Gulf states today face a security dilemma that is less about their advanced arsenals or the foreign military bases on their soil than about the authority to make security-related decisions. Who holds the power to decide when to wage war, when interests diverge and external guarantees are subject to the calculations of major powers? For… Continue reading The Global Security Forum: From Protective Guarantees to Self-Reliance
Afkar Issue: Regional Relations
Houthi Attacks and Changing Rules of Engagement
The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a deadly strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on October 10, mark a dangerous escalation. The confrontation has become more than an extension of the war in Yemen. It can no longer be understood as a limited military clash between a state and an armed group.… Continue reading Houthi Attacks and Changing Rules of Engagement
Mediation for Long-Term Stability: A Vision for Gulf Security
With indirect talks between Washington and Tehran stalling and tensions rising around the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states face tough choices with far-reaching implications that go beyond threats to energy supplies or increased transport and insurance costs, extending to cities, critical infrastructure and national economies. As Qatar and Oman intensify their mediation efforts, the Gulf… Continue reading Mediation for Long-Term Stability: A Vision for Gulf Security
Hybrid Warfare: From Europe to the Middle East
Five years in, the Russia-Ukraine war has evolved into a protracted, costly confrontation that has drained the military and economic resources of both belligerents. Yet neither side has fully managed to impose its will on its adversary. This prolonged war of attrition is also defining the nature of the hybrid warfare that dominates today’s strategic… Continue reading Hybrid Warfare: From Europe to the Middle East
Yemen Shines Spotlight on Mecca Agreement Moving from Promise to Practice
The recent escalation around Saudi Arabia and Yemen has transformed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement from an ambitious political declaration into an immediate test of regional security cooperation. Signed on August 7 by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan, the pact was presented as a significant step toward a more autonomous and institutionalized form of collective… Continue reading Yemen Shines Spotlight on Mecca Agreement Moving from Promise to Practice
The UN and the Fracturing of the World Order
The UN General Assembly convened its 81st session under the title “Restoring Trust, Managing Transformation: A United Nations That Delivers for All”, which is less of a diplomatic slogan than an acknowledgment of crisis. The world body faces a growing dilemma: a declining confidence in the international order and the UN’s ability to uphold the… Continue reading The UN and the Fracturing of the World Order
Bab Al-Mandab Tests the Region’s Security Architecture
The Houthis’ advance on the key port city of Mocha, which severed the main road connecting Taiz to the Red Sea, has transformed the coast from another battleground in a domestic conflict into an integral element of security in the Red Sea, the Gulf and beyond. The escalation consolidated Houthi control over the Bab al-Mandab… Continue reading Bab Al-Mandab Tests the Region’s Security Architecture
The Gulf Caught Between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab
A development that was a mere strategic hypothetical a few weeks ago has now become a dangerous reality on the ground. The Houthis’ rapid advance along Yemen’s western coast, in a push to seize control of Mocha, Dhubab and the island of Mayyun (or Perim) at the mouth of Bab al-Mandab, signals a qualitative shift… Continue reading The Gulf Caught Between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab
Hili Forum 2026: Shaping the Post-War Gulf
The significance of the third Hili Forum—convening in Abu Dhabi on September 7-8 under the theme “Gulf at Crossroads: Conflict, Consequences and Course Correction”—stems from the exceptional timing of the event. The region remains mired in one of its most strategically ambiguous moments in decades, amid rapid transformations. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran remains unresolved—politically… Continue reading Hili Forum 2026: Shaping the Post-War Gulf
What Syria Exposes About Turkish-Israeli Competition
Israel’s decision to strike a Syrian airbase at Abu al-Duhur on August 18—after Syrian officials reported, and Türkiye later denied, that a Turkish military delegation had visited the facility—provided the latest evidence of a deepening rivalry between the two powers across a region in flux. Both Israel and Türkiye have expanded their footprints inside Syria… Continue reading What Syria Exposes About Turkish-Israeli Competition
When It Comes to US Security Arrangements, Gulf States Suffer an Agency Deficit
