Two Years In, Sudan War Shows Little Sign of Ending  

A fighter loyal to the army patrols a market area in Khartoum on March 24, 2025. For nearly two years, Sudan has been ravaged by a war between the regular army and the RSF, a conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people, uprooted over 12 million more and created the world's largest hunger and displacement crises. (Photo by AFP)

As Sudan’s brutal civil war enters its third year, political and military developments on the ground have sparked speculation that a turning point may be near. But a closer look reveals a bleaker reality: an end to the conflict, whether through a political settlement or military victory, remains distant. More worrying, the recent shifts have… Continue reading Two Years In, Sudan War Shows Little Sign of Ending  

U.S. Disengagement Spurs Turkish-European Defense Cooperation

ANKARA, TURKIYE - DECEMBER 18: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY - MANDATORY CREDIT - DEFENSE MINISTRY OF TURKIYE / HANDOUT' - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) Eurofighter Typhoon jet from the UK's Royal Air Force lands at Murted Air Base in Ankara for inspection by Turkish officials on December 18, 2024. Two Eurofighter jets, which recently participated in a drill in Qatar, arrived in Ankara for inspection by Turkish officials due to potential purchase. Turkish Defense Ministry / Handout / Anadolu (Photo by Turkish Defense Ministry / Hando / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

As the United States’ long-standing commitment to European security erodes under the Trump administration, the bloc’s defense partnership with Türkiye hit a new milestone in March, when a consortium of Europe’s leading arms companies submitted a formal bid to sell Ankara 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets.   The fighters have seen active service in the air forces… Continue reading U.S. Disengagement Spurs Turkish-European Defense Cooperation

Abu Dhabi’s Quiet Engagement in Afghanistan May Ease Taliban Isolation

This handout picture provided by the UAE Presidential Court shows UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (R) meeting with Sirajuddin Haqqani (2nd-L), interior minister in Afghanistan's Taliban administration, at al-Shati Palace in Abu Dhabi on January 20, 2025. (Photo by Abdulla AL-BEDWAWI / UAE PRESIDENTIAL COURT / AFP) / === RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / UAE PRESIDENTIAL COURT- NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS ===

For nearly a decade, international diplomacy concerning Afghanistan was mainly mediated by Qatar. Yet since the Taliban rolled into Kabul in August 2021, leading figures from the movement have made a string of high-profile visits to another key Gulf powerbroker, the United Arab Emirates. Their warm reception by the Emirati authorities suggests that Abu Dhabi… Continue reading Abu Dhabi’s Quiet Engagement in Afghanistan May Ease Taliban Isolation

Trump’s Aid Cuts Sever Stalwart of U.S. Soft Power in the Middle East 

A protestor holds a sign as people gather outside the Ronald Reagan Building during a "clap out" in support of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) fired staff who received word to retrieve their personal belongings from USAID headquarters in Washington, DC, on February 27, 2025. Most employees at USAID have been placed on leave or fired by midnight on February 23, the aid agency said, as President Donald Trump's administration plows ahead in slashing government spending. (Photo by Ting Shen / AFP)

Amid the whirlwind of executive orders and major policy shifts coming out of the White House, President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze the operations of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which administers most U.S. foreign assistance, threatens to have a wide impact around the world. If prolonged, many programs in countries across the… Continue reading Trump’s Aid Cuts Sever Stalwart of U.S. Soft Power in the Middle East 

Rebuilding Forever: Lessons of our failures

DAMASCUS, SYRIA - MARCH 13: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa signs a declaration outlining the main provisions of the interim constitution in a ceremony held at the People's Palace in the capital Damascus, Syria on March 13, 2025. Izettin Kasim / Anadolu (Photo by Izettin Kasim / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

*This article is the second part in a two-part series. Read Part 1 here.  If Syria’s Arab Spring forerunners have a fundamental lesson to impart, it is that achieving a symbiosis between a revolution’s leadership and its public is required to successfully transmute a deposed tyranny into a nation of self-determination and the representative state… Continue reading Rebuilding Forever: Lessons of our failures

The Arab Plan for Gaza Has Two Problems: Israel and the PA

A handout picture provided by the Egyptian Presidency shows a group picture during the Arab League summit on Gaza, in Cairo, on March 4, 2025. (Photo by Egyptian Presidency / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / HO /EGYPTIAN PRESIDENCY " - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS

Egypt’s proposal for the reconstruction and administration of Gaza has emerged as an urgent intervention in the crisis that has unfolded since October 7, 2023. Backed by the Arab states, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and several European nations, the plan is not merely a humanitarian initiative—it is a geopolitical maneuver meant to counter the… Continue reading The Arab Plan for Gaza Has Two Problems: Israel and the PA

Is Russia Entering U.S.-Iranian Nuclear Negotiations?  

