In December, the Gulf Cooperation Council and Japan concluded their first round of discussions on a free trade agreement (FTA). History suggests this was the start of a process that may take years, if not decades—reaching an FTA between the GCC and South Korea took 15 years, with many bumps along the way. Nevertheless, this first step is important and indicative of shifting priorities in both the GCC and Japan, especially with the return of a multipolar world, the emerging trend of deglobalization and intensifying global instability.
As the U.S. reassesses its commitment to the Middle East, officials have simultaneously spoken of pivoting to Asia. Ironically, GCC countries are doing the same. Among the bloc’s potential partners in this shift is Japan, a country with significant strategic and economic stakes in the Gulf. Despite decades of interactions largely based on energy exports, however, the GCC’s relationship with Japan is far from reaching its full potential. Both parties stand at critical junctures, reconsidering their global and regional roles in a world no longer dominated by the U.S.—the security guarantor for both for decades.
Japan, with its dependence on the Gulf for energy and its broader strategic goals, also has ample reasons to deepen its engagement with the region. However, for such a relationship to thrive, both sides need to overcome the limitations of their current engagement, which remains largely transactional, and seize the opportunities presented by a multipolar world.
Historically, Japan’s ties with the GCC have been driven by mutual economic interests. Japan relies heavily on Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE for its energy needs, particularly hydrocarbons. The GCC has benefited from Japan’s technological expertise and capital investments, but this relationship has made only limited forays into broader strategic collaboration.
Today’s global landscape is changing the equation for each. Both Japan and the GCC find themselves grappling with questions about their place and objectives in a multipolar world. The Indo-Pacific region dominates Japan’s foreign policy, while the Middle East is referenced primarily in terms of energy security and protecting maritime trade routes. Yet the GCC is emerging as a more assertive actor, leveraging its hydrocarbon wealth to enhance its regional and global influence.
GCC countries have increasingly sought to diversify their foreign partnerships, reducing reliance on traditional Western allies and building stronger connections with Asian powers like China and India. Japan, however, has not capitalized on this trend to the same extent. Tokyo’s cautious foreign policy and focus on the Indo-Pacific have limited its engagement with the Gulf, leaving a gap in its strategic approach that it can ill afford in the face of such competition.
Obstacles and Opportunities
Several factors have prevented GCC-Japan relations from developing into a strategic partnership. Chief among them is the lack of sustained cultural and institutional engagement. Unlike Japan’s interactions with Western nations, its ties with the GCC lack the depth nurtured by academic exchanges, think-tank collaborations and cultural diplomacy, all of which could build a stronger foundation for mutual understanding.
Japanese media and policy discourse have also largely overlooked the GCC, relegating it to a peripheral role. This limited attention has reduced the region’s visibility among Japanese policymakers, contributing to the omission of the GCC from Japan’s key policy documents, including its national security and defense strategies. This neglect reinforces the perception that the relationship is purely transactional and not integral to Japan’s broader strategic ambitions.
Moreover, the inertia of past assumptions continues to influence the relationship. For decades, both Japan and the GCC operated within a global order dominated by the U.S., in which their respective roles were stable and well-defined. However, the ongoing shift toward multipolarity necessitates a re-evaluation of these roles. Such transitions, while much needed, are often slow and fraught with resistance to change. This reluctance to adapt has, to date, prevented the relationship from reaching its full potential.
Despite these challenges, there is significant potential for Japan and the GCC to deepen their partnership. Energy security remains a cornerstone of their relationship, but this could be expanded beyond hydrocarbons to include renewable energy and hydrogen technologies. The GCC represents a reliable partner in Japan’s efforts to diversify its energy sources. For the Gulf, Japan’s technological expertise offers a pathway to accelerate the transition toward a greener economy, in line with GCC states’ ambitious economic diversification plans.
Maritime security is another critical domain. Both regions depend on secure sea lanes for trade and transporting energy. Joint initiatives in counter-piracy and maritime safety could not only protect these vital routes but also foster greater trust and coordination. Given the increasing geopolitical tensions in Indo-Pacific and Middle Eastern waters, such collaboration is more urgent than ever.
Technological collaboration presents yet another avenue for growth. Japan’s leadership in artificial intelligence, robotics and green technologies aligns well with the GCC’s efforts to diversify its economies beyond hydrocarbons. For instance, joint ventures in robotics could revolutionize industries such as healthcare, manufacturing and logistics, while partnerships in green technology could address shared concerns about climate change and sustainability.
Cultural and academic engagement is equally important. Robust exchange programs, collaborative research initiatives and public diplomacy efforts could help overcome the lack of mutual understanding hindering deeper ties. The success of such soft power initiatives in other regions demonstrates their potential to transform the GCC-Japan relationship.
Toward a Strategic Partnership
The evolving global order presents an opportunity for Japan and the GCC to transcend the transactional nature of their historical ties. Both regions face common challenges, from ensuring energy and maritime security to navigating the uncertainties of a multipolar world. By embracing a partnership rooted in shared interests and forward-looking collaboration, they can unlock the full potential of their relationship.
A strategic partnership between Japan and the GCC would not only serve their respective interests but also provide a model for cooperation in an increasingly fragmented world. For Japan, this partnership offers a chance to enhance its global influence and secure critical energy supplies. For the GCC, deeper ties with Japan represent a way to diversify its alliances and leverage advanced technology for economic growth.
The path forward lies in recognizing the untapped possibilities within their relationship and committing to a shared vision that prioritizes innovation, resilience and mutual respect. Both regions must act decisively, moving beyond past assumptions and embracing the realities of a changing world. The rewards of such collaboration could resonate far beyond their respective borders, shaping a new paradigm for international partnerships.
