MENA Outlook for 2025

With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025

With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?

Men wave Iranian flags and flags of Lebanon's Hezbollah during a pro-government rally in southern Tehran, Iran, on December 29, 2024. The 9th of Dey Rally commemorates the pro-government rallies held on December 30, 2009, which are a response to the Ashura protests amid Iran's 2009 post-presidential election unrest. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto) (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?

Whither the New Syria?

Stacks of Syrian pound banknotes are piled on top of each other at a currency trader's stall at a market in the city of Manbij, currently controlled by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army faction, in Syria's northern Aleppo province on January 4, 2025. (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)

As history was made in Syria over the past month, seismic shocks have reverberated across the region. To start, the world witnessed the final convulsion of the World War I-era Sykes-Picot Agreement, which one historian called, with due irony, “a peace to end all peace.” Perhaps more ironic still, the signatories of that bygone treaty,… Continue reading Whither the New Syria?

Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

Traders observe the stock market at Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) during the official listing ceremony for Meeza QSTP LLC (Public) at the Qatar Stock Exchange in Doha, Qatar on 23 August 2023 (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil/NurPhoto) (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse

In early December, the Palestinian banking sector narrowly avoided financial freefall, as Israel’s far-right finance minister toyed with removing a crucial safeguard underpinning the correspondent relationship between Palestinian and Israeli banks. These safeguards protect the Israeli side from domestic and international legal risks arising from transactions with their Palestinian counterparts, offering immunity and indemnity if… Continue reading A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse

Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die

A Syrian rebel fighter walks past Muslim worshippers attending the first weekly Friday prayers since the ouster of president Bashar al-Assad at the Umayyad mosque in the old city of Damascus on December 13, 2024. - Islamist-led rebels took Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Aris MESSINIS / AFP)

The lightening quick takeover of Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led-fighters in an offensive that began on November 27 and ousted the 54-year old Assad regime by December 8, has been stunning. Indeed, the speed of developments has left many observers with more questions than answers, including on the character of the rebel forces,… Continue reading Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die

Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Jordanians chant slogans during a demonstration near the Embassy of Israel in Amman on March 28, 2024, in support of Palestinians amid ongoing battles between Israel and the militant Hamas group in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by Khalil MAZRAAWI / AFP)

Editor’s Note  The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins

Syrian rebel fighters celebrate at the Clock Tower in the heart of the central city of Homs early on December 8, 2024, after rebel forces entered Syria's third city overnight. - Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied anti-goovernment factions have pressed a lightning offensive since November 27, sweeping swathes of the country from government control, including major cities Aleppo, Hama and Homs. (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)

On December 8, the world awoke to stunning news. Overnight, rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had taken Damascus, facing little resistance as they entered the Syrian capital. Most of the state’s security agents and armed forces simply abandoned their positions and walked away. In an instant, the Assad regime’s fifty-four-year brutal rule… Continue reading Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins

As Syria Heats Up, Türkiye Finds Itself in the Spotlight

Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces. (Photo by Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto) (Photo by Rami Alsayed / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

The sudden and dramatic developments in northern Syria—beginning in the outskirts of Idlib and surrounding villages near Aleppo and culminating in Syria’s second largest city falling into rebel hands—have thrust Türkiye—widely seen as the closest external power to the rebel factions—into a spotlight it neither sought nor fully avoided. The speed and ease with which… Continue reading As Syria Heats Up, Türkiye Finds Itself in the Spotlight

Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

People drive past buildings, destroyed during the war between Hezbollah and Israel, in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on December 1, 2024. - The Israeli military carried out air strikes in Lebanon on December 1 against Hezbollah activities that it said "posed a threat", days into a fragile ceasefire between it and the Iran-backed group. (Photo by Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)

After more than a year of hostilities that intensified dramatically in recent months, Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, but the fragile agreement has already been tested by reported violations. In this interview with Afkār, Saoud El Mawla, visiting senior fellow at the ME Council, examines the deal’s significance and durability, as well… Continue reading Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis

-- AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2024 -- People rush to landing humanitarian aid packages dropped over the northern Gaza Strip on April 23, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and the militant group Hamas. (Photo by AFP) / NO USE AFTER JANUARY 31, 2025 23:00:00 GMT - AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2024

For more than a year, Palestinians have faced a systematic and relentless assault on their homeland, amounting to the most profound crisis since the Nakba of 1948. Following the events of October 7, 2023, Israel has embarked on a genocidal campaign against the population of the Gaza Strip and stepped up its repression in the… Continue reading Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis

Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War

(221207) -- RIYADH, Dec. 7, 2022 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping is warmly greeted upon his arrival by Governor of Riyadh Province Prince Faisal bin Bandar Al Saud, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Minister Yasir Al-Rumayyan who works on China affairs and other key members of the royal family and senior officials of the government at the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dec. 7, 2022. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived here Wednesday afternoon to attend the first China-Arab States Summit and the China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit, and pay a state visit to Saudi Arabia at the invitation of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia. (Xinhua/Huang Jingwen) (Photo by Huang Jingwen / XINHUA / Xinhua via AFP)

For many years, China has been expanding its influence to every corner of the globe. And while its strategic priorities remain anchored in the Western Pacific—where it faces great-power rivalry with the United States, myriad territorial disputes, tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the potential for military conflict over the Taiwan Strait—its steadily growing presence… Continue reading Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War

Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East

On November 6, within hours of closing the polls, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin. Trump’s remarkable triumph, which will return him to the White House after his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020, comes at a… Continue reading Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East

Ethiopia and Somalia on the Edge of War

MOGADISHU, SOMALIA - JANUARY 11: Hundreds protest against Ethiopia signing a memorandum of understanding for maritime access with Somaliland, which declared its unilateral independence from the country, in Mogadishu, Somalia on January 11, 2023. Abuukar Mohamed Muhidin / Anadolu (Photo by Abuukar Mohamed Muhidin / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

For months, momentum had been building toward war between Ethiopia and Somalia. After the breakaway region of Somaliland signed an agreement with Addis Ababa in January to exchange littoral rights for potential diplomatic recognition, tensions soared across the Horn of Africa. While recent weeks have seen the regional boil reduce to a simmer, other hot-button… Continue reading Ethiopia and Somalia on the Edge of War

Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum

On October 21, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Manama and met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, marking a significant turning point in Iran-Bahrain relations that have been severed since 2016. This visit—the first by an Iranian foreign minister to Bahrain since 2010—took place amid an escalating military confrontation between Iran and Israel. While Bahrain… Continue reading Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum

Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World

When United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) was adopted on October 31, 2000, it marked an unprecedented commitment by the international community to regard women as integral partners in peace processes. The WPS “agenda,” as it came to be known, encompasses ten UNSC resolutions that recognize the devastating… Continue reading Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World

How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?

On October 26, Israel carried out a long-anticipated strike against Iran, which came in retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage on Israel earlier this month—itself a response to a series of Israeli assassinations of Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas leaders since July. The latest exchange, however, marks a significant escalation in the confrontation between the two… Continue reading How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?

The BRICS+ Summit and the Shifting Global Order

On October 22nd, Russia will host the BRICS+ annual summit—its ranks swelled by new members and ambitions. As this year’s chair, Russia presides over a bloc that now represents 45.5% of the world’s population—more than four times that of the G7—with a combined GDP of $28.5tn, and 25% of global exports. BRICS+ is poised to… Continue reading The BRICS+ Summit and the Shifting Global Order

Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions

The Saudi-Iranian renormalization agreement of March 2023 was a watershed in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. Yet while China received much of the credit for the reconciliation, which cooled the flames of one of the region’s most tense rivalries, the previous two years of heavy lifting had largely been the work of Iraq and the Sultanate… Continue reading Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions

Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis

A major humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Lebanon. Israel’s attacks have exacted a heavy toll with over 2,000 people killed and 9,000 wounded. The last two weeks have wreaked severe damage on core infrastructure, public utilities, water, sanitation, power and roads. The country’s health system has also been degraded. Much of Beirut’s Dahiyeh and South Lebanon stands… Continue reading Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis

A Region Under Fire

Editor’s Note: There Are No Winners Here  Omar H. Rahman, Fellow and Editor of Afkār, Middle East Council on Global Affairs   The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023. Decades of military occupation, colonial land theft and systemic deprivation had already pushed Palestinians into a state of constant struggle, laying the groundwork… Continue reading A Region Under Fire

Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?

In the aftermath of Israel’s successful assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and as Israel begins its ground incursion in parts of southern Lebanon, two interrelated issues emerge.   First, the status of Hezbollah and its future role in Lebanon and the region come into question. While Nasrallah’s assassination dealt a significant blow to the… Continue reading Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?

Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views

ANKARA, TURKIYE - AUGUST 13: Turkish Minister Hakan Fidan (C), Minister of Foreign Affairs of Somalia, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi (R) and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, Taye Atske Selassie Amde (L) hold a joint press conference after their meeting in Ankara, Turkiye on August 13, 2024. Arda Kucukkaya / Anadolu (Photo by Arda Kucukkaya / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

On January 1, the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland and landlocked Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting the latter port access to the Red Sea. In exchange for a 50-year lease of coastline near the strategic port of Berbera for commercial and naval uses, Addis Ababa agreed to consider recognizing Somaliland as a… Continue reading Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views

Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah

BEIRUT, LEBANON - (ARCHIVE): A file photo dated July 23, 2006 shows a Lebanese man showing a poster of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that he found among the rubble of his house as he came to Haret Hreik area to find his belongings in the rubble in Dahiyeh neighborhood which has been bombed by Israeli warplanes for days, in Beirut, Lebanon. Riza Ozel / Anadolu (Photo by RIZA OZEL / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

On September 28, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah following a massive Israeli airstrike in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. The assassination of Nasrallah follows a series of escalatory measures that includes the disruption of Hezbollah’s communication network through an explosive pager operation, the assassinations of other senior leaders in the… Continue reading Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah

Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”

TEHRAN, IRAN - SEPTEMBER 29: A view of the front pages of the newspapers featured news about the death of Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli strike in the Lebanese capital on Friday, at a store in Tehran, Iran on September 29, 2024. Fatemeh Bahrami / Anadolu (Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its attacks in Lebanon, dealing a critical blow to much of Hezbollah’s top military leadership, including the late Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In this interview with Afkār, Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert and security analyst, offers his insights on Tehran’s strategic calculus at this watershed moment, including on… Continue reading Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”

Interview: Türkiye Engages the Arab League

CAIRO, EGYPT - SEPTEMBER 10: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan makes a speech during the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Arab League, on September 10, 2024 in Cairo, Egypt. Arda Kucukkaya / Anadolu (Photo by Arda Kucukkaya / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

At the most recent meeting of the League of Arab States (LAS) in Cairo, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was in attendance, marking the first time Türkiye has been represented at the summit in 13 years. In his address, Fidan offered pointed remarks on the war on Gaza and the need for unity among Arab… Continue reading Interview: Türkiye Engages the Arab League

Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?

Rescuers sift through the rubble at the scene of an Israeli strike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs a day earlier, as search and rescue operations continue on September 21, 2024. - Lebanon's Hezbollah said on September 21 that a second senior commander was among 16 fighters killed in an Israeli air strike on its Beirut stronghold the previous day, highlighting the scale of the blow to its military leadership. (Photo by AFP)

On September 23, Israel began a major military offensive against Lebanon that left around 500 people dead, mainly civilians, and caused mass panic across the south of the country. This followed days of strikes against Hezbollah commanders and a surprise attack on Hezbollah personnel by triggering the explosion of thousands of low-tech communications devices like… Continue reading Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?

Assessing Qatar’s Deepening Ties to Iraqi Kurdistan

Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq Masrour Barzani at the opening of the Qatar General Consulate in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan on May 26, 2024. (Source: masrourbarzani/X)

Over the past year, Qatar and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq have ramped up their relations. Under Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has prioritized improved diplomatic and economic ties to the Gulf. That has included expanded trade with Doha, particularly in agriculture. Erbil and the Gulf states are also improving their… Continue reading Assessing Qatar’s Deepening Ties to Iraqi Kurdistan

Sudan’s Dam Disaster: Where Climate Change Meets War

People carry a boat in muddy waters after the collapse of the Arbaat Dam, 40km north of Port Sudan following heavy rains and torrential floods on August 25, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

The deadly collapse of a dam in Sudan following torrential rains has highlighted the country’s perilous position at the nexus of a devastating conflict and the climate crisis. The Arbaat Dam burst on August 25, destroying 20 villages and severely damaging dozens more, displacing thousands of people and cutting off critical supply routes. The flooding,… Continue reading Sudan’s Dam Disaster: Where Climate Change Meets War

As Mainstream Media Fails Gaza, Social Media Fights to Tell the Real Story

View of Palestine Solidarity Action mural set up in Amsterdam, Netherlands, on June 28, 2024.

The war on Gaza which erupted in October has captured global attention due to the significant humanitarian cost, extensive infrastructure damage, and high casualty figures. According to UNICEF, tens of thousands of people have been killed in the past 10 months, including more than 14,000 children.  Many more have been seriously injured or remain missing under… Continue reading As Mainstream Media Fails Gaza, Social Media Fights to Tell the Real Story

Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?

