Syria’s Opening with the West Poses Russia Dilemma for Damascus 

A handout picture provided by the Saudi Royal Palace shows Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) watching as US President Donald Trump (C) shakes hands with Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh on May 14, 2025. Trump became the first US president in 25 years to meet a Syrian leader on May 14, after he offered sanctions relief in hopes of offering a new path to the war-battered country. (Photo by Bandar AL-JALOUD / Saudi Royal Palace / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SAUDI ROYAL PALACE / BANDAR AL-JALOUD" - NO MARKETING - NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS

Since President Donald Trump’s Gulf tour in mid-May, U.S.-Syria relations have evolved significantly. Washington’s lifting of its most crippling sanctions on Syria, the appointment of an American envoy to the country, Trump’s meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh and the reopening of the U.S. ambassador’s residence in Damascus all illustrate a new reality… Continue reading Syria’s Opening with the West Poses Russia Dilemma for Damascus 

As Israel Imposes Starvation and Displacement on Palestinians, U.S. Action is Demanded  

People carrying sacks of flour walk along al-Rashid street in western Jabalia on June 17, 2025, after humanitarian aid trucks reportedly entered the northern Gaza Strip through the Israeli-controlled Zikim border crossing, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. (Photo by BASHAR TALEB / AFP)

The scenes of horror have become a regular occurrence. Tens of thousands of desperately hungry Palestinians packed into endless metal queues under a blistering sun, subjected to biometric scanning as they flood a dystopian aid complex, hoping for a box of food. Each day, hundreds are killed or wounded while making the harrowing choice between… Continue reading As Israel Imposes Starvation and Displacement on Palestinians, U.S. Action is Demanded  

How Israel’s Dangerous New Grand Strategy Has Set Mideast on Fire 

HEBRON, WEST BANK - JUNE 18: Missiles fired from Iran are seen streaking across the skies over the city of Hebron in the West Bank on June 18, 2025. Iran, which Israel continued to attack, launched a new retaliatory attack with around 25 missiles in two successive attacks. Wisam Hashlamoun / Anadolu (Photo by Wisam Hashlamoun / Anadolu via AFP)

For more than a decade, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the world of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He repeatedly accused Tehran of being on the cusp of acquiring a bomb, condemned diplomatic overtures as capitulation, and vowed Israel would never allow Iran to become a nuclear power. Yet despite the endless threats, leaked war plans,… Continue reading How Israel’s Dangerous New Grand Strategy Has Set Mideast on Fire 

How Iran Is Calculating Its War With Israel

TEHRAN, IRAN - JUNE 15: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY – MANDATORY CREDIT - 'IRANIAN PRESIDENCY / HANDOUT' - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meets cabinet members at the Presidential Palace in Tehran, Iran on June 15, 2025. Iranian Presidency / Anadolu (Photo by IRANIAN PRESIDENCY / Anadolu via AFP)

Iran’s response to Israel’s unprecedented military offensive has been constrained, reactive and shaped by a growing sense of vulnerability. While it has launched retaliatory strikes, these have been more limited in intensity and scope than many would have anticipated, given Tehran’s massive stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones. This restraint is believed to stem from… Continue reading How Iran Is Calculating Its War With Israel

The Islamic Republic’s Existential Crisis

A man looks at a billboard featuring the portraits of (Left to Right) Hassan Nasrallah, the slain former leader of Hezbollah, Iran's late president Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iran's slain commander Qasem Soleimani, in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on June 17, 2025. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an interview with ABC News, states that killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would end the conflict between the two countries. He also defends Israel's ongoing military actions against Iran, adding they aim to end the conflict rather than escalate it. His remarks come after reports that US President Donald Trump previously vetoed an Israeli plan to target Iran's Supreme Leader, fearing it could worsen the conflict. Israel continues its strikes across Iran since June 13, targeting nuclear and energy facilities, and a state television building in Tehran. In response, Iran launches waves of retaliatory missiles and drones toward Israel. (Photo by Firdous Nazir/NurPhoto) (Photo by Firdous Nazir / NurPhoto via AFP)

