Afkār is a publication of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, providing short-form analyses, insights, and perspectives on regional issues and developments from the Council's experts and outside contributors. Afkār is published in English and Arabic, and is edited by Omar H. Rahman.
When Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia in September, it likely did not expect a U.S.-Israel war against Iran to test it so soon. Now Islamabad’s credibility could be on the line.
The U.S.-Israel attack on Iran risks deepening global economic problems and pushing Gulf states toward crisis. QatarEnergy’s halt of LNG production underscores the scale of the risks this war entails.
Iran’s strikes on Gulf states risk drawing the region into a wider war that could reshape the Middle East’s strategic balance. For Gulf governments, the most consequential decision may not be how to retaliate, but whether to enter the conflict at all.
Iran’s retaliation following U.S.–Israeli strikes reflects a strategic miscalculation that risks undermining Gulf neutrality and weakening regional mediation efforts, thereby complicating prospects for de-escalation.
Washington’s approach to trade has roiled markets and relationships, but it has also created opportunities for Gulf energy producers, especially as the stability of long-term LNG contracts gain in their appeal.
Iran has entered renewed negotiations with Washington convinced that only the perception that it is ready to fight—not to make concessions—can produce a durable diplomatic outcome.