US White House senior adviser and climate envoy John Podesta (L) speaks during a bilateral meeting with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on September 6, 2024. (Photo by Andy Wong / POOL / AFP)

Cooperation between China and the United States in the Middle East has become a common topic of discussion between academics and experts these days. The two great powers have vested interests in the region that are jeopardized by its chronic instability and the growing threat of regional war. Cooperation between the two should be a… Continue reading Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?

Middle East NATO Office and Regional Security

A Polish soldier holds a NATO flag as he takes part in a ceremony commemorating the 25th anniversary of Poland joining NATO, on March 12, 2024 in Warsaw. (Photo by Wojtek Radwanski / AFP)

During its seventy-fifth annual summit, in July of this year, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) announced plans to open its first Middle East liaison office in Jordan. Amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, NATO’s decision to open this office cements Western powers’ vested interests in the Middle East… Continue reading Middle East NATO Office and Regional Security

Gaza War Creates Dilemmas for Bahrain’s Leadership

People gather holding signs that read, 'flood Jerusalem' they protest in front of the Palestine Embassy in Manama on October 13, 2023, as thousands of protesters poured onto the streets of several Middle East capitals Friday in support of Palestinians amid Israeli air strikes on Gaza in reprisal for a surprise Hamas attack. Thousands of people, both Israeli and Palestinians have died since October 7, 2023, after Palestinian Hamas militants entered Israel in a surprise attack leading Israel to declare war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip on October 8. (Photo by Mazen Mahdi / AFP)

Four years ago this month, Bahrain joined its ally the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in formalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. After signing the Abraham Accords at the White House on September 15, 2020, Bahrain and Israel opened embassies, signed numerous bilateral agreements, established business contacts and launched direct commercial travel. Yet Bahrain, like other Arab… Continue reading Gaza War Creates Dilemmas for Bahrain’s Leadership

What Algeria’s Upcoming Elections Mean for the Next Five Years

A poster of the 2024 presidential vote is being displayed in Algiers, Algeria, on August 15, 2024. The presidency is announcing in March 2024 that the Algerian presidential election will be held on September 7, 2024. The electoral campaign that is beginning on August 15 is continuing until September 3. (Photo by Billel Bensalem / APP) (Photo by APP/NurPhoto) (Photo by APP / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

On September 7, Algerians will head to the polls to elect their president. The outcome, however, is already a foregone conclusion. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, running for his second term, is certain to win. Tebboune’s continued rule is assured because the military, the true power brokers in Algeria, have deemed him a suitable figurehead. His initial… Continue reading What Algeria’s Upcoming Elections Mean for the Next Five Years

Libya’s Central Bank Crisis Reflects Its Broken System

Libya’s latest political standoff, this time over who should head the country’s central bank, has once again highlighted the chronic dysfunction that has plagued the country since the 2011 overthrow of Moammar Gaddafi. Libya’s political economy, militarized and bedeviled by foreign interference, is broken: unsuitable even for Libya’s rival leaders, incapable of constraining them, and… Continue reading Libya’s Central Bank Crisis Reflects Its Broken System

Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?

Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in south Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 19, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by RABIH DAHER / AFP) / “The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by RABIH DAHER has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [June 19] instead of [June 8]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require.”

In a speech a week after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, the Lebanese movement’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah remarked that “the resistance is not interested in using any victory over Israel for domestic political purposes.”   Ten months into Israel’s war of annihilation against the Gaza Strip and its campaign of killings in the… Continue reading Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?

Border Crossing Struggle Reflects Chronic Instability in Western Libya

Cars drive on a street near the Libya market in Tunisia's southern town of Ben Guerdane, near the Libyan border on June 26, 2024. - Commercial trade between Tunisia and Libya has been declining since the closure of the main border crossing of Ras Jedir between the two countries on March 19 following clashes between armed groups and security forces on the Libyan side, the Libyan interior ministry said. (Photo by FATHI NASRI / AFP)

Nearly four months after it closed due to armed clashes between rival Libyan groups, the Ras Ajdir crossing with Tunisia finally reopened on July 1. Located 170 kilometers (105 miles) west of war-torn Libya’s capital, Tripoli, the main land crossing into its western neighbor is a vital lifeline for trade—both official and illicit.  But it… Continue reading Border Crossing Struggle Reflects Chronic Instability in Western Libya

How Tunisia’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Putting Its Next Election into Question

