The Arab Gulf region stands at a pivotal moment. After more than five decades of economic planning largely shaped by imported models, external expertise, and prescribed solutions, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are moving into a new phase, one that calls for locally driven economic thinking, greater regional self-reliance, and the confidence to forge an independent path.… Continue reading Why the Gulf Must Build Its Own Economic Playbook
Afkar Region: GCC
Who Pumps the Oil… and Who Controls It?
Iran’s announcement that “non-hostile vessels” will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz is the latest—and perhaps clearest—illustration of how oil has become a weapon of war. In a letter to the International Maritime Organization, Tehran framed the restriction of certain vessels as a lawful act of self-defense, explicitly linking access to the world’s most critical… Continue reading Who Pumps the Oil… and Who Controls It?
GCC Air Defense Between Challenge and Transformation
The Arab Gulf has entered a critical phase in which its security architecture is being actively reshaped. The expansion of the U.S.–Israeli confrontation with Iran, and the resulting spillover across the region, has moved the Gulf from a peripheral theater to a central arena of escalation. Cross-border attacks targeting vital infrastructure—using ballistic missiles such as… Continue reading GCC Air Defense Between Challenge and Transformation
To Protect Its Strategic Interests, the Gulf Must Form a More Cohesive Bloc
The gravity of war in the Middle East cannot be measured by the depth of depleted arsenals or the number of sorties that streak across its skies, but by the structural imbalances it exposes and the truths it lays bare—truths that have long been hidden behind facades of alliances, agreements, and hollow slogans. The open confrontation unfolding today between the United States and Israel on one… Continue reading To Protect Its Strategic Interests, the Gulf Must Form a More Cohesive Bloc
Israel’s Strike on North Field–South Pars: Energy War and Global Risk
On March 18, 2026, an Israeli air raid targeted treatment facilities at Asaluyeh, the onshore processing hub for Iran’s largest natural gas field and a bedrock of domestic supply. The governor of Asaluyeh confirmed the facilities were “taken offline” to control fires, with no immediate disclosure of production losses. Israeli military sources acknowledged that the… Continue reading Israel’s Strike on North Field–South Pars: Energy War and Global Risk
The Gulf’s Diplomatic Counterstrike at the UNSC
There are no silver linings for the Gulf in the current war, where the human toll and economic disruption are front and center. Yet on the global diplomatic front, the Gulf states leveraged their investments and influence at the United Nations to deliver an historic outcome in support of their security. Bahrain presented Security Council resolution 2817 on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Jordan, adopted… Continue reading The Gulf’s Diplomatic Counterstrike at the UNSC
Strategic Transformations in Gulf Security: From Negotiation and Deterrence to Engagement
This article was originally published in Arabic and has been translated into English. Even over the years prior to the latest Israeli-American war on Iran, the Gulf security environment had undergone a profound reshaping in terms of patterns of strategic interaction. This had shifted the region from a phase of restrained pressure and mutual… Continue reading Strategic Transformations in Gulf Security: From Negotiation and Deterrence to Engagement
How the Gulf States Can Navigate the Middle East’s New Alliance Politics
Alliance politics is returning to the Middle East in ways that recall earlier eras of regional competition, but with a far more complex geometry. Recent remarks by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggesting that a broader network of alliances is emerging around Israel, linking partners such as India, Greece, and Cyprus alongside other regional actors, reflect a wider reconfiguration of regional alignments accelerated… Continue reading How the Gulf States Can Navigate the Middle East’s New Alliance Politics
The Gulf Stability Model is Under Pressure
As the war between the United States, Israel and Iran enters its third week, its consequences are continuing to spread well beyond the battlefield. Missile strikes have hit critical infrastructure across the Gulf, while threats against commercial shipping have effectively shut down normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the latter part of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. The commodity pricing agency S&P Global Platts has already suspended… Continue reading The Gulf Stability Model is Under Pressure
Six, or One Bloc of Six?
At first glance, readers might wonder about the meaning of this title and its implications. However, the answer will become clear in the lines that follow, which aim to provide an interpretation that clarifies the title’s significance. As the US–Israeli war against Iran passes its sixteenth day, and despite the uncertainty around its end, it… Continue reading Six, or One Bloc of Six?
Water Must Not Become A Target in the Region’s Wars
In the arid lands of the Arab Gulf, water is often said to be more precious than oil. Over the past half-century, oil revenues have driven rapid population expansion and the construction of modern metropolises. However, freshwater resources are limited, requiring Gulf states to increasingly rely on desalination to survive and thrive. The primacy and scarcity of water have… Continue reading Water Must Not Become A Target in the Region’s Wars
How Gulf Defense Capabilities Are Preventing Further Escalation with Iran
The joint U.S.–Israeli strikes against Iran that began February 28—culminating in the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—sent shockwaves through the Middle East and immediately raised fears of a wider regional war. Within hours, those fears appeared justified. Tehran retaliated not only against the United States and Israel but broadened its battlefield to include the… Continue reading How Gulf Defense Capabilities Are Preventing Further Escalation with Iran
How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
The Israeli-U.S. war on Iran has thrown Gulf societies into a complex state of anxiety and emotional vigilance. This reaction is not merely a response to rapid military developments. It reflects a mindset shaped over decades by historical experience and repeated security crises. As regional tensions escalate and threaten the Gulf’s vital interests, public sentiment… Continue reading How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
The Costs of the Iran Conflict for the Gulf
In short order, the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has expanded across the region, with Gulf states bearing the brunt of Tehran’s retaliatory campaign aimed at dispersing the costs of the war and pressuring Washington to halt its offensive. This has included targeting energy infrastructure, shipping routes and aviation networks, threatening not only regional stability but… Continue reading The Costs of the Iran Conflict for the Gulf
Avoiding War with Iran Is the Gulf’s Only Winning Move
In the months following Israel’s overwhelmingly disproportionate response to the October 7 attacks, diplomats and international observers repeatedly warned that the war risked expanding beyond Gaza and destabilizing the wider region. Governments and international organizations cautioned that unless the violence was halted, it would inevitably spill across borders and draw neighboring states into confrontation. Israel’s… Continue reading Avoiding War with Iran Is the Gulf’s Only Winning Move
Iran’s Regional Gamble and Its Implications for the Future of Gulf Security
The Iranian leadership made two major strategic mistakes. The first was failing to seize the opportunity to reach an agreement with the United States while the window for negotiations was still open — a step that could have spared the region further tension and instability. The second mistake was targeting the Gulf states, which had… Continue reading Iran’s Regional Gamble and Its Implications for the Future of Gulf Security
Qatar Emerges as an LNG Hedge Against Trade Policy Instability in the U.S.
The Trump administration’s trade policy has become a prominent source of global economic anxiety. Over the past year, the administration has turned tariffs and trade threats into blunt transactional instruments of foreign policy, demanding allies purchase more U.S. commodities—especially liquified natural gas (LNG)—in exchange for market access and political favor. What Washington calls “rebalancing,” many… Continue reading Qatar Emerges as an LNG Hedge Against Trade Policy Instability in the U.S.
Between War and Dialogue: Can a U.S.–Iran Confrontation Be Prevented?
As tensions rise between the United States and Iran, international attention has once again turned toward the Gulf. From maritime security incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz, to renewed sanctions and nuclear threats, this rising escalation between the two actors exposes the region’s fragility. The Gulf is central to global energy flows… Continue reading Between War and Dialogue: Can a U.S.–Iran Confrontation Be Prevented?
