With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025
Afkar Region: GCC
Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure
Editor’s Note The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure
The Saudi Anticorruption Drive Moves Beyond Frying a Few Big Fish
Seven years ago, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, commonly referred to as MBS, launched a massive anticorruption crackdown. The campaign, which went on until 2019, ended in hundreds of high-profile arrests on charges of money laundering, bribery and extortion, among other things. It is thought to have amassed over $100 billion in recovered… Continue reading The Saudi Anticorruption Drive Moves Beyond Frying a Few Big Fish
Widening Geopolitical Fault Lines Challenge Collective Action on Climate
The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) held in Azerbaijan this year wrapped up in tumultuous fashion, as representatives of “highly dissatisfied” poorer nations walked out in protest. While COP29 was ultimately salvaged with a deal to provide $300 billion in annual “loss and damage financing” to the world’s most vulnerable states, the unmistakable take-away… Continue reading Widening Geopolitical Fault Lines Challenge Collective Action on Climate
Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War
For many years, China has been expanding its influence to every corner of the globe. And while its strategic priorities remain anchored in the Western Pacific—where it faces great-power rivalry with the United States, myriad territorial disputes, tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the potential for military conflict over the Taiwan Strait—its steadily growing presence… Continue reading Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War
Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office reshaped U.S.-Gulf relations. His approach focused on cultivating personal bonds with leaders of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), signing massive arms deals, and for the most part not touching human rights issues. Gulf statesmen mostly welcomed this approach, which provided immediate defense assurances without challenging their sovereignty. However, with… Continue reading Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East
On November 6, within hours of closing the polls, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin. Trump’s remarkable triumph, which will return him to the White House after his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020, comes at a… Continue reading Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East
Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum
On October 21, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Manama and met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, marking a significant turning point in Iran-Bahrain relations that have been severed since 2016. This visit—the first by an Iranian foreign minister to Bahrain since 2010—took place amid an escalating military confrontation between Iran and Israel. While Bahrain… Continue reading Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum
Beyond BRICS Summit, UAE and Brazil Deepen Ties
The BRICS+ summit being held on October 22 and 23 in Russia marks the first with the United Arab Emirates as a full member. Since joining the bloc at the beginning of the year, the Gulf state has ramped up its cooperation with other members of the bloc, particularly Brazil. Already the Emirates’ largest trade… Continue reading Beyond BRICS Summit, UAE and Brazil Deepen Ties
The BRICS+ Summit and the Shifting Global Order
On October 22nd, Russia will host the BRICS+ annual summit—its ranks swelled by new members and ambitions. As this year’s chair, Russia presides over a bloc that now represents 45.5% of the world’s population—more than four times that of the G7—with a combined GDP of $28.5tn, and 25% of global exports. BRICS+ is poised to… Continue reading The BRICS+ Summit and the Shifting Global Order
Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions
The Saudi-Iranian renormalization agreement of March 2023 was a watershed in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. Yet while China received much of the credit for the reconciliation, which cooled the flames of one of the region’s most tense rivalries, the previous two years of heavy lifting had largely been the work of Iraq and the Sultanate… Continue reading Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions
A Region Under Fire
Editor’s Note: There Are No Winners Here Omar H. Rahman, Fellow and Editor of Afkār, Middle East Council on Global Affairs The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023. Decades of military occupation, colonial land theft and systemic deprivation had already pushed Palestinians into a state of constant struggle, laying the groundwork… Continue reading A Region Under Fire
Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views
On January 1, the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland and landlocked Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting the latter port access to the Red Sea. In exchange for a 50-year lease of coastline near the strategic port of Berbera for commercial and naval uses, Addis Ababa agreed to consider recognizing Somaliland as a… Continue reading Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views
Trump Redux Could Bring in the Law of Unintended Consequences
