3
September
2026
Recent
Publications
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September 2, 2026
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement marks a historic shift in regional security. It responds to declining U.S. credibility while stopping short of separating regional defense from American power.
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August 19, 2026
As confidence in external security guarantees erodes, Middle Eastern states are reassessing the foundations of regional security. This paper argues that rather than pursuing a NATO-style alliance, the region should develop a layered security architecture built on Gulf integration, diversified partnerships, stronger deterrence, and greater strategic autonomy.
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August 3, 2026
Iran’s economic future will depend on its ability to balance relations with China and the Gulf while rebuilding commercial trust, maintaining access to regional trade networks, and addressing long-standing domestic structural challenges.
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31
August
2026
The New Syria: Regional Reintegration and Reconstruction
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27
August
2026
The War of the Straits: From Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to Suez
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September 8, 2026
The significance of the third Hili Forum—convening in Abu Dhabi on September 7-8 under the theme “Gulf at Crossroads: Conflict, Consequences and Course Correction”—stems from the exceptional timing of the event. The region remains mired in one of its most strategically ambiguous moments in decades, amid rapid transformations. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran remains unresolved—politically… Continue reading Hili Forum 2026: Shaping the Post-War Gulf
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September 6, 2026
Israel’s decision to strike a Syrian airbase at Abu al-Duhur on August 18—after Syrian officials reported, and Türkiye later denied, that a Turkish military delegation had visited the facility—provided the latest evidence of a deepening rivalry between the two powers across a region in flux. Both Israel and Türkiye have expanded their footprints inside Syria… Continue reading What Syria Exposes About Turkish-Israeli Competition
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September 3, 2026
Months of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states hosting U.S. military installations, have reframed the principal question confronting Gulf security. It is no longer simply whether alliances can deter aggression, but whether they offer sufficient agency to shape the conditions under which deterrence succeeds, fails, or gives way to… Continue reading When It Comes to US Security Arrangements, Gulf States Suffer an Agency Deficit
learn more
September 8, 2026
The significance of the third Hili Forum—convening in Abu Dhabi on September 7-8 under the theme “Gulf at Crossroads: Conflict, Consequences and Course Correction”—stems from the exceptional timing of the event. The region remains mired in one of its most strategically ambiguous moments in decades, amid rapid transformations. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran remains unresolved—politically… Continue reading Hili Forum 2026: Shaping the Post-War Gulf
learn more
September 6, 2026
Israel’s decision to strike a Syrian airbase at Abu al-Duhur on August 18—after Syrian officials reported, and Türkiye later denied, that a Turkish military delegation had visited the facility—provided the latest evidence of a deepening rivalry between the two powers across a region in flux. Both Israel and Türkiye have expanded their footprints inside Syria… Continue reading What Syria Exposes About Turkish-Israeli Competition
learn more
September 3, 2026
Months of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states hosting U.S. military installations, have reframed the principal question confronting Gulf security. It is no longer simply whether alliances can deter aggression, but whether they offer sufficient agency to shape the conditions under which deterrence succeeds, fails, or gives way to… Continue reading When It Comes to US Security Arrangements, Gulf States Suffer an Agency Deficit
learn more