Months of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states hosting U.S. military installations, have reframed the principal question confronting Gulf security. It is no longer simply whether alliances can deter aggression, but whether they offer sufficient agency to shape the conditions under which deterrence succeeds, fails, or gives way to… Continue reading When It Comes to US Security Arrangements, Gulf States Suffer an Agency Deficit
Türkiye’s Calculus in Lebanon: A Cautious Strategic Presence
For the past two decades, Lebanon has been of limited strategic importance for Türkiye, notwithstanding Turkish development projects—especially in Beirut and the North—and efforts to foster diplomatic ties with the Lebanese state and balanced relations with Lebanon’s various political factions. Türkiye has not viewed Lebanon as a primary sphere of influence, in contrast to Syria,… Continue reading Türkiye’s Calculus in Lebanon: A Cautious Strategic Presence
Strategy Without Gains: How Iran Squandered its Regional Clout
Iran has built a security doctrine on shifting battles outside its borders, encircling adversaries with proxies and avoiding direct confrontation whenever possible. The test of this strategy is whether it can translate clout into security and sustainable gains at a reasonable cost. Yet from Syria to Yemen, Iran’s influence has entailed staggering losses, while its… Continue reading Strategy Without Gains: How Iran Squandered its Regional Clout
The Mecca Agreement: From Imported Security to Regional Joint Security
The extent of regional and international media coverage of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan reflects profound shifts in regional power balances. The new partnership raises questions well beyond the text of the agreement, and prompts an examination of the security trajectories that will shape the future of the Middle… Continue reading The Mecca Agreement: From Imported Security to Regional Joint Security
The Mecca Agreement: From Diversifying Alliances to Regional Strategic Balance
The Middle East has reached a point where it can no longer sustain a security framework governed by a “single ally.” Nor can it afford to place its security at the mercy of major powers, whose priorities shift with changes in leadership, shifts in interests, or the outbreak of war. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement… Continue reading The Mecca Agreement: From Diversifying Alliances to Regional Strategic Balance
What Is the Mecca Joint Defense Pact—and What It Is Not?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan announced a trilateral mutual defense pact signed in Mecca by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The agreement is the outcome of intensive consultations among the three countries and represents a significant step toward closer… Continue reading What Is the Mecca Joint Defense Pact—and What It Is Not?
Regional Security After the Mecca Agreement
The Mecca Agreement, a defense deal signed by Riyadh, Ankara, and Islamabad on August 7, builds upon discussions apparently dating back to December 2023, as well as historical ties, shared strategic interests, and existing military cooperation. It emerges within a regional security environment characterized by multiple threats, from missile and drone attacks to terrorism, cyber-attacks, disruptions to maritime corridors, and the targeting of critical infrastructure. The agreement reflects less a response to a specific,… Continue reading Regional Security After the Mecca Agreement
How the Middle East Became Trapped in a War of Attrition
Just a few months ago, experts were predicting that Israeli-American strikes on Iran would create a new reality in the Middle East, shifting the regional balances of power and deterrence against Iran. This hypothesis was based on a clear premise: Either Tehran would be forced to retreat under the weight of its losses, or the… Continue reading How the Middle East Became Trapped in a War of Attrition
The Post-October 7 Era: Iranian-Israeli Attrition and Saudi-Turkish Ascendancy
The Middle East has seen dramatic geopolitical shifts since October 7, 2023. From the war on Gaza to confrontations in Lebanon and Yemen, the fall of the Assad regime, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, along with Iran’s attacks on Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, interconnected conflicts have impacted not only… Continue reading The Post-October 7 Era: Iranian-Israeli Attrition and Saudi-Turkish Ascendancy
Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
Despite a resumption in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, and the resulting re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and its major Gulf oil-producing rivals are in a race to boost their respective oil exports and restore or carve out their share of critical markets. This can be seen in Iran’s bid to export… Continue reading Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