One hundred days ahead of elections in November, former U.S. president Donald Trump is polling strongly despite the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat candidate. What would the implications be for us in the Gulf and around the world of a Trump presidency redux? From public statements and his record in the… Continue reading Trump Redux Could Bring in the Law of Unintended Consequences
Gaza War Creates Dilemmas for Bahrain’s Leadership
Four years ago this month, Bahrain joined its ally the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in formalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. After signing the Abraham Accords at the White House on September 15, 2020, Bahrain and Israel opened embassies, signed numerous bilateral agreements, established business contacts and launched direct commercial travel. Yet Bahrain, like other Arab… Continue reading Gaza War Creates Dilemmas for Bahrain’s Leadership
Central Bank Digital Currencies’ Impact on MENA Economies – Council Views
Amid the growing prominence of decentralized finance, central banks are increasing their endeavors to maintain control over financial systems, including through central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Recent strides by MENA countries indicate the region’s growing interest in CBDCs. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia’s central bank joined a cross-border trial for CBDCs, Project mBridge, which already… Continue reading Central Bank Digital Currencies’ Impact on MENA Economies – Council Views
The Importance of Diplomacy: How Qatari Mediation is Impacting Gaza
The ongoing Gaza war has showcased Qatar’s strengths as a mediator. Although Doha may not appear to be a major international player at first glance, it has nonetheless proven to be an invaluable actor in the United States’ attempts to end the war. Despite its small size and population, Qatar plays an outsized role… Continue reading The Importance of Diplomacy: How Qatari Mediation is Impacting Gaza
Interview: Unpacking Kuwait’s Parliament Dissolution
Kuwait’s Emir Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who came to power late last year, recently nominated Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah as crown prince and appointed a new cabinet. This came after the leader’s decision to dissolve the country’s National Assembly and institute a four-year suspension of several constitutional articles following an election that saw minimal changes… Continue reading Interview: Unpacking Kuwait’s Parliament Dissolution
Economic Diversification is the GCC’s Top Priority
It is a paradoxical truth that nations highly dependent on natural resources tend to be poor economic performers. Such countries are exposed to ongoing adverse shocks, including price jolts, volatile demand and supply, and natural disasters. These factors can stir up macroeconomic instability and higher economic risks – otherwise known as the “natural resource curse”. … Continue reading Economic Diversification is the GCC’s Top Priority
Interview: Kuwait’s First Elections under the New Emir
1. Kuwait has faced political gridlock, resulting in four elections over the past four years and deteriorating social services. In this month’s parliamentary elections, the opposition maintained a 29-seat majority in the 50-member body, closely resembling the previous year’s outcome. What do these results indicate for Kuwait’s political landscape and potential reforms? Hope springs eternal,… Continue reading Interview: Kuwait’s First Elections under the New Emir
Washington’s Dilemma over Hamas in Qatar
“Tell Hamas that they must deliver on a hostage and ceasefire deal that would halt the war in Gaza or risk getting kicked out of the Qatari capital of Doha.” That was U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s message to Qatar in early March, according to a report by CNN five months into Israel’s war… Continue reading Washington’s Dilemma over Hamas in Qatar
Reforms in Kuwait: Can the new prime minister achieve them?
There is rumored to have once been a sign in Doha that read, “yesterday Kuwait, today Dubai; tomorrow Qatar.” Although perhaps apocryphal, it captures an important and painful truth for many Kuwaitis. Kuwait initially led the way in the Arabian Gulf and was the first country with its own currency and Constitution of the State… Continue reading Reforms in Kuwait: Can the new prime minister achieve them?
GCC can emerge as ‘Middle Powers’ in second Cold War
We are living in a second Cold War. A multipolar world is evolving as governments adopt policies that are leading to increased economic and financial fragmentation. Trade, foreign direct investment, and financial flows are increasingly encumbered by regulatory and legal restrictions. The number of global trade restrictions introduced each year has nearly tripled since… Continue reading GCC can emerge as ‘Middle Powers’ in second Cold War
Necessity Will Drive Gulf States to Cooperate on Climate Change
The impacts of climate change are becoming starkly visible in the Gulf. Already one of the driest, hottest parts of the world, the region is heating up at a rate twice as fast as the global average. Accordingly, Gulf governments are beginning to realize that ad hoc or unilateral strategies are not sufficient to tackle… Continue reading Necessity Will Drive Gulf States to Cooperate on Climate Change
Will COP28 Accelerate Climate Action in the Gulf and Beyond?
