Afkār is a publication of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, providing short-form analyses, insights, and perspectives on regional issues and developments from the Council's experts and outside contributors. Afkār is published in English and Arabic, and is edited by Omar H. Rahman.
The midterm elections did not strip Trump of his authority to wage war, but they have increased its political cost, ushering the Gulf into a new phase as U.S. electoral calculations intersect with the future of the regional conflict.
The Democratic landslide was a repudiation of Trump’s war with Iran and the broken promises of his presidency. But whether electoral humiliation pushes him toward ending the conflict or escalating it further remains an open—and dangerous—question.
The failure of military force to resolve a confrontation presents the danger that nuclear weapons might be employed under the guise of a “limited strike.” In the Gulf, such a scenario would have grave implications for regional security and the future of the international order.