With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025
Afkar Country: Yemen
With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?
Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?
Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office reshaped U.S.-Gulf relations. His approach focused on cultivating personal bonds with leaders of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), signing massive arms deals, and for the most part not touching human rights issues. Gulf statesmen mostly welcomed this approach, which provided immediate defense assurances without challenging their sovereignty. However, with… Continue reading Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East
On November 6, within hours of closing the polls, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin. Trump’s remarkable triumph, which will return him to the White House after his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020, comes at a… Continue reading Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East
Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World
When United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) was adopted on October 31, 2000, it marked an unprecedented commitment by the international community to regard women as integral partners in peace processes. The WPS “agenda,” as it came to be known, encompasses ten UNSC resolutions that recognize the devastating… Continue reading Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World
A Region Under Fire
Editor’s Note: There Are No Winners Here Omar H. Rahman, Fellow and Editor of Afkār, Middle East Council on Global Affairs The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023. Decades of military occupation, colonial land theft and systemic deprivation had already pushed Palestinians into a state of constant struggle, laying the groundwork… Continue reading A Region Under Fire
Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views
On January 1, the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland and landlocked Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting the latter port access to the Red Sea. In exchange for a 50-year lease of coastline near the strategic port of Berbera for commercial and naval uses, Addis Ababa agreed to consider recognizing Somaliland as a… Continue reading Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views
Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?
Cooperation between China and the United States in the Middle East has become a common topic of discussion between academics and experts these days. The two great powers have vested interests in the region that are jeopardized by its chronic instability and the growing threat of regional war. Cooperation between the two should be a… Continue reading Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?
How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War
For weeks, the Middle East has been on edge as Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah prepare to retaliate against Israel for assassinating two high-level figures in their respective capitals, Tehran and Beirut. Frantic diplomacy and renewed momentum around Gaza ceasefire negotiations initially delayed the response, which has the potential to push the region over the brink… Continue reading How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War
Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation
Despite renewed international mediation efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah insists that it will respond forcefully to Israel’s assassination of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in the movement’s stronghold in southern Beirut. Since Shukr’s killing, and that of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, outside actors have stepped up efforts to… Continue reading Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation
Unification of Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector in Yemen
Amid the ongoing state of “no-war, no-peace” that has persisted for the past two years, Yemen faces a new challenge that threatens to further unsettle its fragile stability. The country’s banking sector is experiencing turmoil following a series of controversial decisions made by the breakaway Central Bank in Aden, signaling potentially catastrophic consequences for an… Continue reading Unification of Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector in Yemen
The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
We at Afkār are delighted to announce that we have reached a new milestone, our 100th post! To mark the occasion, we have recorded and transcribed a special interview with the Director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Tarik M. Yousef. The in-depth interview was conducted by our editor, Omar H. Rahman, and… Continue reading The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views
On April 13, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time in its history, retaliating for Israel’s killing of three top Iranian commanders in Damascus on April 1. Israel has since responded with a limited strike, and the United States and its allies imposed expanded sanctions on Iran. Middle East Council scholars examine the implications… Continue reading Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views
Winning the Peace in the Middle East’s Fragile State
The military escalation since the start of the war in Gaza on October 7 highlights the vulnerability of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to a relapse of conflict, potentially in a conflagration that could engulf the region at large. Over years of devastating intra-state conflicts and proxy wars in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and… Continue reading Winning the Peace in the Middle East’s Fragile State
Conflict in the Red Sea Makes Economic Waves
When the Yemen-based Houthi movement began attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea in response to Israel’s war in Gaza, the impact on global trade was almost immediate. The international counter-response led by the United States, however, has only increased the likelihood of intensifying conflict and economic damage. As tensions build, the confrontation in the… Continue reading Conflict in the Red Sea Makes Economic Waves
Is a Regional War Inescapable?
Since October, the Middle East has edged ever closer to a regional war unlike any it has experienced before. While there has been plenty of armed hostility over the past 75 years, including between multiple state and non-state actors, the ambit of conflict this time around is so sweeping that it risks engulfing the entire… Continue reading Is a Regional War Inescapable?
Iran’s Strategy in the War on Gaza
The recent drone strike on American soldiers stationed near the Jordan-Syria border, and Washington’s retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria, underscore the dangerous potential for a major escalation between the United States and Iran that could engulf the wider region. Washington and Tehran have engaged in a tit-for-tat conflict for several months now, which has… Continue reading Iran’s Strategy in the War on Gaza
US in the Red Sea: Security Concerns or Power Play?
The waters of the Red Sea are heating up. In recent weeks, the United States has intensified efforts to clamp down on actions taken by the Houthis, a Yemen-based movement otherwise known as Ansar Allah, to disrupt maritime shipping believed to be connected to Israel as a retaliation for its near-total destruction of the Gaza… Continue reading US in the Red Sea: Security Concerns or Power Play?
Houthis Involvement in Gaza War: A Tactical Move?
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have emerged as an unlikely player in the unfolding war in the Gaza Strip. On November 19, Houthi fighters hijacked a cargo ship in the Red Sea and took its crew hostage, citing the vessel’s association with Israeli business interests. On December 3rd, they attacked two Israeli commercial ships. The group, officially… Continue reading Houthis Involvement in Gaza War: A Tactical Move?
“Global Boiling” is a Grim Reality: MENA Governments Must do More to Prepare
For residents of sweltering parts of the Middle East and North Africa, it will come as little surprise that 2023 could be the hottest year on Earth since records began. July has already set a grim landmark as the hottest month on record, prompting United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres to remark that “the era of… Continue reading “Global Boiling” is a Grim Reality: MENA Governments Must do More to Prepare
Will Yemen’s New Hadramout Council Lead to Federalism or More Fragmentation?
The creation of a new governing council for Yemen’s largest province could mark a key moment in the country’s nine-year civil war. The Hadhramout National Council (HNC) was unveiled in late June after meetings between influential actors from across the vast eastern province, as well as Western ambassadors, under Saudi auspices. The council, set to… Continue reading Will Yemen’s New Hadramout Council Lead to Federalism or More Fragmentation?
Can Iran-Saudi Rapprochement overcome Tehran’s anti-Western worldview?
When Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Iran in June, many viewed the event as further evidence of rapidly warming relations between the two regional rivals, who resumed diplomatic ties in March after years of open hostility. The image of the Saudi prince alongside Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, conveyed the message that the… Continue reading Can Iran-Saudi Rapprochement overcome Tehran’s anti-Western worldview?
Sudan Conflict: Regional Implications – Council Views
The eruption of violent conflict in Sudan on April 15 has cast the country into, perhaps, the darkest period yet in its five-year transition toward civilian rule, which began with nationwide protests in 2018 and the toppling of Omar al-Bashir a year later, after three decades in power. The recent outbreak of fighting between the… Continue reading Sudan Conflict: Regional Implications – Council Views
Time to Tackle the Transparency Deficit in the MENA Region
It is widely known that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region suffers from a “democratic deficit.” What is less well-appreciated is that the region also suffers from a chronic deficit in transparency. The World Bank’s Vice President for MENA, Ferid Belhaj, recently called attention to this problem, stating that Egypt needs to get… Continue reading Time to Tackle the Transparency Deficit in the MENA Region
Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen
A diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has raised hopes that it could lead to a peace agreement in Yemen, where war has raged with the help of both parties for over eight years. Over the past week, Houthi officials have been holding peace talks in Sanaa with a delegation led by Saudi Ambassador… Continue reading Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen
The Saudi-Iranian Deal Is Important, but Don’t Expect a Wider Peace
The March 6 announcement that Saudi Arabia and Iran were re-establishing diplomatic ties was an important moment for the Middle East. The Chinese-brokered deal has the potential to end the devastating eight-year conflict in Yemen and address geopolitical tensions elsewhere. From the Saudi perspective, it may end Iranian proxy attacks on Saudi oil facilities, including… Continue reading The Saudi-Iranian Deal Is Important, but Don’t Expect a Wider Peace
Yemen Negotiations: Buying Time or Nearing Peace?
Reports of direct talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels have sparked hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough toward ending the country’s devastating eight-year war. Many observers have drawn optimism from renewed peace efforts and months of relative calm on the ground, which has outlasted a formal truce that expired in October. Yet there are… Continue reading Yemen Negotiations: Buying Time or Nearing Peace?
MENA Outlook 2023 – Council Views
In various ways, 2022 was arguably a positive year in much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The COVID-19 pandemic subsided in many states and the intensity of violence ebbed in several conflict zones. Competition between regional powers receded and gave way to an increase in diplomacy and rapprochement. However, with a… Continue reading MENA Outlook 2023 – Council Views
Can Yemen’s New Leadership Council Buck the Trend of History?
Although Yemen has experienced several decades of autocratic rule, the country also has a long history of being governed by councils representing its diverse political landscape. So, when a new leadership council was formed in April to replace President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, it was welcomed by many Yemenis and felt like an appropriate and familiar… Continue reading Can Yemen’s New Leadership Council Buck the Trend of History?
Yemen Truce: a Window for Peace Not to Be Missed
During the past five months, Yemenis have experienced a welcome lull in their country’s devastating seven-year civil war. In April, a United Nations-brokered truce went into effect between Yemen’s transitional government, backed by a Saudi-led military coalition and a tepid partnership with Yemen’s southern separatist movement, and the Houthi-led movement allied with elements of Yemen’s… Continue reading Yemen Truce: a Window for Peace Not to Be Missed