TUNIS, TUNISIA - FEBRUARY 10: Judges, lawyers and people gather to protest President of Tunisia, Kais Saied's decision to dissolve the Supreme Judicial Council in front of Palais de Justice in Tunis, Tunisia on February 10, 2022. Yassine Gaidi / Anadolu Agency (Photo by Yassine Gaidi / ANADOLU AGENCY / Anadolu via AFP)

On August 5, a Tunisian court sentenced four potential presidential candidates on charges of buying endorsements and banned them from running in the upcoming elections slated for October 6. Among the four were the prominent politician and former Ennahda leader Abdellatif Mekki and the activist and TV host Nizar Chaari. In addition, the key opposition… Continue reading How Tunisia’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Putting Its Next Election into Question

Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation

Hezbollah fighters carry the casket of slain top commander Fuad Shukr, during his funeral procession in Beirut's southern suburbs on August 1, 2024. - Hezbollah on August 1 mourned Shukr, whose body was recovered from the rubble of a July 30 Israeli strike in south Beirut that also killed five civilians, three women and two children, and injured dozens, according to Lebanon's health ministry, as fears mounted of a wider conflict in the region. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)

Despite renewed international mediation efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah insists that it will respond forcefully to Israel’s assassination of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in the movement’s stronghold in southern Beirut. Since Shukr’s killing, and that of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, outside actors have stepped up efforts to… Continue reading Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation

Torture Camp Protests Expose Depth of Palestinian Dehumanization in Israel

A Palestinian prisoner is seen from a window in his jail at the detention center of Zeitoun, a neighborhood of Gaza City, on November 7, 2018. (Photo by Thomas COEX / AFP)

On the morning of Monday, July 29, a contingent of Israel’s military police—the agency responsible for policing the security forces—arrived at Sde Teiman, an Israeli military base in the Negev Desert that now serves as a detention center for Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. The military police had come to arrest nine military reservists who… Continue reading Torture Camp Protests Expose Depth of Palestinian Dehumanization in Israel

Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar

Yahya al-Sinwar (C), Gaza Strip chief of the Palestinian Islamist Hamas movement, waves to supporters during a rally marking the 35th anniversary of the group's foundation, in Gaza City on December 14, 2022. Hamas will end talks on securing a prisoner exchange with Israel unless there is progress soon, the militant group's leader in the Gaza Strip said on December 14. Since Israel's 2014 invasion of the Gaza Strip, the Islamist group has held the bodies of Israeli soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin, although Hamas has never confirmed their deaths. Earlier this year Hamas published a video of an Israeli civilian detained for seven years in the enclave. (Photo by MOHAMMED ABED / AFP)

On August 6, Hamas announced that its Shura Council had appointed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the movement in Gaza, as the new head of the group’s politburo. The decision came a week after Israel assassinated Hamas’ previous political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. In this interview,  Beverley Milton-Edwards, co-author of Hamas: The Quest for… Continue reading Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar

Biden vs Harris on the Middle East: Same dance, different steps

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - AUGUST 10: Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz hold signs during a campaign rally at the University of Las Vegas Thomas & Mack Center on August 10, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Kamala Harris and her newly selected running mate Tim Walz are campaigning across the country this week. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by JUSTIN SULLIVAN / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The 2024 US election year has been one of the most tumultuous on record. The past two months have seen a shockingly lacklustre performance from President Joe Biden on the debate stage and his subsequent withdrawal from the ticket, an assassination attempt on former President and current Republican nominee Donald Trump, and the elevation of Vice President… Continue reading Biden vs Harris on the Middle East: Same dance, different steps

Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance

A handout picture released by the Jordanian Royal Palace shows Jordan's King Abdullah (C) attending a plenary session during the emergency aid summit entitled "Call for Action: Urgent Humanitarian Response for Gaza", in Sweimeh on the shores of the Dead Sea in Jordan on June 11, 2024. - Jordan hosted a summit on June 11 bringing together leaders and aid officials to discuss urgent humanitarian response for Palestinians enduring more than eight months of devastating war in the Gaza Strip, where the United Nations has warned of looming famine. (Photo by Chris Setian / Jordanian Royal Palace / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / JORDANIAN ROYAL HASHEMITE COURT (RHC)" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS

The ongoing Israeli war on Gaza is seen by the Jordanian government and public as an existential threat. Despite credible accusations of genocide, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prolonging, expanding, and escalating the offensive, which has led to mounting pressure on neighboring Jordan. From the potential forced displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank… Continue reading Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance

How Big a Role Will Gaza Play in the U.S. Election?

