This situation assessment examines how domestic electioneering shapes Israel’s fragmented political landscape, its approach to Gaza, settlement expansion in the West Bank, and military operations and negotiations in Lebanon. It argues that the election outcome may alter the pace and rhetoric of Israeli policy without substantially changing its core objectives.
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This situation assessment examines the strategic connection between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab and its implications for Gulf energy trade and maritime security. It argues that a sustainable response requires re-establishing sovereignty over Yemen’s coast and building a Yemeni state capable of guarding its own shores.
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Linking Iraq’s Grand Faw Port to Türkiye and Europe, the Development Road promises trade, jobs and regional integration. Its success depends on financing, Iraqi governance, relations with Iran and progress on three interconnected Kurdish issues.
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For over a decade, the U.S. Mideast policy has been trapped in a vicious cycle. Every administration that enters the White House declares, in one way or another, that the region is no longer a priority, and that the future lies in Asia and the Indo-Pacific—the arena of great-power competition with China, as well as… Continue reading America’s Dilemma in the Middle East
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With indirect talks between Washington and Tehran stalling and tensions rising around the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states face tough choices with far-reaching implications that go beyond threats to energy supplies or increased transport and insurance costs, extending to cities, critical infrastructure and national economies. As Qatar and Oman intensify their mediation efforts, the Gulf… Continue reading Mediation for Long-Term Stability: A Vision for Gulf Security
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Lebanon’s sectarian political system has survived civil war, economic collapse, and repeated waves of popular protest. Yet its endurance masks a striking contradiction: Most Lebanese appear to reject its organizing principles, but few are willing to take the risks required to challenge it. A nationally representative survey of 3,000 Lebanese citizens conducted by the authors… Continue reading Most Lebanese Reject Sectarian Rule. What’s Preventing Change?
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