The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been pivotal to the global economy for decades, accounting for around 30 percent of confirmed petroleum reserves worldwide and 20 percent of total natural gas reserves. Yet as the effects of climate change intensify and global climate policies impact the bottom line for hydrocarbon exporters, those… Continue reading Will COP28 Accelerate Climate Action in the Gulf and Beyond?
Qatar’s Next Diplomatic Step in Latin America?
Qatar has garnered significant global attention for its role in negotiating the release of hostages held by Hamas after its attack on Israel on October 7. The Gulf state’s recent mediation efforts have also extended beyond the borders of its own region, particularly in Latin America where its economic and diplomatic channels are widening. On… Continue reading Qatar’s Next Diplomatic Step in Latin America?
Gulf Normalization Under Strain as Israel Pounds Gaza
Since an unprecedented conflict flared between Israel and Hamas on October 7, the Arab Gulf states have been working to de-escalate and prevent the crisis from sparking a catastrophic regional war dragging in Iranian allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed groups in Syria and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yet while the GCC states agree… Continue reading Gulf Normalization Under Strain as Israel Pounds Gaza
How Acting as Mediator Expands Qatar’s Geopolitical Reach
Qatar is increasingly flexing its diplomatic muscles. A high-profile prisoner exchange between the United States and Iran earlier this month is the latest in a string of painstaking agreements mediated by the Gulf state, and could lead to further diplomatic efforts as the countries try to jumpstart stalled nuclear talks. The prisoner swap was the… Continue reading How Acting as Mediator Expands Qatar’s Geopolitical Reach
Why Japan Should Welcome Saudi Arabia into the GCAP Fighter Jet Alliance
Saudi Arabia has been intensifying its diplomatic efforts to join the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a joint effort by Japan, the United Kingdom and Italy to build a next-generation combat jet. When Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Saudi Arabia in July, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman directly asked to join the alliance. But… Continue reading Why Japan Should Welcome Saudi Arabia into the GCAP Fighter Jet Alliance
Mediating Multipolarity: Qatar’s Role in U.S.-Venezuela Negotiations
In June, Qatar hosted secret talks between Venezuela and the United States. Doha has an extensive track record of assisting the United States in sensitive negotiations, including a recent prisoner swap with Iran and U.S.-Taliban backchanneling. Qatar’s emergence as a mediator in Venezuela has filled a void left by the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and other regional… Continue reading Mediating Multipolarity: Qatar’s Role in U.S.-Venezuela Negotiations
Erdogan’s Gulf Visit Heralds New Regional Approach
Weeks after winning a new five-year term as president of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar with a delegation that included nearly 200 business and government officials. The veteran leader’s first visit to the region since his electoral victory in May is the culmination of a rapid reconciliation… Continue reading Erdogan’s Gulf Visit Heralds New Regional Approach
Can Iran-Saudi Rapprochement overcome Tehran’s anti-Western worldview?
When Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Iran in June, many viewed the event as further evidence of rapidly warming relations between the two regional rivals, who resumed diplomatic ties in March after years of open hostility. The image of the Saudi prince alongside Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, conveyed the message that the… Continue reading Can Iran-Saudi Rapprochement overcome Tehran’s anti-Western worldview?
Saudi Arabia’s Great Transformation
An unprecedented experiment in economic and social transformation is playing out in Saudi Arabia, and the outcome could have profound implications for the entire Arab world. The main goal of the kingdom’s Vision 2030 plan is to shift the economy away from fossil fuels. It is a timely pivot, given that greenhouse-gas emissions must be… Continue reading Saudi Arabia’s Great Transformation
MENA States’ Assertive Approach in the Era of Emerging Multipolarity
As American dominance of the Middle East and North Africa wanes and other world powers step up their efforts to win friends and influence there, long-time U.S. allies are becoming more assertive towards Washington and recalibrating their other ties to better secure their own interests. The growing U.S.-China strategic rivalry will profoundly impact the region… Continue reading MENA States’ Assertive Approach in the Era of Emerging Multipolarity
How Does Iran View Syria’s Return to the Arab League?