Israel’s decision to launch airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military should have come as no surprise following a year of devastating setbacks for the Iranian regime and its proxy network in the region. For almost a decade, the two sides have engaged in a shadow war and tit-for-tat military exchanges across several conflict theaters.… Continue reading The Islamic Republic’s Existential Crisis

Civilians in the Crosshairs as RSF Escalates Sudan War with Drone Barrage

PORT SUDAN, SUDAN - MAY 06: Smoke rises after explosions at South Port of the city of Port Sudan, Sudan on May 06, 2025. According to local sources, a series of loud explosions were heard in the area, followed by fires breaking out at the port. Stringer / Anadolu (Photo by STRINGER / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

Port Sudan was never meant to be a frontline. For two years, the coastal city had stood apart from Sudan’s raging civil war—a rare refuge, an administrative hub and the last functioning gateway to the outside world. That illusion shattered in May. In a stunning escalation, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a wave of drone strikes on… Continue reading Civilians in the Crosshairs as RSF Escalates Sudan War with Drone Barrage

Israel Applies Its Lebanon Playbook to Iran in Opening Salvo 

People and first-responders gather outside a building that was hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran on June 13, 2025. Israel hit about 100 targets in Iran on June 13, including nuclear facilities and military command centres and killing senior figures including the armed forces chief and top nuclear scientists. (Photo by MEGHDAD MADADI / TASNIM NEWS / AFP)

In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched a large-scale aerial offensive against multiple military and nuclear-related targets inside Iran. Dubbed “Operation Rising Lion”, the strikes targeted senior military commanders, nuclear scientists, air defense infrastructure and suspected ballistic missile facilities. Israel has framed the campaign as a necessary measure to halt Iran’s advancing nuclear… Continue reading Israel Applies Its Lebanon Playbook to Iran in Opening Salvo 

Israel’s Admission of Genocide

GAZA CITY, GAZA - MAY 31: Ahmad Falih Versh Agha, a 14-year-old boy living in a shelter on Rashid Street, west of Gaza City, who was seriously wounded in the attack on his school, is viewed on May 31, 2025 in Gaza City, Gaza. Ahmad, who lost his right arm in the attack, suffered shrapnel damage to his intestines and a broken pelvis. Ahmad, who lost his father in a previous attack, struggles with health problems due to malnutrition. Ahmad, who needs a prosthetic arm, hopes to be treated abroad. Ahmed Jihad Ibrahim Al-arini / Anadolu (Photo by Ahmed Jihad Ibrahim Al-arini / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

Since October 7, 2023, Israeli cabinet ministers, political figures, military officers and media pundits have openly and endlessly incited for the destruction of Gaza and its Palestinian inhabitants. Already by December 2023, South Africa had compiled an extensive record of these statements for its submission to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) alleging that Israel… Continue reading Israel’s Admission of Genocide

Syria Needs Full Sanctions Relief to Truly Rebuild 

TARTUS, SYRIA - MAY 14: Syrians celebrate as the United States announces it will lift sanctions on the country in Tartus, Syria on May 14, 2025. In the western city of Tartus, crowds gathered to welcome the decision. U.S. President Donald Trump said he made the decision after consultations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Tamam Jerbi / Anadolu (Photo by Tamam Jerbi / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

On May 13, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would lift all U.S. sanctions on Syria. The announcement, made during his historic visit to Saudi Arabia, was a miraculous reprieve for the people of Syria, who had been struggling to rebuild their country after a devastating 14-year civil war. On May 20, European Union… Continue reading Syria Needs Full Sanctions Relief to Truly Rebuild 

In Tripoli, A War on Militias Quickly Becomes a War of Militias

Protesters wave Libyan flags and placards during a rally calling for the resignation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli's Martyrs square late on May 17, 2025. Libya's UN-backed GNU premier Abdulhamid Dbeibah on May 17 called on armed groups to align themselves with "state institutions" after days of deadly clashes in Tripoli and protests demanding his resignation, in a country that remains deeply divided since the 2011 NATO-backed revolt that toppled and killed longtime leader Moamer Kadhafi. (Photo by AFP)

In the Libyan capital Tripoli, change is rarely peaceful or linear. This was starkly demonstrated once again in mid-May, when what like seemed a strategic victory for Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah quickly spiraled into the latest in the country’s long string of political and military crises.   The episode began when Abdelghani al-Kikli, the head… Continue reading In Tripoli, A War on Militias Quickly Becomes a War of Militias

Will the PKK’s Historic Disbandment Transform the Turkish Republic? 

