Israel’s expanding war in Lebanon is unfolding alongside a domestic crisis over who controls the country’s decisions of war and peace. As Hezbollah confronts Israel on the battlefield, the Lebanese state is challenging the legitimacy of the group’s military activities—opening an unprecedented struggle over the state’s monopoly on arms.
The UN-mandated International Stabilization Force for Gaza is likely to entrench rather than alleviate Gaza’s crisis—offering a vague, one-sided framework that sustains Israel’s control, limits aid and reconstruction, and risks trapping the territory in perpetual political and humanitarian purgatory.
Israel’s 12-day war with Iran achieved dramatic tactical successes—including assassinations, sabotage and U.S. military involvement—but ultimately failed to trigger Iran’s internal collapse or strategic defeat, instead galvanizing Iranian national unity, advancing its nuclear ambiguity and raising the risk of deeper regional escalation in a future.