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - AUGUST 6: Democratic presidential nominee Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris (R) and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (L) on stage at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States on August 6, 2024. US Vice President Kamala Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate in the 2024 presidential race. Kyle Mazza / Anadolu (Photo by Kyle Mazza / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

One of the great ironies of American politics is that despite the country’s immense power and influence in the world, U.S. foreign policy and international affairs hardly factor into the calculus of most American voters. The 2024 presidential race may be different, however.   Since October 7, 2023, the Hamas-led attack on Israel, and Israel’s catastrophic… Continue reading How Big a Role Will Gaza Play in the U.S. Election?

Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views

People hold up the Palestinian flag and a portrait of assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh Hamas chief during a rally at Tehran University, in the Iranian capital Tehran on July 31, 2024, as Iran declares three days of mourning. (Photo by AFP)

On July 31, Hamas’ politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran shortly after attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. Just hours before, an Israeli drone strike killed one of the founders of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a southern suburb of Beirut. The dual assassinations occurred during an escalation in the fighting between… Continue reading Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views

Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region? 

(FILES) This handout picture provided by the Iranian foreign ministry on February 13, 2024, shows Hamas' political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh preparing to welcome the Iranian Foreign Minister in Doha. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said July 31, 2024 that the chief of the Palestinian Hamas militant group, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran along with one of his bodyguards. (Photo by Iranian Foreign Ministry / AFP) / === RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / HO / IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS ===

On July 31, Hamas’ top political leader, Ismael Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran while attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. The assassination came hours after Israel launched a drone strike in Beirut, killing the high-ranking Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr and others. The pair of assassinations come amid mounting regional tensions as Israel’s… Continue reading Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region? 

Interview: The View from MENA on France’s Elections Results

PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 08: A man reads 'Le Parisien' newspaper, seen the day after the second round of the French legislative election in the 11th Arrondissement of Paris, on July 5, 2024, in Paris, France. (Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto) (Photo by Artur Widak / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

During recent elections to the European Parliament, France’s far right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party led by Marine Le Pen won a resounding victory. In a surprise response, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved his country’s parliament and called for immediate elections. Yet, despite a strong showing in the first round, the National Rally ultimately came… Continue reading Interview: The View from MENA on France’s Elections Results

ICJ Ruling Gives Palestinians Needed Hope and a Path Forward

Judge and President of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Nawaf Salam (2nd R) delivers a non-binding ruling on the legal consequences of the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague on July 19, 2024. - The UN's top court handed down its view, on July 19, 2024, declaring "illegal" Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories since 1967, amid growing international pressure over the war in Gaza. (Photo by Nick Gammon / AFP)

In an historic ruling, the world’s highest court has deemed Israel’s 57-year-old military occupation of Palestinian territory unlawful and ordered it to end its presence there, including all its settlements and settlers, “as rapidly as possible.” The nine-point decision from the International Court of Justice at The Hague also obliged Israel to pay reparations to… Continue reading ICJ Ruling Gives Palestinians Needed Hope and a Path Forward

Unification of Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector in Yemen

A seller holds money at a market area in Taiz, Yemen on March 10, 2022. Abdulnasser Alseddik / Anadolu Agency (Photo by Abdulnasser Alseddik / ANADOLU AGENCY / Anadolu Agency via AFP)

Amid the ongoing state of “no-war, no-peace” that has persisted for the past two years, Yemen faces a new challenge that threatens to further unsettle its fragile stability. The country’s banking sector is experiencing turmoil following a series of controversial decisions made by the breakaway Central Bank in Aden, signaling potentially catastrophic consequences for an… Continue reading Unification of Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector in Yemen

India’s Mideast Relations Should Continue Apace in Third Modi Term

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi flashes victory sign as he arrives at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters to celebrate the party’s win in country's general election, in New Delhi on June 4, 2024. - Modi claimed election victory for his party and its allies on June 4, but the opposition said they had "punished" the ruling party to confound predictions and reduce their parliamentary majority. (Photo by Arun SANKAR / AFP)

India’s recent election was a 44-day “festival of democracy” that targeted 900 million eligible voters in the world’s largest democratic exercise to date. Over 640 million ballots were submitted, including nearly half by women, recording a 66% turnout through 1.1 million polling booths and 5.5 million electronic voting machines. For comparison, this is more than… Continue reading India’s Mideast Relations Should Continue Apace in Third Modi Term