Protesters hold up flags bearing a portrait of Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) jailed in Turkey since 1999, during a demonstration calling for his release in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria on February 15, 2025. (Photo by Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP)

On May 12, 2025, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, officially declared its dissolution after nearly five decades of armed insurgency against the Turkish state. The announcement was made in parallel congresses held in the Kandil Mountains and the Zap Valley, the two iconic strongholds of the movement in northern Iraq. Two hundred and thirty-two… Continue reading Will the PKK’s Historic Disbandment Transform the Turkish Republic? 

Tensions Mount in the Sahel as Algeria and Mali Face Off 

Malian anti rior police officers line up in front of the Algerian Embassy in Bamako on April 8, 2025 during a demonstration. Several dozen young people demonstrated in Bamako on Tuesday to protest "Algeria's actions" against Bamako, which accuses its northern neighbor of destroying a military drone on Malian territory in late March, an AFP journalist noted. Tensions between Bamako and Algiers prompted the recall of their respective ambassadors on Sunday. Meanwhile, each country closed its airspace to the other on Monday. (Photo by AFP)

Long-simmering tensions between Algeria and Mali have threatened to boil over in recent weeks after a series of explosive incidents took place along their border. On April 1, Algeria shot down a Malian armed drone over Tin Zaoutine, a sensitive frontier zone. The two sides both claimed it occurred in their own airspace. In response,… Continue reading Tensions Mount in the Sahel as Algeria and Mali Face Off 

Jordan Seeks to Balance Between Dissent and Stability 

Jordanian supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood gather during a protest to celebrate the "Gaza victory" in the war against Israel, in the capital Amman on August 8, 2014. Muslim Brotherhood chief Hammam Said said that around half a million people attended the rally, while a security official put the number at more than 100,000. AFP PHOTO/KHALIL MAZRAAWI (Photo by KHALIL MAZRAAWI / AFP)

At the end of April, on the heels of allegations that 16 members of the Muslim Brotherhood had taken part in a foiled domestic terror plot, the Jordanian government moved to officially outlaw the organization. The Hashemite monarchy and the Islamist opposition group have had a tempestuous relationship for decades, but this decision appears to… Continue reading Jordan Seeks to Balance Between Dissent and Stability 

How Trump’s Government Cuts Will Affect U.S. Foreign Policy

(L-R) US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US President Donald Trump, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick listen, during a cabinet meeting, in the Cabinet Room of the White House in Washington, DC, of April 30, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP)

Spurred on by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, the second Trump administration has embarked upon a campaign of massive disruption within the federal government that will have serious implications for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). One of the primary targets is the State Department.… Continue reading How Trump’s Government Cuts Will Affect U.S. Foreign Policy

In Engaging the Haftars, Türkiye Makes Pragmatic Shift in Libya 

Türkiye’s welcome of Saddam Haftar, son of eastern Libya’s de facto ruler Khalifa Haftar, was laden not only with ceremony but with implications for the North African country’s delicate balance of power. Walking down the red carpet in Ankara on April 4, the commander of land forces in his father’s self-styled Libyan Arab Armed Forces… Continue reading In Engaging the Haftars, Türkiye Makes Pragmatic Shift in Libya 

The First 100 Days: Trump’s Middle East Policy Revisited

By any standard of the American presidency, the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term have been eventful, to say the least. From the dismantling of government institutions to the imposition of protectionist trade policies to the launching of negotiations with Iran and Russia, the implications of Trump’s early agenda have been far reaching… Continue reading The First 100 Days: Trump’s Middle East Policy Revisited