The Iranian Duality the Region Must Stop Indulging
In the early hours of July 7, an anti-ship missile struck Al Rekayyat, a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tanker, as it left the Strait of Hormuz. A fire spread through the engine room, and for a few hours, the region waited to find out whether the vessel would be the latest casualty of the U.S.-Iranian war’s worst maritime incident yet. Al Rekayyat belongs to transportation firm Nakilat, majority-owned by Qatar, which has facilitated extensive negotiations between Washington and… Continue reading The Iranian Duality the Region Must Stop Indulging
Syria Moves to Manage its Differences with Hezbollah
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani’s July 4 visit to the Lebanese capital came at a highly sensitive moment in the region. It coincided with negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, mounting pressure over Hezbollah’s weaponry, and Arab and regional maneuvering that is reshaping the balance of power in the region—all in the shadow of the transformations… Continue reading Syria Moves to Manage its Differences with Hezbollah
Syria’s New Energy Diplomacy Is Turning Geography into Political Capital
For much of the Assad era, Syria’s geography was viewed primarily through a military lens. Internal security and regime survival consistently took precedence over economic integration, leaving the country’s strategic location between the Gulf, Türkiye, Iraq, and the Mediterranean largely underutilized. The civil war that began in 2011 only deepened Syria’s isolation, severing trade routes,… Continue reading Syria’s New Energy Diplomacy Is Turning Geography into Political Capital
Israeli-Turkish Competition Intensifies in Syria and Beyond
During a recent television interview with Tamir Hayman, Israel’s former military intelligence chief mentioned that Israel had hoped to pressure Tehran at the outset of the war it launched with the United States in late February by instigating a Kurdish insurgency inside Iran. Hayman claimed, however, that this “centerpiece” of a wider plan to bring down the Islamic… Continue reading Israeli-Turkish Competition Intensifies in Syria and Beyond
The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
The Strait of Hormuz is back at the center of regional and international controversy—not because its geography has changed, but because Iran has pressed on with its political approach, refusing to make any tangible shift in its regional policies. Even after signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S., pledging to restore maritime traffic through the waterway within 30 days, Tehran continues to use the Strait for leverage, threatening the security of… Continue reading The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
Can the Lebanon-Israel Framework Survive Reality?
On June 26, Lebanon and Israel signed a U.S.-sponsored framework agreement in Washington aimed at ending the war across their border, organizing a gradual Israeli withdrawal, and restoring the Lebanese state’s monopoly over security decision-making and the use of force on its territory. Yet the crux of the agreement lies not in its content, but in… Continue reading Can the Lebanon-Israel Framework Survive Reality?
Are UAE-Pakistan Relations Unraveling?
Over roughly the past year, a perception has taken hold in the mainstream press and on social media that Pakistan’s relations with the United Arab Emirates are in decline. Driven primarily by the notion that the UAE’s relationship with Pakistan’s rival, India, is ascendant and that Pakistan has drifted closer to Saudi Arabia, the negative… Continue reading Are UAE-Pakistan Relations Unraveling?
A Gulf NATO: The Strategic Necessity of a Collective Deterrence System
The term “Gulf NATO” is often used in political discussions as a slogan or a theoretical concept, but its roots go much deeper. The idea would not be to create a new military alliance from scratch, but rather to develop the region’s existing security structure, which emerged with the establishment of the GCC in 1981 and developed over subsequent years with the creation of the Peninsula Shield Force, the first institutional attempt to translate the concept of… Continue reading A Gulf NATO: The Strategic Necessity of a Collective Deterrence System
How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
The war in Iran marks a major inflection point in the security outlook and external partnerships of Gulf countries. In many ways, it mirrors the geopolitical awakening that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered for Europeans after 2022. Like their European counterparts, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states now face the dilemma of relying on a security partner—the United States—that remains indispensable yet increasingly… Continue reading How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
Is a New Strategic Bloc Emerging in the Middle East?
