Afkār is a publication of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, providing short-form analyses, insights, and perspectives on regional issues and developments from the Council's experts and outside contributors. Afkār is published in English and Arabic, and is edited by Omar H. Rahman.
Forecasters put oil at $150 to $200 a barrel once the Strait of Hormuz closed. Five months on it has averaged $94—not because the barrels came back, but because the market keeps betting they soon will.
Israel's strike on Doha and Iran's sustained assault on Qatar and Oman have turned two of the region's few remaining neutral channels into targets. If mediators cannot expect basic protection, the diplomacy every future ceasefire depends on will disappear.
A review of reactions to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement—from Arab, Israeli, Iranian, and Western media to leading research centers—reveals that the agreement’s substance, motives, and consequences transcend the scope of conventional defense pacts.
The region is undergoing rapid shifts in its approach to security and alliances, driving states to seek more diverse and flexible arrangements to reduce their reliance on security partnerships with major powers.
Amid the turmoil of the past few years—and broader geopolitical shifts—three major Muslim powers have agreed to a new framework for their mutual security, while providing a path for others to follow.
The signing of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement marks a significant step in relations between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan, representing a shift from sporadic defense cooperation to a more structured framework.