The U.S. midterm elections slated for November 3 constitute a critical temporal threshold in the U.S.-Iranian confrontation. Although President Donald Trump has repeatedly invoked the elections as an inflection point in the war’s trajectory, their significance lies less in setting a deadline for settlement than in potentially changing the incentives governing military escalation. The period… Continue reading U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Against the Electoral Clock

The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated the danger of relying heavily on a single maritime corridor. But the problem extends beyond Hormuz. Ongoing insecurity in the Red Sea and Black Sea means that several routes carrying the world’s energy, food, and goods are under pressure at the same time. When… Continue reading Maritime Disruptions Are Creating a New Economics of Connectivity

In its September/October issue, Foreign Affairs published two different interpretations of the region’s future: “The End of the American Middle East,” by Marc Lynch, and “The New Old Middle East,” by F. Gregory Gause III. These perspectives have implications beyond the immediate impact of today’s confrontations. Has the order that governed the Middle East since… Continue reading In Search of a New Order: Arab Options and Gulf Security