How Trump’s Venezuela Play Is Testing a New Global Oil Order
One month after the Trump administration’s abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the contours of a new oil order are beginning to emerge. U.S. authorities continue to seize “shadow fleet” oil tankers—at least seven, so far—carrying sanctioned Venezuelan exports in a pressure campaign that began in the run-up to Operation Absolute Resolve. President Donald Trump… Continue reading How Trump’s Venezuela Play Is Testing a New Global Oil Order
Why the Gulf States Share in the AI Governance Dilemma
When regulators began discussing adjustments to the European Union’s Artificial Intelligence Act of 2024, mere months after its passage, it was a clear sign of the regulatory challenges in this sector. The comprehensive legislation was the first of its kind, and even seasoned regulators like the EU were struggling amid political and corporate pressure, unable to set realistic and effective measures to guide rapid advances in AI technology. For observers in the Gulf, these challenges were a warning sign of the urgent need to balance innovation with risk management. … Continue reading Why the Gulf States Share in the AI Governance Dilemma
As Latest Yemen Crisis Eases, A Dangerous Moment Arises
After a transformative few weeks that have seen its political map change drastically, Yemen is once again at a dangerous crossroads. The risk of escalation and renewed confrontation remains real, even as sustained efforts are being made to prevent such an outcome. Recent events have underscored just how narrow the margin for error has become,… Continue reading As Latest Yemen Crisis Eases, A Dangerous Moment Arises
Momentous change sweeps Yemen as STC overreaches in Hadramawt
In little over a month, Yemen has undergone significant changes on the ground and in the political dynamics underpinning more than ten years of war. In early December, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) initiated a military operation in the governorates of Hadramawt and al-Mahra that brought nearly the entirety of southern and eastern Yemen under… Continue reading Momentous change sweeps Yemen as STC overreaches in Hadramawt
Saudis Consider Major Rule Change that Could Boost Their Economy
When news broke in late September that Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange was considering removing limits on foreign ownership of listed companies by the end of the year, the market surged, helping to erase losses that had made the Tadawul All-Share Index (TASI) one of the world’s lowest-performing stock markets in 2025. Although there have been… Continue reading Saudis Consider Major Rule Change that Could Boost Their Economy
With Mediation More Important Than Ever, Mediators Must Be Protected
Conflict mediation has emerged as one of the most indispensable tools in the contemporary international system. At a time when great-power competition intensifies across multiple domains, political, economic, and technological, the ability of neutral mediators to facilitate communication and reduce the risks of escalation is more crucial than ever. Yet despite its importance, conflict mediation… Continue reading With Mediation More Important Than Ever, Mediators Must Be Protected
Israel’s Strike on Doha: What It Means for the Region
On September 9, Israel’s military fired several missiles into a residential neighborhood in Doha targeting a meeting of senior Hamas officials discussing the latest American proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza. Although six people were killed, including a Qatari security official, none were the primary targets. The global backlash to the strike has been intense,… Continue reading Israel’s Strike on Doha: What It Means for the Region
Trump’s Climate Silence Risks Undermining Gulf Engagement
Earlier this year, U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the Gulf with a familiar list of themes: deals, defense and data. Over four days, he visited Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, securing over $2 trillion in investment pledges and announcing sweeping agreements on artificial intelligence, fossil fuel infrastructure and defense. Yet one issue was… Continue reading Trump’s Climate Silence Risks Undermining Gulf Engagement
Five Years On, UAE-Israel Normalization Weathers the Gaza Storm
When the United Arab Emirates normalized relations with Israel five years ago, it likely expected a degree of discomfort given negative public opinion of Israel in the region amid its ongoing military occupation of Palestine. But the intensification of violent conflict—first in May 2021, and then on a much larger scale after October 7, 2023—has… Continue reading Five Years On, UAE-Israel Normalization Weathers the Gaza Storm
Small Tax, Big Bargain: Oman Tests Its Rentier Contract