In May 2023, Syria returned to the Arab League following a near-12-year suspension. The move has far-reaching implications for both the region and the international community. It came after more than a decade of widespread atrocities by Bashar Al-Assad’s regime against its own citizens, abuses that have cast a long shadow over Syria’s relationships with… Continue reading How Does Iran View Syria’s Return to the Arab League?
Will the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement change anything for the Palestinians?
Amid the zeitgeist of diplomatic rapprochement and normalization in the Middle East—which has recently seen Saudi Arabia and Iran mend ties and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad welcomed at this month’s Arab League summit—the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas took a step forward to repair its own regional relationships. In mid-April, a delegation of senior Hamas officials, led… Continue reading Will the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement change anything for the Palestinians?
Saudi Arabia and the UAE on Edge as Generals Battle It Out in Sudan
As Sudan’s two main armed forces battle for control of Khartoum, hopes for a truce may lie on the other side of the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has been holding talks in Jeddah reportedly focused on reaching a ceasefire and ensuring aid can reach those affected by the fighting, which has already killed hundreds of… Continue reading Saudi Arabia and the UAE on Edge as Generals Battle It Out in Sudan
Time to Tackle the Transparency Deficit in the MENA Region
It is widely known that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region suffers from a “democratic deficit.” What is less well-appreciated is that the region also suffers from a chronic deficit in transparency. The World Bank’s Vice President for MENA, Ferid Belhaj, recently called attention to this problem, stating that Egypt needs to get… Continue reading Time to Tackle the Transparency Deficit in the MENA Region
Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen
A diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has raised hopes that it could lead to a peace agreement in Yemen, where war has raged with the help of both parties for over eight years. Over the past week, Houthi officials have been holding peace talks in Sanaa with a delegation led by Saudi Ambassador… Continue reading Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen
The Saudi-Iranian Deal Is Important, but Don’t Expect a Wider Peace
The March 6 announcement that Saudi Arabia and Iran were re-establishing diplomatic ties was an important moment for the Middle East. The Chinese-brokered deal has the potential to end the devastating eight-year conflict in Yemen and address geopolitical tensions elsewhere. From the Saudi perspective, it may end Iranian proxy attacks on Saudi oil facilities, including… Continue reading The Saudi-Iranian Deal Is Important, but Don’t Expect a Wider Peace
Yemen Negotiations: Buying Time or Nearing Peace?
Reports of direct talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels have sparked hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough toward ending the country’s devastating eight-year war. Many observers have drawn optimism from renewed peace efforts and months of relative calm on the ground, which has outlasted a formal truce that expired in October. Yet there are… Continue reading Yemen Negotiations: Buying Time or Nearing Peace?
What Can the Next World Cup Hosts Learn from Qatar 2022?
As 2022 drew to a close, the sporting world relished in a riveting FIFA World Cup full of historical firsts. Going forward, policymakers have a chance to reflect on the lessons learned from the organization of that event, which was the first time it was held in the Middle East. With the United States, Mexico,… Continue reading What Can the Next World Cup Hosts Learn from Qatar 2022?
Can Iraq’s New PM Chart a Different Relationship with the Gulf?
Iraq’s new government is hoping that an influx of investment from its Gulf neighbors can breathe life into its economy and diversify its regional relationships after years of being so close to Iran. But such efforts are likely to face stiff opposition from Tehran and its proxies, who have expanded and consolidated their influence since… Continue reading Can Iraq’s New PM Chart a Different Relationship with the Gulf?
China’s Xi travels to Saudi Arabia as Asia-GCC relations reach new heights
The arrival of Chinese President Xi Jinping in Saudi Arabia marks an important moment in the historical relationship between the two countries and their respective regions. While the United States has recently been eager to drive a wedge between its partners in the Persian Gulf and its rival to the East, heads of state from… Continue reading China’s Xi travels to Saudi Arabia as Asia-GCC relations reach new heights
Council Views – Hosting the FIFA World Cup 2022: Impact on Qatar and the Region
On December 2, 2010, Qatar won the bid for hosting the 2022 Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup, becoming the first country in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to host this tournament. Ever since, the country has launched several mega projects, ramping up its infrastructure capacity, amid wide controversy about… Continue reading Council Views – Hosting the FIFA World Cup 2022: Impact on Qatar and the Region