8
September
2026
Recent
Publications
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October 7, 2026
This situation assessment examines how domestic electioneering shapes Israel’s fragmented political landscape, its approach to Gaza, settlement expansion in the West Bank, and military operations and negotiations in Lebanon. It argues that the election outcome may alter the pace and rhetoric of Israeli policy without substantially changing its core objectives.
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September 30, 2026
This situation assessment examines the strategic connection between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab and its implications for Gulf energy trade and maritime security. It argues that a sustainable response requires re-establishing sovereignty over Yemen’s coast and building a Yemeni state capable of guarding its own shores.
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September 29, 2026
Key Takeaways Rather than seeing a transfer of dominance from Russia to China, Central Asia is moving toward multipolarity: While Russia retains extensive security, economic, and human ties, China has become a structural component of the regional economy through trade, energy, and infrastructure. The deeper shift is that no single power monopolizes the region, creating… Continue reading Central Asia in an Emerging International Order: Shifting Strategic Partnerships with the GCC
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September 29, 2026
Key Takeaways Rather than seeing a transfer of dominance from Russia to China, Central Asia is moving toward multipolarity: While Russia retains extensive security, economic, and human ties, China has become a structural component of the regional economy through trade, energy, and infrastructure. The deeper shift is that no single power monopolizes the region, creating… Continue reading Central Asia in an Emerging International Order: Shifting Strategic Partnerships with the GCC
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14
October
2026
Can Sanctions Achieve What Military Force Could Not in Iran?
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17
September
2026
BRICS and the Middle East: What Is at Stake?
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October 12, 2026
On September 30, 2026, the last U.S.-led coalition troops departed Erbil air base in northern Iraq, ending the latest chapter of a military presence in the country that began with the 2003 invasion, briefly ended in 2011, and resumed in 2014 to fight the Islamic State. Baghdad celebrated, Washington claimed victory, and Iran-aligned factions rejoiced.… Continue reading Iraq’s Contested Sovereignty After the U.S. Military Withdrawal
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October 11, 2026
In mid-September, Saudi officials postponed a meeting that was set to be held with their Iranian counterparts in Salalah, Oman, to discuss reopening transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s foreign minister said the meeting had been postponed “in the interest of consensus,” as the focus of ongoing talks between Muscat and Tehran has shifted… Continue reading Who Gets to Write the Gulf’s Postwar Navigation Rules?
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October 8, 2026
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long identified the region as a climate hotspot, pointing to severe water scarcity, rising temperatures, and the vulnerability of coastal areas and major river systems, including the Nile and Tigris-Euphrates. Yet… Continue reading Why Climate Finance Mechanisms Are Widening the MENA Region’s Vulnerability Gap
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October 12, 2026
On September 30, 2026, the last U.S.-led coalition troops departed Erbil air base in northern Iraq, ending the latest chapter of a military presence in the country that began with the 2003 invasion, briefly ended in 2011, and resumed in 2014 to fight the Islamic State. Baghdad celebrated, Washington claimed victory, and Iran-aligned factions rejoiced.… Continue reading Iraq’s Contested Sovereignty After the U.S. Military Withdrawal
learn more
October 11, 2026
In mid-September, Saudi officials postponed a meeting that was set to be held with their Iranian counterparts in Salalah, Oman, to discuss reopening transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s foreign minister said the meeting had been postponed “in the interest of consensus,” as the focus of ongoing talks between Muscat and Tehran has shifted… Continue reading Who Gets to Write the Gulf’s Postwar Navigation Rules?
learn more
October 8, 2026
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long identified the region as a climate hotspot, pointing to severe water scarcity, rising temperatures, and the vulnerability of coastal areas and major river systems, including the Nile and Tigris-Euphrates. Yet… Continue reading Why Climate Finance Mechanisms Are Widening the MENA Region’s Vulnerability Gap
learn more