The Iran War and an Emerging Geopolitical Order

Issue Brief

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Qatar Foreign Policy in a Changing Region: Preserving Balance and Strategic Autonomy

Afkar

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Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States

Afkar

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Recent
Publications

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May 10, 2026
Issue Brief -
The Iran War and an Emerging Geopolitical Order

The U.S.-Israel-Iran war is more than a regional crisis. It has exposed the limits of global governance, accelerated the decline of post-Cold War assumptions, and pushed states to rethink security, globalization, and strategic adaptation in an emerging multipolar order.

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May 5, 2026
Issue Brief -
The Gulf-Maghreb Strategic Realignment

Key Takeaways   From Pan-Arab Solidarity to Project-Based Regionalism: Gulf–Maghreb relations no longer reflect formal integration drives, but a focus on distinct projects and sectoral cooperation. This offers flexibility, but limits institutional depth. Divergences are Structural, Not Tactical: Disparities among Maghreb states in their Gulf engagement are not temporary or personality-driven. Rather, they reflect structural… Continue reading The Gulf-Maghreb Strategic Realignment

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May 4, 2026
Situation Assessment -
Qatar’s Strategic Balancing Amid Escalation and Disruption

More than just the latest episode in a familiar cycle, the February 28, U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran are a structural rupture for the Gulf, a moment after which the region’s security assumptions cannot simply be reassembled. Qatar had tirelessly but fruitlessly lobbied against renewed escalation. But within 48 hours of the first strikes, Iran had retaliated across all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, and Qatar, home to the United States’ largest regional military installation and the world’s foremost liquefied natural gas (LNG) export complex, absorbed strikes that were, by design, both symbolic and structural.

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May 10, 2026
Issue Brief -
The Iran War and an Emerging Geopolitical Order

The U.S.-Israel-Iran war is more than a regional crisis. It has exposed the limits of global governance, accelerated the decline of post-Cold War assumptions, and pushed states to rethink security, globalization, and strategic adaptation in an emerging multipolar order.

learn more
May 5, 2026
Issue Brief -
The Gulf-Maghreb Strategic Realignment

Key Takeaways   From Pan-Arab Solidarity to Project-Based Regionalism: Gulf–Maghreb relations no longer reflect formal integration drives, but a focus on distinct projects and sectoral cooperation. This offers flexibility, but limits institutional depth. Divergences are Structural, Not Tactical: Disparities among Maghreb states in their Gulf engagement are not temporary or personality-driven. Rather, they reflect structural… Continue reading The Gulf-Maghreb Strategic Realignment

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Events

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13 May 2026
past event 4:00 pm GMT - 4:00 pm GMT
Redrawing the Middle East’s Defense Map: Suppliers, Alliances, Stakes
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11 May 2026
past event 4:00 pm GMT - 5:00 pm GMT
A Lego War? Artificial Intelligence and the New Information Wars
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13 May 2026
past event 4:30 pm GMT - 5:30 pm GMT
Gulf Politics and the Future of US Relations
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13 May 2026
past event 4:00 pm GMT - 4:00 pm GMT

Redrawing the Middle East’s Defense Map: Suppliers, Alliances, Stakes

learn more
11 May 2026
past event 4:00 pm GMT - 5:00 pm GMT

A Lego War? Artificial Intelligence and the New Information Wars

learn more
13 May 2026
past event 4:30 pm GMT - 5:30 pm GMT

Gulf Politics and the Future of US Relations

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Afkar

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May 14, 2026
The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation

The U.S.–Israel Iran war reflects a broader transformation in contemporary conflict, where success is defined less by decisive military victory than by the ability to control escalation. In this evolving strategic environment, the “eye for an eye” principle continues to shape deterrence and reciprocity, but in more calibrated forms. Retaliatory actions are increasingly symbolic and… Continue reading The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation

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May 12, 2026
Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?

Lebanon is expected to soon enter a third round of preliminary, ambassador-level talks with Israel under the auspices of Washington, aimed at paving the way for direct, high-level negotiations. Yet internally, Lebanon is a mess. The country’s president, prime minister, and speaker of parliament—all hailing from different religious sects according to Lebanon’s confessional system—cannot agree… Continue reading Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?

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May 10, 2026
Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States

The Gulf states are right to view Iraq as a security risk. Thirty-six years after Saddam Hussein’s forces crossed into Kuwait, and twenty-three years after the regime fell, Baghdad remains the one Arab capital whose commitments the Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) cannot rely upon. That is not a polemical claim it is a claim… Continue reading Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States

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May 14, 2026
The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation

The U.S.–Israel Iran war reflects a broader transformation in contemporary conflict, where success is defined less by decisive military victory than by the ability to control escalation. In this evolving strategic environment, the “eye for an eye” principle continues to shape deterrence and reciprocity, but in more calibrated forms. Retaliatory actions are increasingly symbolic and… Continue reading The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation

learn more
May 12, 2026
Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?

Lebanon is expected to soon enter a third round of preliminary, ambassador-level talks with Israel under the auspices of Washington, aimed at paving the way for direct, high-level negotiations. Yet internally, Lebanon is a mess. The country’s president, prime minister, and speaker of parliament—all hailing from different religious sects according to Lebanon’s confessional system—cannot agree… Continue reading Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?

learn more
May 10, 2026
Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States

The Gulf states are right to view Iraq as a security risk. Thirty-six years after Saddam Hussein’s forces crossed into Kuwait, and twenty-three years after the regime fell, Baghdad remains the one Arab capital whose commitments the Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) cannot rely upon. That is not a polemical claim it is a claim… Continue reading Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States

learn more