Seizing the Moment for Peace in Syria

Fighters wave flags and flash victory signs from a vehicle during a convoy procession in Aleppo, Syria on April 9, 2025. The SDF withdrawal continues as part of the agreement between them and Syria’s central government and is proceeding in planned phases. (Photo by Mohamad Daboul / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)

As the Trump administration begins pulling U.S. troops out of Syria and openly mulling its long-term future there, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—a Kurdish-led coalition force—may soon lose its most important military and political backer. This possibility, and the wider geopolitical shifts it could bring, was likely a major factor in SDF General Commander Mazloum… Continue reading Seizing the Moment for Peace in Syria

Two Years In, Sudan War Shows Little Sign of Ending  

A fighter loyal to the army patrols a market area in Khartoum on March 24, 2025. For nearly two years, Sudan has been ravaged by a war between the regular army and the RSF, a conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people, uprooted over 12 million more and created the world's largest hunger and displacement crises. (Photo by AFP)

As Sudan’s brutal civil war enters its third year, political and military developments on the ground have sparked speculation that a turning point may be near. But a closer look reveals a bleaker reality: an end to the conflict, whether through a political settlement or military victory, remains distant. More worrying, the recent shifts have… Continue reading Two Years In, Sudan War Shows Little Sign of Ending  

U.S. Disengagement Spurs Turkish-European Defense Cooperation

ANKARA, TURKIYE - DECEMBER 18: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY - MANDATORY CREDIT - DEFENSE MINISTRY OF TURKIYE / HANDOUT' - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) Eurofighter Typhoon jet from the UK's Royal Air Force lands at Murted Air Base in Ankara for inspection by Turkish officials on December 18, 2024. Two Eurofighter jets, which recently participated in a drill in Qatar, arrived in Ankara for inspection by Turkish officials due to potential purchase. Turkish Defense Ministry / Handout / Anadolu (Photo by Turkish Defense Ministry / Hando / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

As the United States’ long-standing commitment to European security erodes under the Trump administration, the bloc’s defense partnership with Türkiye hit a new milestone in March, when a consortium of Europe’s leading arms companies submitted a formal bid to sell Ankara 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets.   The fighters have seen active service in the air forces… Continue reading U.S. Disengagement Spurs Turkish-European Defense Cooperation

Abu Dhabi’s Quiet Engagement in Afghanistan May Ease Taliban Isolation

This handout picture provided by the UAE Presidential Court shows UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (R) meeting with Sirajuddin Haqqani (2nd-L), interior minister in Afghanistan's Taliban administration, at al-Shati Palace in Abu Dhabi on January 20, 2025. (Photo by Abdulla AL-BEDWAWI / UAE PRESIDENTIAL COURT / AFP) / === RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / UAE PRESIDENTIAL COURT- NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS ===

For nearly a decade, international diplomacy concerning Afghanistan was mainly mediated by Qatar. Yet since the Taliban rolled into Kabul in August 2021, leading figures from the movement have made a string of high-profile visits to another key Gulf powerbroker, the United Arab Emirates. Their warm reception by the Emirati authorities suggests that Abu Dhabi… Continue reading Abu Dhabi’s Quiet Engagement in Afghanistan May Ease Taliban Isolation

Trump’s Aid Cuts Sever Stalwart of U.S. Soft Power in the Middle East 

A protestor holds a sign as people gather outside the Ronald Reagan Building during a "clap out" in support of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) fired staff who received word to retrieve their personal belongings from USAID headquarters in Washington, DC, on February 27, 2025. Most employees at USAID have been placed on leave or fired by midnight on February 23, the aid agency said, as President Donald Trump's administration plows ahead in slashing government spending. (Photo by Ting Shen / AFP)

Amid the whirlwind of executive orders and major policy shifts coming out of the White House, President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze the operations of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which administers most U.S. foreign assistance, threatens to have a wide impact around the world. If prolonged, many programs in countries across the… Continue reading Trump’s Aid Cuts Sever Stalwart of U.S. Soft Power in the Middle East 

