U.S. President Donald Trump (C) oversees "Operation Epic Fury" with (L-R) Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles at Mar-a-Lago on February 28, 2026 in Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by HANDOUT / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP)

The Hidden Risks of Declaring Early Victory over Iran

If the Iranian regime survives the ongoing war, it will rebuild and rearm—and its Arab neighbors will pay the price.

May 3, 2026
Khalid Al-Jaber

The ongoing military confrontation in the Persian Gulf region—pitting the United States and Israel against Iran—has spilled far beyond the confines of its direct combatants. Iran’s neighbors, including the Gulf states, Iraq, and Jordan, though not architects of this conflict, have nonetheless emerged as its primary victims. Facing the targeting of energy infrastructure, the disruption of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the erosion of economic confidence, and the retreat of investment flows, the Gulf has found itself positioned as the primary recipient of the fallout from a conflict whose objectives and endgame are defined well beyond its borders.

This reality imposes a strategic question of acute sensitivity, one that resists the comfort of diplomatic platitudes. The Gulf states are not genuine partners in this confrontation, and they put their diplomatic weight into preventing it; nevertheless, they are bearing the consequences of a war whose trajectory and terms of closure lie outside their control.

 

Read the full article at The National Interest here.

Issue: Peace and Security
Country: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

Writer

Executive Director
Khalid Al-Jaber is the Executive Director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs. He is a distinguished scholar and practitioner specializing in political communication and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) affairs. Al Jaber has held prominent leadership positions, including Director of Al-Sharq Studies & Research Center and Editor-in-Chief of The Peninsula, Qatar’s leading… Continue reading The Hidden Risks of Declaring Early Victory over Iran