For months prior to the outbreak of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, regional powers began laying the groundwork for a security partnership that could reshape Middle East geopolitics. The foreign ministers of Türkiye, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have convened on multiple occasions to coordinate responses to an increasingly dangerous and chaotic security environment, including recently at… Continue reading Is a New Strategic Bloc Emerging in the Middle East?
The GCC Will Not Unify on Iran
The war that has unfolded across the Gulf has done more than shatter the region’s security architecture. It has also underscored a long-standing reality: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has never operated as a unified actor in its approach toward Iran, and it is unlikely to do so after the conflict ends. The GCC is… Continue reading The GCC Will Not Unify on Iran
Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
The United States and Iran departed from high-level, direct talks in Pakistan without a peace deal. According to the American side, it was their continued disagreement over the nuclear question that ultimately stood in the way. Yet conspicuously absent from the table were the Arab Gulf states, which have absorbed five weeks of strikes on their territories in a war… Continue reading Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
Türkiye’s Strategic Balancing Act in the Iran War
When the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28, Türkiye did not hesitate to stake out its position. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the strikes as a violation of Iranian sovereignty and closed Turkish airspace to American combat operations. Yet in the same breath, Ankara denounced Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Gulf Cooperation Council states as… Continue reading Türkiye’s Strategic Balancing Act in the Iran War
Gulf States in the Crossfire of a War They Tried To Prevent
When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, Tehran responded, in large part, by attacking military installations and civilian infrastructure in the Gulf states. The Islamic Republic’s strategy was to immediately raise and disperse the cost of the war by destabilizing the global economy and pressuring the Gulf states… Continue reading Gulf States in the Crossfire of a War They Tried To Prevent
GCC Air Defense Between Challenge and Transformation
The Arab Gulf has entered a critical phase in which its security architecture is being actively reshaped. The expansion of the U.S.–Israeli confrontation with Iran, and the resulting spillover across the region, has moved the Gulf from a peripheral theater to a central arena of escalation. Cross-border attacks targeting vital infrastructure—using ballistic missiles such as… Continue reading GCC Air Defense Between Challenge and Transformation
How the Gulf States Can Navigate the Middle East’s New Alliance Politics
Alliance politics is returning to the Middle East in ways that recall earlier eras of regional competition, but with a far more complex geometry. Recent remarks by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggesting that a broader network of alliances is emerging around Israel, linking partners such as India, Greece, and Cyprus alongside other regional actors, reflect a wider reconfiguration of regional alignments accelerated… Continue reading How the Gulf States Can Navigate the Middle East’s New Alliance Politics
Six, or One Bloc of Six?
At first glance, readers might wonder about the meaning of this title and its implications. However, the answer will become clear in the lines that follow, which aim to provide an interpretation that clarifies the title’s significance. As the US–Israeli war against Iran passes its sixteenth day, and despite the uncertainty around its end, it… Continue reading Six, or One Bloc of Six?
How Does Türkiye View the U.S.–Israel War on Iran?
The ongoing war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran aims to weaken the Iranian regime and destroy its military infrastructure, including both its existing and potential weapons capabilities. At the outset of the conflict, some observers expected that military pressure might trigger internal unrest in Iran and eventually lead to regime change.… Continue reading How Does Türkiye View the U.S.–Israel War on Iran?