Rebuilding Forever: Lessons of our failures

DAMASCUS, SYRIA - MARCH 13: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa signs a declaration outlining the main provisions of the interim constitution in a ceremony held at the People's Palace in the capital Damascus, Syria on March 13, 2025. Izettin Kasim / Anadolu (Photo by Izettin Kasim / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

*This article is the second part in a two-part series. Read Part 1 here.  If Syria’s Arab Spring forerunners have a fundamental lesson to impart, it is that achieving a symbiosis between a revolution’s leadership and its public is required to successfully transmute a deposed tyranny into a nation of self-determination and the representative state… Continue reading Rebuilding Forever: Lessons of our failures

The Arab Plan for Gaza Has Two Problems: Israel and the PA

A handout picture provided by the Egyptian Presidency shows a group picture during the Arab League summit on Gaza, in Cairo, on March 4, 2025. (Photo by Egyptian Presidency / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / HO /EGYPTIAN PRESIDENCY " - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS

Egypt’s proposal for the reconstruction and administration of Gaza has emerged as an urgent intervention in the crisis that has unfolded since October 7, 2023. Backed by the Arab states, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and several European nations, the plan is not merely a humanitarian initiative—it is a geopolitical maneuver meant to counter the… Continue reading The Arab Plan for Gaza Has Two Problems: Israel and the PA

Is Russia Entering U.S.-Iranian Nuclear Negotiations?  

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian shake hands during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on January 17, 2025. (Photo by Evgenia Novozhenina / POOL / AFP)

A three-way dance is developing between Washington, Moscow and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter directly to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, asking to enter negotiations, while indicating to the media separately that the alternative would be military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Khamenei responded… Continue reading Is Russia Entering U.S.-Iranian Nuclear Negotiations?  

Call to Disband PKK Reshapes Türkiye, Syria Power Dynamics 

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. Ocalan issued a historic call on February 27 for his Kurdish militant force to disband and his fighters to lay down their arms. (Photo by Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP)

The consequences of the call by the founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, for the group to disband are still reverberating—not just in Türkiye but also in the wider region.  Shifting alliances in Syria—exemplified by the recent agreement between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian government—confirm that Ocalan’s message… Continue reading Call to Disband PKK Reshapes Türkiye, Syria Power Dynamics 

As Trump Imposes Tariffs, What Will U.S. Protectionism Mean for MENA and the Global Economy?

Shipping containers are stacked high at the Port of Long Beach on March 4, 2025 in Long Beach, California, as US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect. US President Donald Trump could announce a compromise tariff arrangement with Canada and Mexico on March 5, his commerce secretary said in an interview, shortly after sweeping 25-percent levies went into effect. "I think he's going to work something out with them," Howard Lutnick told Fox Business on Tuesday. "Somewhere in the middle will likely be the outcome, the president moving with the Canadians and Mexicans, but not all the way." (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP)

The United States has long been the world’s leading advocate for free trade, promoting it as a means of expanding global commerce and specialization in production that links economies into diversified supply chains. This has led to an unprecedented period of economic growth and poverty alleviation, a period anchored largely in an international rules-based order… Continue reading As Trump Imposes Tariffs, What Will U.S. Protectionism Mean for MENA and the Global Economy?

In Post-Genocide Gaza, Women Will Rise from the Rubble

Palestinian women walk across building debris following an Israeli airstrike at the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, on Friday, Jan. 3, 2025. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized a delegation to travel to Qatar for discussions on a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. (Photo by Saeed Jaras / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)

On September 19, 2023, weeks before October 7 and the onset of the genocidal war that has consumed Gaza, 80 Palestinian women gathered in the blockaded territory to discuss the future. They were empowered leaders, successful entrepreneurs, professional businesswomen, committed academics and innovative engineers and scientists—all united under the umbrella of the Business and Professional… Continue reading In Post-Genocide Gaza, Women Will Rise from the Rubble

