It is the height of political and military failure when a state with the world’s biggest arsenal and its most advanced technology concludes that deploying a nuclear weapon—even of limited yield—could resolve a political crisis or war that conventional weaponry could not settle. This is not merely a dangerous idea. It marks a resounding collapse… Continue reading Going Nuclear: A Political Failure and an Irrational Option

The U.S. midterm elections slated for November 3 constitute a critical temporal threshold in the U.S.-Iranian confrontation. Although President Donald Trump has repeatedly invoked the elections as an inflection point in the war’s trajectory, their significance lies less in setting a deadline for settlement than in potentially changing the incentives governing military escalation. The period… Continue reading U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Against the Electoral Clock

The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated the danger of relying heavily on a single maritime corridor. But the problem extends beyond Hormuz. Ongoing insecurity in the Red Sea and Black Sea means that several routes carrying the world’s energy, food, and goods are under pressure at the same time. When… Continue reading Maritime Disruptions Are Creating a New Economics of Connectivity