Publications

On July 2, 2025, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian formally enacted a law suspending Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The move, approved unanimously by Iran’s parliament and endorsed by the Guardian Council, effectively halted inspections and reporting on Iran’s nuclear program by the agency “until the security of the nuclear facilities is guaranteed.” The legislation marks the most significant shift in Iran’s nuclear posture since the country’s accession to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970.

As the Arab Gulf states transition away from reliance on hydrocarbons and seek to diversify their economies, governments are fostering industries that complement the oil sector, like mid- and downstream industries, logistics and increasingly, sectors less related to hydrocarbons, like tourism and finance. This pivot is underpinned by a digital transformation.

This policy note was completed by the author in August 2025 and therefore preceded the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September.  Introduction Since the turn of the millennium, the politico-economic nexus between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and East Asia has significantly grown. Japan’s… Continue reading Reinvigorating Japan-GCC State Ties: The Case for Enhancing Top-Level Diplomacy

Relations between Algeria and Morocco are passing through a critical phase of instability, fueled by deep-seated distrust, historical grievances, skewed perceptions of escalation, a rapid arms race, and competing regional ambitions. As a result, both are increasingly relying on military deterrence over diplomacy. This situation is further exacerbated by their antagonistic views on numerous issues, particularly the Western Sahara dispute

Tariffs are pushing East Asian LNG customers toward the U.S.: The industrial impacts of Trump’s tariffs, alongside intense political pressures, are pushing major energy importers such as China, India, Japan and South Korea to purchase American—rather than Gulf—LNG, to narrow trade imbalances with the U.S.

This report examines the rising strategic significance of economic corridors, with a particular focus on the Gulf region’s growing role in shaping their development.

The collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024 marked a watershed moment for Syria and the wider Middle East after almost a decade of civil war. Throughout the conflict, Syria constituted a staging ground for geopolitical rivalries, spawning proxy conflicts and involving great powers, including the United States and Russia. Among the most consequential results was the emergence of a Kurdish-dominated enclave in northeastern Syria

As geopolitical competition intensifies and energy security remains paramount, Japan and South Korea are recalibrating their roles in the Middle East. Despite a long-standing economic and strategic rivalry, both countries—key East Asian middle powers—now face a shared imperative: to cooperate on issues ranging from maritime security and defense diplomacy to renewable energy and Gaza reconstruction. This policy paper explores how Tokyo and Seoul can balance competition with pragmatic collaboration to advance mutual interests and contribute to regional stability.

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025 sent shockwaves through the Gulf, not for its immediate economic damage, but for what it revealed: the fragility of the Gulf’s security assumptions, the limits of U.S. protection, and the looming threat to vital trade routes. While oil prices and markets quickly rebounded, the psychological and strategic consequences have left Gulf states grappling with new uncertainties. This analysis explores the conflict’s economic aftermath and what it means for the future of GCC resilience, defense, and diplomacy.

The Red Sea has been at the center of a radical shift in the global maritime security landscape since October 2023, when Yemen’s Houthis (also known as Ansar Allah) launched a campaign of repeated attacks on commercial and military vessels in one of the world’s most important waterways. These attacks, which the Houthis announced were… Continue reading Yemen’s Quagmire: Why Isn’t U.S. Might Winning?

In recent years, Algeria and neighboring Mali have clashed repeatedly, in a string of diplomatic disagreements and security incidents with major implications for stability in the broader Sahel region. The two countries share a porous, 854-mile (1,374-kilometer) border, through a remote desert region that serves as a base for both separatist militants and jihadist groups. In mid-March 2025, a cross-border incident involving the shooting down of a Malian drone sparked a new diplomatic crisis.

More than 13 years of armed conflict have left Syria a fractured patchwork of isolated regions controlled by rival factions. Yet the dramatic collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024 opened a rare window of opportunity to reunify the state under a single authority.