For Syria, Lessons from Our Past Failures

A man and a woman wave the Syrian opposition flag next to a boy selling balloons as crowds gather near the Citadel of Aleppo in Aleppo, Syria, on January 21, 2025. Years of civil war have left large parts of the city in ruins, forcing residents to navigate the destruction in their daily lives. (Photo by Bilal Alhammoud / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)

The Assad family, like so many tyrannies before them, allowed their power, impunity, isolation and the resultant narcissism to foster a belief that their world would never end. Assad’s supporters—both for the father, Hafez, and the son, Bashar—would chant “our leader forever.” Until the day inevitably came when their rule ended and people sang, “forever… Continue reading For Syria, Lessons from Our Past Failures

Fast-Moving Geopolitical Dynamics Challenge Yemen and the Houthis

SANAA, YEMEN - NOVEMBER 15: People take part in a demonstration organized by the Houthis to protest Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon as they gather on Sebin Street in Sanaa, Yemen on November 15, 2024. Mohammed Hamoud / Anadolu (Photo by Mohammed Hamoud / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

The fall of the Assad regime in Damascus represents a critical turning point in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Beforehand, Syria functioned as a strategic link supporting Iranian influence from Tehran to Beirut and onwards to Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, making it a crucial component in the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”   Recent setbacks to… Continue reading Fast-Moving Geopolitical Dynamics Challenge Yemen and the Houthis

The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA

US President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House on February 10, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP)

Since returning to office on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump has issued 67 executive orders, more than double any other president in American history. Given that some of those orders have serious implications for the Middle East and North Africa, Afkār has compiled views from Middle East Council on Global Affairs scholars to analyze some… Continue reading The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA

Will Trump Remove Syria’s New Rulers from America’s Foreign Terrorist List?

DAMASCUS, SYRIA - DECEMBER 26: Roadside vendors in Damascus sell gasoline and diesel to drivers due to fuel production failing to meet demand in Damascus, Syria on December 26, 2024. In the new era, energy emerges as a priority in Syria, with lifting sanctions and utilizing oil resources among key issues. Following the fall of the 61-year-long Baath regime and the 53-year Assad family rule, the interim government continues efforts to improve living conditions for citizens. Hasan Belal / Anadolu (Photo by Hasan Belal / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

Since 1997, the U.S. State Department has compiled a catalog of organizations it considers foreign terrorists. The FTO list, as it is known, has become a powerful tool in Washington’s “war on terror,” by subjecting parties on the list to the weight of American delegitimization and economic sanctions. Moreover, the qualification and threshold for being… Continue reading Will Trump Remove Syria’s New Rulers from America’s Foreign Terrorist List?

Maximum Pressure on Iran, Minimal Results

Among the top foreign policy issues Donald Trump faces in his second term are the perceived challenges and threats posed by Iran. To this end, Trump revived the “maximum pressure” campaign that characterized his approach to Iran in his previous term. At the same time, hawks in Washington are calling on the administration to support… Continue reading Maximum Pressure on Iran, Minimal Results

Assad’s Fall in Syria Poses Serious Questions Inside Iraq

A picture taken during a tour organised by Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation Forces) shows members of a joint Hashed and Iraqi army force standing guard at the Iraqi-Syrian border on December 5, 2024, amid an Islamist-led rebel offensive in Syria. On December 2, Iraq said it had sent armoured vehicles to bolster security along its 600-kilometre (370-mile) border with Syria. (Photo by Zaid AL-OBEIDI / AFP)

Recent developments in Syria, including the fall of the Assad regime, Iran’s failure to quell the rebel advance into Damascus and subsequent withdrawal of its proxies from the country, have generated shockwaves in neighboring Iraq. For the first time in Iraq’s post-2003 political history, the prospect of breaking Iran’s outsized influence over the Iraqi state… Continue reading Assad’s Fall in Syria Poses Serious Questions Inside Iraq

TikTok Is Back, but for Whom?