How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
The Israeli-U.S. war on Iran has thrown Gulf societies into a complex state of anxiety and emotional vigilance. This reaction is not merely a response to rapid military developments. It reflects a mindset shaped over decades by historical experience and repeated security crises. As regional tensions escalate and threaten the Gulf’s vital interests, public sentiment… Continue reading How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
Pakistan’s Iran Trap
A defense pact is only as credible as the state that signs it. When Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told reporters on March 3 that he had warned Tehran not to strike Saudi Arabia—invoking a mutual defense agreement signed just six months ago—he did not sound like a man laying down a tripwire. He sounded like one hoping no one would… Continue reading Pakistan’s Iran Trap
Israel’s Somaliland Gambit Reflects a Doctrine of Endless Escalation
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, ushered in by Foreign Minister Gideon Saar’s visit on January 6, is a geopolitical watershed that sheds further light on Israel’s evolving regional strategy after October 7. Much of the early commentary has been distorted by claims that the move is part of a transactional scheme to relocate Palestinians en… Continue reading Israel’s Somaliland Gambit Reflects a Doctrine of Endless Escalation
Momentous change sweeps Yemen as STC overreaches in Hadramawt
In little over a month, Yemen has undergone significant changes on the ground and in the political dynamics underpinning more than ten years of war. In early December, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) initiated a military operation in the governorates of Hadramawt and al-Mahra that brought nearly the entirety of southern and eastern Yemen under… Continue reading Momentous change sweeps Yemen as STC overreaches in Hadramawt
As War Looms, Lebanon Is Forced to Negotiate Under Fire
When Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced in October that his country was prepared to engage in indirect negotiations with Israel, it marked a rupture with decades of political taboo—and was a tacit admission of how precarious Lebanon’s position has become. The move was not in response to a sudden diplomatic opening. It reflected something more… Continue reading As War Looms, Lebanon Is Forced to Negotiate Under Fire
As Renewal of Iran-Israel War Looms, What Lessons Can Be Learned from June?
Since Israel’s 12-day war with Iran came to an end last June, the prospect of a return to fighting has loomed large, primarily because Israel has yet to achieve all of its goals vis-a-vis Iran and may be determined to do so. Though the war was likely driven by more than one consideration, Israel’s overarching… Continue reading As Renewal of Iran-Israel War Looms, What Lessons Can Be Learned from June?
With Mediation More Important Than Ever, Mediators Must Be Protected
Conflict mediation has emerged as one of the most indispensable tools in the contemporary international system. At a time when great-power competition intensifies across multiple domains, political, economic, and technological, the ability of neutral mediators to facilitate communication and reduce the risks of escalation is more crucial than ever. Yet despite its importance, conflict mediation… Continue reading With Mediation More Important Than Ever, Mediators Must Be Protected
With Ethiopia’s GERD Active, Tensions Mount Along the Nile
After years of mounting tensions between Nile River Basin countries over Ethiopia’s plans to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) far upstream, the project was finally inaugurated on September 9 without a new agreement in place for the distribution of the Nile’s vital water resources. For Egypt and Sudan, who are downstream from the… Continue reading With Ethiopia’s GERD Active, Tensions Mount Along the Nile
Are Mediterranean Gas Fields Gold Mines or Volcanoes?
The Mediterranean is a region more practiced at crisis management than resolution. From Cyprus to Palestine, Lebanon to Libya, migration to energy, the region’s chronic fault lines simmer beneath the surface, flitting between active and dormant states like geopolitical volcanoes. Time and again, the states attempting to contain or capitalize on these crises end up… Continue reading Are Mediterranean Gas Fields Gold Mines or Volcanoes?
Israel’s Strike on Doha: What It Means for the Region
On September 9, Israel’s military fired several missiles into a residential neighborhood in Doha targeting a meeting of senior Hamas officials discussing the latest American proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza. Although six people were killed, including a Qatari security official, none were the primary targets. The global backlash to the strike has been intense,… Continue reading Israel’s Strike on Doha: What It Means for the Region
Five Years On, UAE-Israel Normalization Weathers the Gaza Storm
When the United Arab Emirates normalized relations with Israel five years ago, it likely expected a degree of discomfort given negative public opinion of Israel in the region amid its ongoing military occupation of Palestine. But the intensification of violent conflict—first in May 2021, and then on a much larger scale after October 7, 2023—has… Continue reading Five Years On, UAE-Israel Normalization Weathers the Gaza Storm
Is the United States Set to Re-Engage in Libya?
A quiet visit to Libya by a senior Trump advisor has raised the specter of Washington taking a renewed interest in the North African country—and the question of whether such engagement could help finally resolve the country’s prolonged political deadlock. Massad Boulos, who advises U.S. President Donald Trump on Middle Eastern and African affairs, visited… Continue reading Is the United States Set to Re-Engage in Libya?