For decades, the middle class has served as the backbone of stability in Arab societies. It is the class that produces the teachers, doctors, engineers, civil servants and small-scale entrepreneurs whose income allows local markets and businesses to flourish.
However, since the turn of the millennium, it has faced successive crises, from the domestic upheavals of the Arab Spring and the subsequent decline in oil prices to the coronavirus pandemic, surging prices following the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israeli war on Gaza, severely impacting trade and tourism in neighboring countries.
These back-to-back political, security and economic crises have not left middle-income families a moment to catch their breath, as each new crisis begins before the effects of the previous one subside. Qatar has recognized the gravity of this issue, establishing human and social development as the core pillar of its Vision 2030. In November 2025, the second World Summit for Social Development adopted the Doha Political Declaration, underscoring that social justice, decent work and social protection can no longer remain peripheral to the development agenda.
High Costs vs. Low Wages
Inflation is a silent threat to the middle class, eroding the value of salaries even as their nominal rate stays steady. A salary that once lasted a month now runs out halfway through, while personal savings lose their value. In Egypt, urban inflation hit a record high of 38 percent in September 2023, before easing to around 14.6 percent by May 2026. Yet slowing inflation means not that prices return to their previous levels, but simply that they rise at a slower pace—while wages continue to lag. The burden is further compounded by the fact that families are now forced to pay out-of-pocket for services, like education and healthcare, that were previously accessible at an acceptable standard.
Lebanon remains the most extreme example. The World Bank has suggested that the crisis there since 2019 is among the world’s worst economic crises since the mid-19th century. The Lebanese pound has lost more than 95 percent of its value, and many people’s life savings evaporated within months.
The Arab Opinion Index 2025 underscored the magnitude of this pressure: only a quarter of respondents indicated that their income allowed them to save, while 41 percent stated that it barely covers their basic needs. Such individuals are vulnerable as they neither benefit from social welfare programs for the poor, nor have the savings to protect them against sudden illness or job loss.
The decline of the middle class is not totally new. Its share of Egypt’s population had already fallen from 48 percent in 2000 to 44 percent in 2011, according to the UN. A World Bank report from 2016, employing another measure for the middle class, showed that it had shrunk to less than one-tenth of Yemen’s population by 2010.
In other words, we entered this decade with a middle class that was already exhausted. The 2022 data from the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) revealed that the richest 10 percent of the Arab region’s population own more than 80 percent of its wealth, while that of the poorest half had declined by one-third since the onset of the pandemic. The report also observed that most tax reforms in the region impose heavier burdens on the poor and the middle class than on the wealthy, as they rely on consumption taxes—levies paid by everyone at the same rate, regardless of their level of income.
The Foundation of Social Stability
The value of the middle class cannot be measured solely by economic data; it also serves as a vital safety valve that maintains societal balance. In his work Politics, Aristotle argued that the “best constituted” society is that with a robust middle class—a group that “for they do not, like the poor, covet their neighbors’ goods; nor do others covet theirs.” Members of this class have something to lose, yet they also hope to progress. Consequently, they tend to favor gradual, peaceful reform over confrontation. People who lose both their assets and their hope can shift from being a stabilizing force to a source of social tension.
The Greek philosopher’s insights align with those of economist Ishac Diwan on the central role of the middle class in the region’s 2011 upheavals. He argued that the educated middle class was at the heart of events, having realized that the fruits of economic growth were not reaching them—even as several of these nations were experiencing positive overall growth.
Individuals do not gauge the economy by headline GDP. They assess it based on what actually reaches their households, and their own sense of justice. This is reflected in indicators of trust: according to the Arab Opinion Index, 84 percent of respondents believe that corruption is widespread in their countries. Low levels of trust make reform significantly more difficult; when citizens are asked to endure the removal of subsidies or the imposition of new taxes, yet they lack faith in the equitable distribution of these burdens, reform itself becomes a crisis. Consequently, protecting the middle class is a prerequisite for success in any economic program.
The middle class serves as a primary engine of the economy, driving consumption and demand for goods and services, even as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a pivotal role in job creation. When this class weakens, demand declines, and many individuals are forced to take on additional work or turn to the informal economy, and young people postpone marriage or home ownership. Furthermore, the role of education as a pathway to upward mobility is undermined, as a university degree no longer guarantees a decent income.
Even more concerning is the emigration of skilled professionals, craftspeople, intellectuals and students. Arab Barometer surveys in 2023 and 2024 found that some 46 percent of Tunisians and 42 percent of Jordanians were considering emigration, driven primarily by economic factors. Young people and university graduates were the most inclined to leave, costing Arab societies the very doctors, engineers and programmers—in whom they have invested years of education—who are best equipped to lead a recovery.
Reviving the Middle Class
Gulf states enjoy greater stability in this regard, thanks to their financial resources and social welfare systems that have shielded their citizens from sharp spikes in the cost of living. Notably, among the nationalities surveyed by the Arab Barometer, Kuwaitis were the least likely to wish to emigrate.
Yet this does not negate the challenges: rising costs for housing and private education, alongside a heavy reliance on public-sector employment. The third Qatar National Development Strategy 2024-2030 prioritized human development and increased citizen participation in the private sector.
The Gulf states also contribute indirectly to regional economic stability by hosting millions of Arab workers whose remittances support families back home. Their investments in job-creating projects could help safeguard the middle class in their countries.
Restoring the middle class requires a holistic approach, covering five key areas.
The first involves protecting its purchasing power by controlling inflation and periodically adjusting wages and pensions to keep pace with the cost of living. The second focuses on tax equity, ensuring that everyone contributes in proportion to their means. The third entails expanding social protection to those who are neither poor nor rich—e.g. self-employed individuals and small business owners—who often lack adequate health insurance or retirement coverage.
The fourth area centers on improving public services—quality education, accessible healthcare and suitable housing—by which the state can support the middle class. Finally, there is a need for transparency: accurate, regular data on income and spending, and honesty with the public about the costs of reforms and who will bear them.
The erosion of the middle class in the Arab world is more than an economic issue; it affects the stability of societies and public trust in institutions. The middle class provides society with balance and imbues the economy with vitality. It is an asset built over generations, yet can be lost within a few years.
Countries that prioritize protecting their middle class are those best positioned to navigate the coming years with minimal losses, and to transform a group currently anxious about the present into a force that is confident in its future.