TikTok video streaming and sharing app is seen in this illustration photo on 20 January, 2025. (Photo by Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto)

U.S. users briefly lost access to popular social media platform TikTok earlier this week, following a legislative push to force the app’s Chinese-owned parent company to divest from its U.S. operations. While Donald Trump had endorsed the effort to ban the app during his first term, he recently reversed his stance, signing an executive order… Continue reading TikTok Is Back, but for Whom?

With a New Government in Charge, a New Era in Lebanon Beckons

Newly elected Lebanese president Joseph Aoun delivers a speech at the parliament building in Beirut on January 9, 2025. Lebanon's lawmakers elected army chief Joseph Aoun as president on January 9, after a two-year vacancy of the position, in a step towards lifting the war-battered country out of financial crisis. (Photo by ANWAR AMRO / AFP)

The nomination of Nawaf Salam as Lebanon’s new prime minister alongside Joseph Aoun as president, after more than two years of political vacuum, is a momentous occasion heralding a new era for Lebanon. It can be an historical opportunity akin to the 1989 Taif Agreement, which formed the basis of ending Lebanon’s 15-year civil war… Continue reading With a New Government in Charge, a New Era in Lebanon Beckons

Will U.S. Sustain Pressure on Israel to Implement the Ceasefire Deal?

Residents of the Bureij camp watch news updates together on January 14, 2025. Displaced residents follow developments as they await signs of peace and a ceasefire. (Photo by Moiz Salhi / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)

President-elect Donald Trump appears to have followed through with his promise to achieve a Gaza ceasefire before his inauguration on January 20. The incoming administration succeeded where the Biden administration failed, showing that U.S. pressure on Israel can lead to results. While many dismissed Trump’s threat that “all hell will break out” if the hostages… Continue reading Will U.S. Sustain Pressure on Israel to Implement the Ceasefire Deal?

MENA Outlook for 2025

With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025

With Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will Iranian People Respond?

Men wave Iranian flags and flags of Lebanon's Hezbollah during a pro-government rally in southern Tehran, Iran, on December 29, 2024. The 9th of Dey Rally commemorates the pro-government rallies held on December 30, 2009, which are a response to the Ashura protests amid Iran's 2009 post-presidential election unrest. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto) (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will Iranian People Respond?

Whither the New Syria?

Stacks of Syrian pound banknotes are piled on top of each other at a currency trader's stall at a market in the city of Manbij, currently controlled by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army faction, in Syria's northern Aleppo province on January 4, 2025. (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)

As history was made in Syria over the past month, seismic shocks have reverberated across the region. To start, the world witnessed the final convulsion of the World War I-era Sykes-Picot Agreement, which one historian called, with due irony, “a peace to end all peace.” Perhaps more ironic still, the signatories of that bygone treaty,… Continue reading Whither the New Syria?

Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

Traders observe the stock market at Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) during the official listing ceremony for Meeza QSTP LLC (Public) at the Qatar Stock Exchange in Doha, Qatar on 23 August 2023 (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil/NurPhoto) (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse

In early December, the Palestinian banking sector narrowly avoided financial freefall, as Israel’s far-right finance minister toyed with removing a crucial safeguard underpinning the correspondent relationship between Palestinian and Israeli banks. These safeguards protect the Israeli side from domestic and international legal risks arising from transactions with their Palestinian counterparts, offering immunity and indemnity if… Continue reading A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse

Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die

A Syrian rebel fighter walks past Muslim worshippers attending the first weekly Friday prayers since the ouster of president Bashar al-Assad at the Umayyad mosque in the old city of Damascus on December 13, 2024. - Islamist-led rebels took Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Aris MESSINIS / AFP)

The lightening quick takeover of Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led-fighters in an offensive that began on November 27 and ousted the 54-year old Assad regime by December 8, has been stunning. Indeed, the speed of developments has left many observers with more questions than answers, including on the character of the rebel forces,… Continue reading Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die

Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Jordanians chant slogans during a demonstration near the Embassy of Israel in Amman on March 28, 2024, in support of Palestinians amid ongoing battles between Israel and the militant Hamas group in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by Khalil MAZRAAWI / AFP)

Editor’s Note  The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins

Syrian rebel fighters celebrate at the Clock Tower in the heart of the central city of Homs early on December 8, 2024, after rebel forces entered Syria's third city overnight. - Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied anti-goovernment factions have pressed a lightning offensive since November 27, sweeping swathes of the country from government control, including major cities Aleppo, Hama and Homs. (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)

On December 8, the world awoke to stunning news. Overnight, rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had taken Damascus, facing little resistance as they entered the Syrian capital. Most of the state’s security agents and armed forces simply abandoned their positions and walked away. In an instant, the Assad regime’s fifty-four-year brutal rule… Continue reading Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins

As Syria Heats Up, Türkiye Finds Itself in the Spotlight

Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces. (Photo by Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto) (Photo by Rami Alsayed / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

The sudden and dramatic developments in northern Syria—beginning in the outskirts of Idlib and surrounding villages near Aleppo and culminating in Syria’s second largest city falling into rebel hands—have thrust Türkiye—widely seen as the closest external power to the rebel factions—into a spotlight it neither sought nor fully avoided. The speed and ease with which… Continue reading As Syria Heats Up, Türkiye Finds Itself in the Spotlight

Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

People drive past buildings, destroyed during the war between Hezbollah and Israel, in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on December 1, 2024. - The Israeli military carried out air strikes in Lebanon on December 1 against Hezbollah activities that it said "posed a threat", days into a fragile ceasefire between it and the Iran-backed group. (Photo by Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)

After more than a year of hostilities that intensified dramatically in recent months, Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, but the fragile agreement has already been tested by reported violations. In this interview with Afkār, Saoud El Mawla, visiting senior fellow at the ME Council, examines the deal’s significance and durability, as well… Continue reading Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis

-- AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2024 -- People rush to landing humanitarian aid packages dropped over the northern Gaza Strip on April 23, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and the militant group Hamas. (Photo by AFP) / NO USE AFTER JANUARY 31, 2025 23:00:00 GMT - AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2024

For more than a year, Palestinians have faced a systematic and relentless assault on their homeland, amounting to the most profound crisis since the Nakba of 1948. Following the events of October 7, 2023, Israel has embarked on a genocidal campaign against the population of the Gaza Strip and stepped up its repression in the… Continue reading Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis

Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War

(221207) -- RIYADH, Dec. 7, 2022 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping is warmly greeted upon his arrival by Governor of Riyadh Province Prince Faisal bin Bandar Al Saud, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Minister Yasir Al-Rumayyan who works on China affairs and other key members of the royal family and senior officials of the government at the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dec. 7, 2022. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived here Wednesday afternoon to attend the first China-Arab States Summit and the China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit, and pay a state visit to Saudi Arabia at the invitation of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia. (Xinhua/Huang Jingwen) (Photo by Huang Jingwen / XINHUA / Xinhua via AFP)

For many years, China has been expanding its influence to every corner of the globe. And while its strategic priorities remain anchored in the Western Pacific—where it faces great-power rivalry with the United States, myriad territorial disputes, tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the potential for military conflict over the Taiwan Strait—its steadily growing presence… Continue reading Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War

Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East

On November 6, within hours of closing the polls, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin. Trump’s remarkable triumph, which will return him to the White House after his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020, comes at a… Continue reading Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East

Ethiopia and Somalia on the Edge of War

MOGADISHU, SOMALIA - JANUARY 11: Hundreds protest against Ethiopia signing a memorandum of understanding for maritime access with Somaliland, which declared its unilateral independence from the country, in Mogadishu, Somalia on January 11, 2023. Abuukar Mohamed Muhidin / Anadolu (Photo by Abuukar Mohamed Muhidin / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

For months, momentum had been building toward war between Ethiopia and Somalia. After the breakaway region of Somaliland signed an agreement with Addis Ababa in January to exchange littoral rights for potential diplomatic recognition, tensions soared across the Horn of Africa. While recent weeks have seen the regional boil reduce to a simmer, other hot-button… Continue reading Ethiopia and Somalia on the Edge of War