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian shake hands during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on January 17, 2025. (Photo by Evgenia Novozhenina / POOL / AFP)

A three-way dance is developing between Washington, Moscow and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter directly to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, asking to enter negotiations, while indicating to the media separately that the alternative would be military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Khamenei responded… Continue reading Is Russia Entering U.S.-Iranian Nuclear Negotiations?  

Call to Disband PKK Reshapes Türkiye, Syria Power Dynamics 

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. Ocalan issued a historic call on February 27 for his Kurdish militant force to disband and his fighters to lay down their arms. (Photo by Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP)

The consequences of the call by the founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, for the group to disband are still reverberating—not just in Türkiye but also in the wider region.  Shifting alliances in Syria—exemplified by the recent agreement between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian government—confirm that Ocalan’s message… Continue reading Call to Disband PKK Reshapes Türkiye, Syria Power Dynamics 

As Trump Imposes Tariffs, What Will US Protectionism Mean for MENA and the Global Economy?

Shipping containers are stacked high at the Port of Long Beach on March 4, 2025 in Long Beach, California, as US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect. US President Donald Trump could announce a compromise tariff arrangement with Canada and Mexico on March 5, his commerce secretary said in an interview, shortly after sweeping 25-percent levies went into effect. "I think he's going to work something out with them," Howard Lutnick told Fox Business on Tuesday. "Somewhere in the middle will likely be the outcome, the president moving with the Canadians and Mexicans, but not all the way." (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP)

The United States has long been the world’s leading advocate for free trade, promoting it as a means of expanding global commerce and specialization in production that links economies into diversified supply chains. This has led to an unprecedented period of economic growth and poverty alleviation, a period anchored largely in an international rules-based order… Continue reading As Trump Imposes Tariffs, What Will US Protectionism Mean for MENA and the Global Economy?

In Post-Genocide Gaza, Women Will Rise from the Rubble

Palestinian women walk across building debris following an Israeli airstrike at the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, on Friday, Jan. 3, 2025. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized a delegation to travel to Qatar for discussions on a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. (Photo by Saeed Jaras / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)

On September 19, 2023, weeks before October 7 and the onset of the genocidal war that has consumed Gaza, 80 Palestinian women gathered in the blockaded territory to discuss the future. They were empowered leaders, successful entrepreneurs, professional businesswomen, committed academics and innovative engineers and scientists—all united under the umbrella of the Business and Professional… Continue reading In Post-Genocide Gaza, Women Will Rise from the Rubble

For Syria, Lessons from Our Past Failures

A man and a woman wave the Syrian opposition flag next to a boy selling balloons as crowds gather near the Citadel of Aleppo in Aleppo, Syria, on January 21, 2025. Years of civil war have left large parts of the city in ruins, forcing residents to navigate the destruction in their daily lives. (Photo by Bilal Alhammoud / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)

The Assad family, like so many tyrannies before them, allowed their power, impunity, isolation and the resultant narcissism to foster a belief that their world would never end. Assad’s supporters—both for the father, Hafez, and the son, Bashar—would chant “our leader forever.” Until the day inevitably came when their rule ended and people sang, “forever… Continue reading For Syria, Lessons from Our Past Failures

Fast-Moving Geopolitical Dynamics Challenge Yemen and the Houthis

SANAA, YEMEN - NOVEMBER 15: People take part in a demonstration organized by the Houthis to protest Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon as they gather on Sebin Street in Sanaa, Yemen on November 15, 2024. Mohammed Hamoud / Anadolu (Photo by Mohammed Hamoud / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

The fall of the Assad regime in Damascus represents a critical turning point in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Beforehand, Syria functioned as a strategic link supporting Iranian influence from Tehran to Beirut and onwards to Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, making it a crucial component in the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”   Recent setbacks to… Continue reading Fast-Moving Geopolitical Dynamics Challenge Yemen and the Houthis

The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA

US President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House on February 10, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP)

Since returning to office on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump has issued 67 executive orders, more than double any other president in American history. Given that some of those orders have serious implications for the Middle East and North Africa, Afkār has compiled views from Middle East Council on Global Affairs scholars to analyze some… Continue reading The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA

Will Trump Remove Syria’s New Rulers from America’s Foreign Terrorist List?

DAMASCUS, SYRIA - DECEMBER 26: Roadside vendors in Damascus sell gasoline and diesel to drivers due to fuel production failing to meet demand in Damascus, Syria on December 26, 2024. In the new era, energy emerges as a priority in Syria, with lifting sanctions and utilizing oil resources among key issues. Following the fall of the 61-year-long Baath regime and the 53-year Assad family rule, the interim government continues efforts to improve living conditions for citizens. Hasan Belal / Anadolu (Photo by Hasan Belal / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

Since 1997, the U.S. State Department has compiled a catalog of organizations it considers foreign terrorists. The FTO list, as it is known, has become a powerful tool in Washington’s “war on terror,” by subjecting parties on the list to the weight of American delegitimization and economic sanctions. Moreover, the qualification and threshold for being… Continue reading Will Trump Remove Syria’s New Rulers from America’s Foreign Terrorist List?

Maximum Pressure on Iran, Minimal Results

Among the top foreign policy issues Donald Trump faces in his second term are the perceived challenges and threats posed by Iran. To this end, Trump revived the “maximum pressure” campaign that characterized his approach to Iran in his previous term. At the same time, hawks in Washington are calling on the administration to support… Continue reading Maximum Pressure on Iran, Minimal Results

Assad’s Fall in Syria Poses Serious Questions Inside Iraq

A picture taken during a tour organised by Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation Forces) shows members of a joint Hashed and Iraqi army force standing guard at the Iraqi-Syrian border on December 5, 2024, amid an Islamist-led rebel offensive in Syria. On December 2, Iraq said it had sent armoured vehicles to bolster security along its 600-kilometre (370-mile) border with Syria. (Photo by Zaid AL-OBEIDI / AFP)

Recent developments in Syria, including the fall of the Assad regime, Iran’s failure to quell the rebel advance into Damascus and subsequent withdrawal of its proxies from the country, have generated shockwaves in neighboring Iraq. For the first time in Iraq’s post-2003 political history, the prospect of breaking Iran’s outsized influence over the Iraqi state… Continue reading Assad’s Fall in Syria Poses Serious Questions Inside Iraq

TikTok Is Back, but for Whom?

TikTok video streaming and sharing app is seen in this illustration photo on 20 January, 2025. (Photo by Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto)

U.S. users briefly lost access to popular social media platform TikTok earlier this week, following a legislative push to force the app’s Chinese-owned parent company to divest from its U.S. operations. While Donald Trump had endorsed the effort to ban the app during his first term, he recently reversed his stance, signing an executive order… Continue reading TikTok Is Back, but for Whom?

With a New Government in Charge, a New Era in Lebanon Beckons

Newly elected Lebanese president Joseph Aoun delivers a speech at the parliament building in Beirut on January 9, 2025. Lebanon's lawmakers elected army chief Joseph Aoun as president on January 9, after a two-year vacancy of the position, in a step towards lifting the war-battered country out of financial crisis. (Photo by ANWAR AMRO / AFP)

The nomination of Nawaf Salam as Lebanon’s new prime minister alongside Joseph Aoun as president, after more than two years of political vacuum, is a momentous occasion heralding a new era for Lebanon. It can be an historical opportunity akin to the 1989 Taif Agreement, which formed the basis of ending Lebanon’s 15-year civil war… Continue reading With a New Government in Charge, a New Era in Lebanon Beckons

Will U.S. Sustain Pressure on Israel to Implement the Ceasefire Deal?

Residents of the Bureij camp watch news updates together on January 14, 2025. Displaced residents follow developments as they await signs of peace and a ceasefire. (Photo by Moiz Salhi / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)

President-elect Donald Trump appears to have followed through with his promise to achieve a Gaza ceasefire before his inauguration on January 20. The incoming administration succeeded where the Biden administration failed, showing that U.S. pressure on Israel can lead to results. While many dismissed Trump’s threat that “all hell will break out” if the hostages… Continue reading Will U.S. Sustain Pressure on Israel to Implement the Ceasefire Deal?

MENA Outlook for 2025

With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025

With Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will Iranian People Respond?

Men wave Iranian flags and flags of Lebanon's Hezbollah during a pro-government rally in southern Tehran, Iran, on December 29, 2024. The 9th of Dey Rally commemorates the pro-government rallies held on December 30, 2009, which are a response to the Ashura protests amid Iran's 2009 post-presidential election unrest. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto) (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will Iranian People Respond?

Whither the New Syria?

Stacks of Syrian pound banknotes are piled on top of each other at a currency trader's stall at a market in the city of Manbij, currently controlled by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army faction, in Syria's northern Aleppo province on January 4, 2025. (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)

As history was made in Syria over the past month, seismic shocks have reverberated across the region. To start, the world witnessed the final convulsion of the World War I-era Sykes-Picot Agreement, which one historian called, with due irony, “a peace to end all peace.” Perhaps more ironic still, the signatories of that bygone treaty,… Continue reading Whither the New Syria?

Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

Traders observe the stock market at Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) during the official listing ceremony for Meeza QSTP LLC (Public) at the Qatar Stock Exchange in Doha, Qatar on 23 August 2023 (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil/NurPhoto) (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse

In early December, the Palestinian banking sector narrowly avoided financial freefall, as Israel’s far-right finance minister toyed with removing a crucial safeguard underpinning the correspondent relationship between Palestinian and Israeli banks. These safeguards protect the Israeli side from domestic and international legal risks arising from transactions with their Palestinian counterparts, offering immunity and indemnity if… Continue reading A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse

Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die

A Syrian rebel fighter walks past Muslim worshippers attending the first weekly Friday prayers since the ouster of president Bashar al-Assad at the Umayyad mosque in the old city of Damascus on December 13, 2024. - Islamist-led rebels took Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. (Photo by Aris MESSINIS / AFP)

The lightening quick takeover of Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led-fighters in an offensive that began on November 27 and ousted the 54-year old Assad regime by December 8, has been stunning. Indeed, the speed of developments has left many observers with more questions than answers, including on the character of the rebel forces,… Continue reading Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die

Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Jordanians chant slogans during a demonstration near the Embassy of Israel in Amman on March 28, 2024, in support of Palestinians amid ongoing battles between Israel and the militant Hamas group in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by Khalil MAZRAAWI / AFP)

Editor’s Note  The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins

Syrian rebel fighters celebrate at the Clock Tower in the heart of the central city of Homs early on December 8, 2024, after rebel forces entered Syria's third city overnight. - Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied anti-goovernment factions have pressed a lightning offensive since November 27, sweeping swathes of the country from government control, including major cities Aleppo, Hama and Homs. (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)

On December 8, the world awoke to stunning news. Overnight, rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had taken Damascus, facing little resistance as they entered the Syrian capital. Most of the state’s security agents and armed forces simply abandoned their positions and walked away. In an instant, the Assad regime’s fifty-four-year brutal rule… Continue reading Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins

As Syria Heats Up, Türkiye Finds Itself in the Spotlight

Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces. (Photo by Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto) (Photo by Rami Alsayed / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

The sudden and dramatic developments in northern Syria—beginning in the outskirts of Idlib and surrounding villages near Aleppo and culminating in Syria’s second largest city falling into rebel hands—have thrust Türkiye—widely seen as the closest external power to the rebel factions—into a spotlight it neither sought nor fully avoided. The speed and ease with which… Continue reading As Syria Heats Up, Türkiye Finds Itself in the Spotlight

Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

People drive past buildings, destroyed during the war between Hezbollah and Israel, in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on December 1, 2024. - The Israeli military carried out air strikes in Lebanon on December 1 against Hezbollah activities that it said "posed a threat", days into a fragile ceasefire between it and the Iran-backed group. (Photo by Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)

After more than a year of hostilities that intensified dramatically in recent months, Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, but the fragile agreement has already been tested by reported violations. In this interview with Afkār, Saoud El Mawla, visiting senior fellow at the ME Council, examines the deal’s significance and durability, as well… Continue reading Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis

-- AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2024 -- People rush to landing humanitarian aid packages dropped over the northern Gaza Strip on April 23, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and the militant group Hamas. (Photo by AFP) / NO USE AFTER JANUARY 31, 2025 23:00:00 GMT - AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2024

For more than a year, Palestinians have faced a systematic and relentless assault on their homeland, amounting to the most profound crisis since the Nakba of 1948. Following the events of October 7, 2023, Israel has embarked on a genocidal campaign against the population of the Gaza Strip and stepped up its repression in the… Continue reading Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis

Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War

(221207) -- RIYADH, Dec. 7, 2022 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping is warmly greeted upon his arrival by Governor of Riyadh Province Prince Faisal bin Bandar Al Saud, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Minister Yasir Al-Rumayyan who works on China affairs and other key members of the royal family and senior officials of the government at the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dec. 7, 2022. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived here Wednesday afternoon to attend the first China-Arab States Summit and the China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit, and pay a state visit to Saudi Arabia at the invitation of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia. (Xinhua/Huang Jingwen) (Photo by Huang Jingwen / XINHUA / Xinhua via AFP)

For many years, China has been expanding its influence to every corner of the globe. And while its strategic priorities remain anchored in the Western Pacific—where it faces great-power rivalry with the United States, myriad territorial disputes, tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the potential for military conflict over the Taiwan Strait—its steadily growing presence… Continue reading Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War

Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East

On November 6, within hours of closing the polls, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin. Trump’s remarkable triumph, which will return him to the White House after his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020, comes at a… Continue reading Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East

Ethiopia and Somalia on the Edge of War

MOGADISHU, SOMALIA - JANUARY 11: Hundreds protest against Ethiopia signing a memorandum of understanding for maritime access with Somaliland, which declared its unilateral independence from the country, in Mogadishu, Somalia on January 11, 2023. Abuukar Mohamed Muhidin / Anadolu (Photo by Abuukar Mohamed Muhidin / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

For months, momentum had been building toward war between Ethiopia and Somalia. After the breakaway region of Somaliland signed an agreement with Addis Ababa in January to exchange littoral rights for potential diplomatic recognition, tensions soared across the Horn of Africa. While recent weeks have seen the regional boil reduce to a simmer, other hot-button… Continue reading Ethiopia and Somalia on the Edge of War

Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum

On October 21, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Manama and met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, marking a significant turning point in Iran-Bahrain relations that have been severed since 2016. This visit—the first by an Iranian foreign minister to Bahrain since 2010—took place amid an escalating military confrontation between Iran and Israel. While Bahrain… Continue reading Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum

Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World

When United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) was adopted on October 31, 2000, it marked an unprecedented commitment by the international community to regard women as integral partners in peace processes. The WPS “agenda,” as it came to be known, encompasses ten UNSC resolutions that recognize the devastating… Continue reading Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World

How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?

On October 26, Israel carried out a long-anticipated strike against Iran, which came in retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage on Israel earlier this month—itself a response to a series of Israeli assassinations of Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas leaders since July. The latest exchange, however, marks a significant escalation in the confrontation between the two… Continue reading How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?

The BRICS+ Summit and the Shifting Global Order

On October 22nd, Russia will host the BRICS+ annual summit—its ranks swelled by new members and ambitions. As this year’s chair, Russia presides over a bloc that now represents 45.5% of the world’s population—more than four times that of the G7—with a combined GDP of $28.5tn, and 25% of global exports. BRICS+ is poised to… Continue reading The BRICS+ Summit and the Shifting Global Order

Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions

The Saudi-Iranian renormalization agreement of March 2023 was a watershed in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. Yet while China received much of the credit for the reconciliation, which cooled the flames of one of the region’s most tense rivalries, the previous two years of heavy lifting had largely been the work of Iraq and the Sultanate… Continue reading Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions

Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis

A major humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Lebanon. Israel’s attacks have exacted a heavy toll with over 2,000 people killed and 9,000 wounded. The last two weeks have wreaked severe damage on core infrastructure, public utilities, water, sanitation, power and roads. The country’s health system has also been degraded. Much of Beirut’s Dahiyeh and South Lebanon stands… Continue reading Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis

A Region Under Fire

Editor’s Note: There Are No Winners Here  Omar H. Rahman, Fellow and Editor of Afkār, Middle East Council on Global Affairs   The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023. Decades of military occupation, colonial land theft and systemic deprivation had already pushed Palestinians into a state of constant struggle, laying the groundwork… Continue reading A Region Under Fire

Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?

In the aftermath of Israel’s successful assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and as Israel begins its ground incursion in parts of southern Lebanon, two interrelated issues emerge.   First, the status of Hezbollah and its future role in Lebanon and the region come into question. While Nasrallah’s assassination dealt a significant blow to the… Continue reading Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?

Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views

ANKARA, TURKIYE - AUGUST 13: Turkish Minister Hakan Fidan (C), Minister of Foreign Affairs of Somalia, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi (R) and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, Taye Atske Selassie Amde (L) hold a joint press conference after their meeting in Ankara, Turkiye on August 13, 2024. Arda Kucukkaya / Anadolu (Photo by Arda Kucukkaya / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

On January 1, the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland and landlocked Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting the latter port access to the Red Sea. In exchange for a 50-year lease of coastline near the strategic port of Berbera for commercial and naval uses, Addis Ababa agreed to consider recognizing Somaliland as a… Continue reading Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views

Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah

BEIRUT, LEBANON - (ARCHIVE): A file photo dated July 23, 2006 shows a Lebanese man showing a poster of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that he found among the rubble of his house as he came to Haret Hreik area to find his belongings in the rubble in Dahiyeh neighborhood which has been bombed by Israeli warplanes for days, in Beirut, Lebanon. Riza Ozel / Anadolu (Photo by RIZA OZEL / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

On September 28, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah following a massive Israeli airstrike in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. The assassination of Nasrallah follows a series of escalatory measures that includes the disruption of Hezbollah’s communication network through an explosive pager operation, the assassinations of other senior leaders in the… Continue reading Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah

Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”

TEHRAN, IRAN - SEPTEMBER 29: A view of the front pages of the newspapers featured news about the death of Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli strike in the Lebanese capital on Friday, at a store in Tehran, Iran on September 29, 2024. Fatemeh Bahrami / Anadolu (Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its attacks in Lebanon, dealing a critical blow to much of Hezbollah’s top military leadership, including the late Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In this interview with Afkār, Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert and security analyst, offers his insights on Tehran’s strategic calculus at this watershed moment, including on… Continue reading Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”

Interview: Türkiye Engages the Arab League

CAIRO, EGYPT - SEPTEMBER 10: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan makes a speech during the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Arab League, on September 10, 2024 in Cairo, Egypt. Arda Kucukkaya / Anadolu (Photo by Arda Kucukkaya / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

At the most recent meeting of the League of Arab States (LAS) in Cairo, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was in attendance, marking the first time Türkiye has been represented at the summit in 13 years. In his address, Fidan offered pointed remarks on the war on Gaza and the need for unity among Arab… Continue reading Interview: Türkiye Engages the Arab League

Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?

Rescuers sift through the rubble at the scene of an Israeli strike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs a day earlier, as search and rescue operations continue on September 21, 2024. - Lebanon's Hezbollah said on September 21 that a second senior commander was among 16 fighters killed in an Israeli air strike on its Beirut stronghold the previous day, highlighting the scale of the blow to its military leadership. (Photo by AFP)

On September 23, Israel began a major military offensive against Lebanon that left around 500 people dead, mainly civilians, and caused mass panic across the south of the country. This followed days of strikes against Hezbollah commanders and a surprise attack on Hezbollah personnel by triggering the explosion of thousands of low-tech communications devices like… Continue reading Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?

Assessing Qatar’s Deepening Ties to Iraqi Kurdistan

Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq Masrour Barzani at the opening of the Qatar General Consulate in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan on May 26, 2024. (Source: masrourbarzani/X)

Over the past year, Qatar and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq have ramped up their relations. Under Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has prioritized improved diplomatic and economic ties to the Gulf. That has included expanded trade with Doha, particularly in agriculture. Erbil and the Gulf states are also improving their… Continue reading Assessing Qatar’s Deepening Ties to Iraqi Kurdistan

Sudan’s Dam Disaster: Where Climate Change Meets War

People carry a boat in muddy waters after the collapse of the Arbaat Dam, 40km north of Port Sudan following heavy rains and torrential floods on August 25, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

The deadly collapse of a dam in Sudan following torrential rains has highlighted the country’s perilous position at the nexus of a devastating conflict and the climate crisis. The Arbaat Dam burst on August 25, destroying 20 villages and severely damaging dozens more, displacing thousands of people and cutting off critical supply routes. The flooding,… Continue reading Sudan’s Dam Disaster: Where Climate Change Meets War

As Mainstream Media Fails Gaza, Social Media Fights to Tell the Real Story

View of Palestine Solidarity Action mural set up in Amsterdam, Netherlands, on June 28, 2024.

The war on Gaza which erupted in October has captured global attention due to the significant humanitarian cost, extensive infrastructure damage, and high casualty figures. According to UNICEF, tens of thousands of people have been killed in the past 10 months, including more than 14,000 children.  Many more have been seriously injured or remain missing under… Continue reading As Mainstream Media Fails Gaza, Social Media Fights to Tell the Real Story

Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?

US White House senior adviser and climate envoy John Podesta (L) speaks during a bilateral meeting with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on September 6, 2024. (Photo by Andy Wong / POOL / AFP)

Cooperation between China and the United States in the Middle East has become a common topic of discussion between academics and experts these days. The two great powers have vested interests in the region that are jeopardized by its chronic instability and the growing threat of regional war. Cooperation between the two should be a… Continue reading Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?