In June 2025, Oman took a step that no Gulf monarchy had attempted before: announcing plans for direct taxation starting in 2028. At 5 percent on earnings above 42,000 OMR (~$109,000)—roughly the top 1 percent of earners—the financial returns will be modest. The signal, however, is not. By introducing a narrowly targeted personal income tax… Continue reading Small Tax, Big Bargain: Oman Tests Its Rentier Contract
What the UAE Hopes To Gain from Israel’s Growing Isolation
When U.S. President Donald Trump visited the Gulf last month, complete with fanfare and choreographed spectacle, it reinforced a growing sense among Gulf states that the region is on a political ascent. The four-day tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates was Trump’s first major foreign trip in his second term—a deliberate… Continue reading What the UAE Hopes To Gain from Israel’s Growing Isolation
What the Iranian Attack on Qatar Means for the Future of Gulf Security
Iran’s ballistic missile attack on the Qatari airbase at Al Udeid was viewed by many international analysts and media strictly through the lens of the confrontation between the U.S., Israel and Iran. Widely seen as a symbolic move, the attack’s lack of casualties allowed U.S. President Donald Trump to pursue his preferred option of de-escalation… Continue reading What the Iranian Attack on Qatar Means for the Future of Gulf Security
For Gulf States, Setting Carbon Rules Is Key to Energy Sovereignty
As the global energy transition progresses, hydrocarbons are no longer judged solely by their cost or availability. Increasingly, they are judged by their carbon footprint throughout the entire value chain. This raises the question of who defines, measures and certifies that footprint. Indeed, carbon certification is emerging as a battleground that will set the parameters… Continue reading For Gulf States, Setting Carbon Rules Is Key to Energy Sovereignty
Trump’s Gulf Visit Marks a Recalibration of Ties
Donald Trump’s return to the Gulf in May, the first overseas trip of his second term as U.S. president, was no normal diplomatic visit. It was a strategic encounter shaped by mutual interests and shifting global dynamics. For Gulf leaders, the visit offered an opportunity to reposition themselves not just as regional actors in the… Continue reading Trump’s Gulf Visit Marks a Recalibration of Ties
Can the U.S. Keep Its Military Edge in Saudi Arabia?
During U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Washington and Riyadh inked a landmark $142 billion defense agreement, heralded by the White House as the largest of its kind in history. The agreement forms part of Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion investment pledge for the U.S. economy and represents a considerable deepening of Saudi-U.S… Continue reading Can the U.S. Keep Its Military Edge in Saudi Arabia?
Could Trump’s Attack on Academia Be a Boon for the Gulf?
Prior to Donald Trump’s historic trip to the Gulf seeking investments for the American economy, the U.S. president was busy taking a wrecking ball to his country’s universities and research institutions. The Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, was decimating everything from medical research to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and hundreds… Continue reading Could Trump’s Attack on Academia Be a Boon for the Gulf?
Can Qatar Thread the Needle Between LNG Expansion and Carbon Reduction?
Qatar is poised to nearly double its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity—from 77 million tons per year (mtpa) to an ambitious 142 mtpa—by 2030. In an era defined by climate anxiety and calls to cut fossil fuel use, this expansion may seem counterintuitive. However, ramping up LNG exports can help major coal-reliant economies cut… Continue reading Can Qatar Thread the Needle Between LNG Expansion and Carbon Reduction?
How Trump’s Government Cuts Will Affect U.S. Foreign Policy
Spurred on by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, the second Trump administration has embarked upon a campaign of massive disruption within the federal government that will have serious implications for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). One of the primary targets is the State Department.… Continue reading How Trump’s Government Cuts Will Affect U.S. Foreign Policy
Trumponomics, Tariffs and the Global Flight From the U.S.
The rise of “Trumponomics” has sharply heightened global trade tensions, economic uncertainty and market volatility. It is no overstatement to say that the U.S. administration’s erratic tariffs and policies risk the dissolution of the “rules-based order” established by the U.S. and the West after the second world war, severely eroding America’s global credibility and geopolitical… Continue reading Trumponomics, Tariffs and the Global Flight From the U.S.
