The Future of the Middle Eastern (dis)Order

Introduction   

This is the second dossier of a multi-year project entitled, “The Future of the Middle Eastern (dis) Order.” The first dossier analyzed the ongoing regional reset and emerging multipolarity, assessing their impact on intra-regional dynamics and the strategic recalibrations of regional actors in relation to external powers, as well as their approaches to conflict and crisis zones within the region. The first dossier was, hence, more thematic in nature.    

This dossier, in contrast, is more geographical in its scope and delves into the question of security and order in the Mediterranean Sea. Indeed, the Mediterranean region—together with the Gulf—has come to represent the center of gravity in regional politics. The dossier examines how the international context of Mediterranean geopolitics and security is changing with a particular focus on the evolving nature of the US, EU, Russia, and China’s policies towards this region.    

The Mediterranean is becoming a fiercely contested and highly congested space. It has a multiple geopolitical identity. There is not one Mediterranean, but a Middle Eastern, European, and African Mediterranean. Its security is thus intimately interlinked with the security of these regions. Such multiple geopolitical identities and interconnection with the security of other regions make it a key strategic space for almost all global powers.   

The importance of the region for Europe, the United States, NATO, Russia, and China is paramount. For instance, before the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Russia’s regional presence in the Middle East was nowhere as pronounced as it was in the Mediterranean. Moscow was a major player in the Mediterranean’s conflict zones such as in Syria and Libya, had a naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, and close ties with Algeria, Egypt, and other actors like Morocco. Yet, Assad’s downfall has significantly transformed the geopolitical landscape. Not only did Moscow overnight lose its closest Arab partner and deepest strategic footprint in the Arab world, its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean has also considerably weakened as a result of this loss and because the new administration in Damascus has revoked the deal that gave the Tartus naval base to Russia for 49 years. The Mediterranean has also become strategically significant for China because it is at the nexus of the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. It occupies an important place in China’s trans-regional connectivity vision, particularly for the Maritime Silk Road and a geopolitical and geoeconomic gate to Europe. The Mediterranean has a similar significance for the US-backed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Likewise, the region is a key arena in the competition between Russia and the West. 

Plus, great power rivalry in the Mediterranean will not only define the international security environment, but it will also boost its strategic importance for all global players.  Parameters of regional security in the Mediterranean are undergoing a dramatic change. The Gaza war and its ramifications are redefining regional geopolitics—both in the Eastern Mediterranean and in the broader region. Likewise, there are multiple conflict and crisis zones in the region with no solution in sight. Libya and the Western Sahara are cases in point. In contrast, despite the lack of a resolution in their bilateral disputes, there is a positive climate in Turkish-Greek relations with its spillover effect on the Eastern Mediterranean dispute. Moreover, the cutting of Iran’s access to the Eastern Mediterranean as a result of the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria and degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon is another major development that will bear implications on the regional security dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

However, a caveat needs to be mentioned. Instead of regional players, this dossier focuses on how Mediterranean geopolitics are evolving and how major international players are repositioning themselves there. Yet, on many levels, regional actors’ share in defining regional security in the Mediterranean is at least on par with that of global actors. We look forward to continuing to explore this in this project’s future workshops and publications. 

Table of Contents

Introduction: Galip Dalay and Yahia Zoubir

Chapter 1: Russia in the Mediterranean: After Assad’s Fall by Andrey Kortunov

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The opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs.