Afkār is a publication of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, providing short-form analyses, insights, and perspectives on regional issues and developments from the Council's experts and outside contributors. Afkār is published in English and Arabic, and is edited by Omar H. Rahman.
Israel’s expanding war in Lebanon is unfolding alongside a domestic crisis over who controls the country’s decisions of war and peace. As Hezbollah confronts Israel on the battlefield, the Lebanese state is challenging the legitimacy of the group’s military activities—opening an unprecedented struggle over the state’s monopoly on arms.
While Ankara has no desire to defend Iran, Turkish policymakers fear that the collapse or fragmentation of the Iranian state could produce security, migration, and economic crises that would hit Türkiye hardest.