U.S. Disengagement Spurs Turkish-European Defense Cooperation
As the United States’ long-standing commitment to European security erodes under the Trump administration, the bloc’s defense partnership with Türkiye hit a new milestone in March, when a consortium of Europe’s leading arms companies submitted a formal bid to sell Ankara 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets. The fighters have seen active service in the air forces… Continue reading U.S. Disengagement Spurs Turkish-European Defense Cooperation
As Europe Adjusts to Life Without U.S. Security Umbrella, Lessons for GCC Abound
The Trump administration’s decision in early 2025 to suspend military aid to Ukraine—resuming it only after Kyiv agreed to negotiate with Moscow in March—marks a turning point in transatlantic security. It has forced Europe to reassess its strategic posture amid a conflict that began with Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and escalated into a full-scale… Continue reading As Europe Adjusts to Life Without U.S. Security Umbrella, Lessons for GCC Abound
Trump is back. Should Gulf States accelerate decoupling from the U.S.?
Eight weeks into the second Trump presidency, the world’s governments—including those in the Gulf—are still trying to make sense of the chaos in Washington. Domestic politics aside, the new administration’s economic policies have sparked fears of a “Trumpcession” amid an escalating trade war and a falling dollar and stock market. Both consumer and business confidence… Continue reading Trump is back. Should Gulf States accelerate decoupling from the U.S.?
Abu Dhabi’s Quiet Engagement in Afghanistan May Ease Taliban Isolation
For nearly a decade, international diplomacy concerning Afghanistan was mainly mediated by Qatar. Yet since the Taliban rolled into Kabul in August 2021, leading figures from the movement have made a string of high-profile visits to another key Gulf powerbroker, the United Arab Emirates. Their warm reception by the Emirati authorities suggests that Abu Dhabi… Continue reading Abu Dhabi’s Quiet Engagement in Afghanistan May Ease Taliban Isolation
The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA
Since returning to office on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump has issued 67 executive orders, more than double any other president in American history. Given that some of those orders have serious implications for the Middle East and North Africa, Afkār has compiled views from Middle East Council on Global Affairs scholars to analyze some… Continue reading The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA
Could the Russia-Iran Comprehensive Partnership Treaty Challenge Gulf Security?
On January 17, the presidents of Iran and Russia met in Moscow to sign a 20-year “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty.” The agreement, which focuses primarily on enhancing trade and security cooperation, comes as each country indirectly confronts the United States in conflicts with Ukraine and Israel, and on the heels of the abrupt toppling of… Continue reading Could the Russia-Iran Comprehensive Partnership Treaty Challenge Gulf Security?
In Multipolar World, Japan and GCC Should Develop Strategic Ties
In December, the Gulf Cooperation Council and Japan concluded their first round of discussions on a free trade agreement (FTA). History suggests this was the start of a process that may take years, if not decades—reaching an FTA between the GCC and South Korea took 15 years, with many bumps along the way. Nevertheless, this… Continue reading In Multipolar World, Japan and GCC Should Develop Strategic Ties
Why Trump’s Presidency Could Mean Closer EU-GCC Ties
The arrival of Donald Trump for a second term in the White House raises critical questions for the Middle East. Trump took office just days after a ceasefire deal aimed at ending a catastrophic 15-month war between Israel and Hamas, which had come close to dragging the region into an all-out conflagration. Now the president… Continue reading Why Trump’s Presidency Could Mean Closer EU-GCC Ties
Will Europe’s Green Agenda Disrupt LNG Imports from Qatar?
The European Union’s ambitious climate goals have set it on a transformative path to sustainability, with policies like the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CS3D) leading the charge. But as these policies take effect, they risk unsettling the continent’s energy security. Qatar, one of Europe’s critical suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), has warned that… Continue reading Will Europe’s Green Agenda Disrupt LNG Imports from Qatar?
By Leveraging LNG, Qatar Can Fuel Fairness in Global Climate Policy
Imagine having a neighbor who spent decades accumulating massive debts to build a lavish mansion and enjoy a life of wealth and opulence. Now, when the debt collector arrives, the neighbor demands that everyone on the street—no matter how little they borrowed or their financial circumstances—share in the repayment burden. It is hard to imagine… Continue reading By Leveraging LNG, Qatar Can Fuel Fairness in Global Climate Policy
MENA Outlook for 2025
With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025
Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure
Editor’s Note The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure