With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025
Afkar Issue: MENA Governance
With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?
Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?
Whither the New Syria?
As history was made in Syria over the past month, seismic shocks have reverberated across the region. To start, the world witnessed the final convulsion of the World War I-era Sykes-Picot Agreement, which one historian called, with due irony, “a peace to end all peace.” Perhaps more ironic still, the signatories of that bygone treaty,… Continue reading Whither the New Syria?
Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse
In early December, the Palestinian banking sector narrowly avoided financial freefall, as Israel’s far-right finance minister toyed with removing a crucial safeguard underpinning the correspondent relationship between Palestinian and Israeli banks. These safeguards protect the Israeli side from domestic and international legal risks arising from transactions with their Palestinian counterparts, offering immunity and indemnity if… Continue reading A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse
Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins
On December 8, the world awoke to stunning news. Overnight, rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had taken Damascus, facing little resistance as they entered the Syrian capital. Most of the state’s security agents and armed forces simply abandoned their positions and walked away. In an instant, the Assad regime’s fifty-four-year brutal rule… Continue reading Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins
The Saudi Anticorruption Drive Moves Beyond Frying a Few Big Fish
Seven years ago, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, commonly referred to as MBS, launched a massive anticorruption crackdown. The campaign, which went on until 2019, ended in hundreds of high-profile arrests on charges of money laundering, bribery and extortion, among other things. It is thought to have amassed over $100 billion in recovered… Continue reading The Saudi Anticorruption Drive Moves Beyond Frying a Few Big Fish
Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis
For more than a year, Palestinians have faced a systematic and relentless assault on their homeland, amounting to the most profound crisis since the Nakba of 1948. Following the events of October 7, 2023, Israel has embarked on a genocidal campaign against the population of the Gaza Strip and stepped up its repression in the… Continue reading Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis
Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis
A major humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Lebanon. Israel’s attacks have exacted a heavy toll with over 2,000 people killed and 9,000 wounded. The last two weeks have wreaked severe damage on core infrastructure, public utilities, water, sanitation, power and roads. The country’s health system has also been degraded. Much of Beirut’s Dahiyeh and South Lebanon stands… Continue reading Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis
What Algeria’s Upcoming Elections Mean for the Next Five Years
On September 7, Algerians will head to the polls to elect their president. The outcome, however, is already a foregone conclusion. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, running for his second term, is certain to win. Tebboune’s continued rule is assured because the military, the true power brokers in Algeria, have deemed him a suitable figurehead. His initial… Continue reading What Algeria’s Upcoming Elections Mean for the Next Five Years
Libya’s Central Bank Crisis Reflects Its Broken System
Libya’s latest political standoff, this time over who should head the country’s central bank, has once again highlighted the chronic dysfunction that has plagued the country since the 2011 overthrow of Moammar Gaddafi. Libya’s political economy, militarized and bedeviled by foreign interference, is broken: unsuitable even for Libya’s rival leaders, incapable of constraining them, and… Continue reading Libya’s Central Bank Crisis Reflects Its Broken System
Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?
![Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in south Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 19, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by RABIH DAHER / AFP) / The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by RABIH DAHER has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [June 19] instead of [June 8]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require.](https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/AFP__20240619__34XG8W8__v9__HighRes__CorrectionTopshotLebanonIsraelPalestinianConfli-1568x1045.jpg)
In a speech a week after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, the Lebanese movement’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah remarked that “the resistance is not interested in using any victory over Israel for domestic political purposes.” Ten months into Israel’s war of annihilation against the Gaza Strip and its campaign of killings in the… Continue reading Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?
How Tunisia’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Putting Its Next Election into Question
On August 5, a Tunisian court sentenced four potential presidential candidates on charges of buying endorsements and banned them from running in the upcoming elections slated for October 6. Among the four were the prominent politician and former Ennahda leader Abdellatif Mekki and the activist and TV host Nizar Chaari. In addition, the key opposition… Continue reading How Tunisia’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Putting Its Next Election into Question
Unification of Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector in Yemen
Amid the ongoing state of “no-war, no-peace” that has persisted for the past two years, Yemen faces a new challenge that threatens to further unsettle its fragile stability. The country’s banking sector is experiencing turmoil following a series of controversial decisions made by the breakaway Central Bank in Aden, signaling potentially catastrophic consequences for an… Continue reading Unification of Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector in Yemen
The Coup Contagion Continues
The first attempted military coup of 2024 took place in Bolivia on June 26, when soldiers stormed the presidential palace and occupied the main square in La Paz. While Bolivia is no stranger to putsches, with the highest number of coups worldwide since 1950, it is now the latest in a long list of countries… Continue reading The Coup Contagion Continues
The Unlikely Election of Another Reformist in Iran
Until just a month ago, few people outside of Iran had heard the name Masoud Pezeshkian. The 69-year-old physician was the representative for the northwestern city of Tabriz in the Iranian parliament and had previously served as the minister of health in the second administration of the reformist President Mohammad Khatami between 2001 to 2005.… Continue reading The Unlikely Election of Another Reformist in Iran
Central Bank Digital Currencies’ Impact on MENA Economies – Council Views
Amid the growing prominence of decentralized finance, central banks are increasing their endeavors to maintain control over financial systems, including through central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Recent strides by MENA countries indicate the region’s growing interest in CBDCs. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia’s central bank joined a cross-border trial for CBDCs, Project mBridge, which already… Continue reading Central Bank Digital Currencies’ Impact on MENA Economies – Council Views
To Strengthen the Palestinian Authority, Stabilize Its Finances
As Israel carries out the latest stage of its devastating military assault on Gaza in the southern city of Rafah, pressure has mounted on its relationship with the United States. Yet it is in the West Bank where the Biden administration’s stalwart support for Israel’s right-wing government may face its most difficult test. A recent… Continue reading To Strengthen the Palestinian Authority, Stabilize Its Finances
Iran’s Snap Election Casts a Long Shadow Over the State
As Iran heads to a snap election for a new president, questions over the government’s political legitimacy are once again surfacing. After the shock death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, along with the foreign minister and a number of other officials, a new election to find his replacement was… Continue reading Iran’s Snap Election Casts a Long Shadow Over the State
EU Aid for Syrian Refugees: Addressing Ongoing Needs in Türkiye and Lebanon
In late May of this year, the European Union and other international donors pledged €7.5 billion ($8 billion) in grants and loans to support millions of Syrians displaced within and beyond the country’s borders by a devastating 13-year civil war. The seemingly vast sum pledged at the Brussels conference on “Supporting the future of Syria… Continue reading EU Aid for Syrian Refugees: Addressing Ongoing Needs in Türkiye and Lebanon
A Succession of Coups Leaves the Sahel Prey to International Rivalries
When Niger’s military rulers decided to put an end to the presence of American armed forces on the country’s territory in May, the move was met with dismay in Washington. Niger, in the heart of the Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert, is host to two major bases the United States had long used… Continue reading A Succession of Coups Leaves the Sahel Prey to International Rivalries
The (Surprising) Silence of Arab Universities on Palestine
Since mid-April 2024, western academic institutions, including elite American universities, have been at the forefront of protests for Palestine. Yet, their Arab counterparts have surprisingly remained silent. The disengagement is particularly noteworthy considering that Middle Eastern universities have historically been the hotbeds of protests and engagement concerning the Palestinian cause. This absence is also at… Continue reading The (Surprising) Silence of Arab Universities on Palestine
Interview: Unpacking Kuwait’s Parliament Dissolution
Kuwait’s Emir Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who came to power late last year, recently nominated Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah as crown prince and appointed a new cabinet. This came after the leader’s decision to dissolve the country’s National Assembly and institute a four-year suspension of several constitutional articles following an election that saw minimal changes… Continue reading Interview: Unpacking Kuwait’s Parliament Dissolution
The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
We at Afkār are delighted to announce that we have reached a new milestone, our 100th post! To mark the occasion, we have recorded and transcribed a special interview with the Director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Tarik M. Yousef. The in-depth interview was conducted by our editor, Omar H. Rahman, and… Continue reading The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
Economic Diversification is the GCC’s Top Priority
It is a paradoxical truth that nations highly dependent on natural resources tend to be poor economic performers. Such countries are exposed to ongoing adverse shocks, including price jolts, volatile demand and supply, and natural disasters. These factors can stir up macroeconomic instability and higher economic risks – otherwise known as the “natural resource curse”. … Continue reading Economic Diversification is the GCC’s Top Priority
Security Sector Reform: An Exercise in Futility?
Since the onset of the post-October 7 regional escalation, the ascension of militia groups has had increasingly visible implications for global security. This has been highlighted by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which have had far-reaching consequences for the global economy. However, the Houthis—an armed political movement controlling most of Yemen—represent only one… Continue reading Security Sector Reform: An Exercise in Futility?
Winning the Peace in the Middle East’s Fragile State
The military escalation since the start of the war in Gaza on October 7 highlights the vulnerability of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to a relapse of conflict, potentially in a conflagration that could engulf the region at large. Over years of devastating intra-state conflicts and proxy wars in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and… Continue reading Winning the Peace in the Middle East’s Fragile State
Regional Diplomacy Amid the War in Gaza
Over the past four months, Middle Eastern nations have been dismayed by the near-unconditional support from Western governments to Israel as it has bombarded and besieged the Gaza Strip and is now ramping up an assault on Rafah—a sliver of territory where more than a million displaced civilians have gathered. As a result, some have… Continue reading Regional Diplomacy Amid the War in Gaza
Reforms in Kuwait: Can the new prime minister achieve them?
There is rumored to have once been a sign in Doha that read, “yesterday Kuwait, today Dubai; tomorrow Qatar.” Although perhaps apocryphal, it captures an important and painful truth for many Kuwaitis. Kuwait initially led the way in the Arabian Gulf and was the first country with its own currency and Constitution of the State… Continue reading Reforms in Kuwait: Can the new prime minister achieve them?
Necessity Will Drive Gulf States to Cooperate on Climate Change
The impacts of climate change are becoming starkly visible in the Gulf. Already one of the driest, hottest parts of the world, the region is heating up at a rate twice as fast as the global average. Accordingly, Gulf governments are beginning to realize that ad hoc or unilateral strategies are not sufficient to tackle… Continue reading Necessity Will Drive Gulf States to Cooperate on Climate Change
“Global Boiling” is a Grim Reality: MENA Governments Must do More to Prepare
For residents of sweltering parts of the Middle East and North Africa, it will come as little surprise that 2023 could be the hottest year on Earth since records began. July has already set a grim landmark as the hottest month on record, prompting United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres to remark that “the era of… Continue reading “Global Boiling” is a Grim Reality: MENA Governments Must do More to Prepare
Will COP28 Accelerate Climate Action in the Gulf and Beyond?
The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been pivotal to the global economy for decades, accounting for around 30 percent of confirmed petroleum reserves worldwide and 20 percent of total natural gas reserves. Yet as the effects of climate change intensify and global climate policies impact the bottom line for hydrocarbon exporters, those… Continue reading Will COP28 Accelerate Climate Action in the Gulf and Beyond?
Palestinians Continue to be Haunted by the Ghosts of Oslo
A decade after the initial Oslo Accord was signed in 1993, public opinion on the process it spawned was divided between those who believed it was a promising initiative to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace that was tragically derailed, and those who insisted that it lacked the rudimentary elements of a meaningful peace process. Today, those who… Continue reading Palestinians Continue to be Haunted by the Ghosts of Oslo
A Military Intervention in Niger Would Deepen the Sahel’s Woes
July’s military coup against Niger’s pro-western President Mohamed Bazoum has sparked a complex crisis with momentous consequences for the entire region. The latest in a string of military power-grabs across the Sahel, it has drawn a particularly sharp reaction from former colonial power France, which has forces stationed in the country—ostensibly to fight Islamist militants—and… Continue reading A Military Intervention in Niger Would Deepen the Sahel’s Woes
Syria Is Back, But Normalization Has Its Limits
The visit of Iraq’s prime minister to Damascus in July was the latest sign that Syria is mending ties with its neighbourhood, more than a decade after the Arab League suspended its membership over its brutal repression of anti-government protests. As the country’s catastrophic civil war settles, the regime of Bashar al-Assad can chalk up… Continue reading Syria Is Back, But Normalization Has Its Limits
Libyan Effort to Clean Up State Finances Sidesteps Deeper Issues
As political tensions in Libya simmer amid fresh uncertainty over elections, the Libyan Presidency Council recently moved to address another issue at the heart of the country’s divisions. Only July 6, the Tripoli-based body announced it was establishing a High Financial Oversight Committee, with sweeping responsibilities to oversee Libya’s vital oil revenues, scrutinize government budgets… Continue reading Libyan Effort to Clean Up State Finances Sidesteps Deeper Issues
Will Yemen’s New Hadramout Council Lead to Federalism or More Fragmentation?
The creation of a new governing council for Yemen’s largest province could mark a key moment in the country’s nine-year civil war. The Hadhramout National Council (HNC) was unveiled in late June after meetings between influential actors from across the vast eastern province, as well as Western ambassadors, under Saudi auspices. The council, set to… Continue reading Will Yemen’s New Hadramout Council Lead to Federalism or More Fragmentation?
MENA States’ Assertive Approach in the Era of Emerging Multipolarity
As American dominance of the Middle East and North Africa wanes and other world powers step up their efforts to win friends and influence there, long-time U.S. allies are becoming more assertive towards Washington and recalibrating their other ties to better secure their own interests. The growing U.S.-China strategic rivalry will profoundly impact the region… Continue reading MENA States’ Assertive Approach in the Era of Emerging Multipolarity
Interview: What Lies Ahead for Türkiye After the Elections?
1. What accounts for the election results, both in terms of Erdogan’s performance and the opposition alliance’s defeat? What will happen to the alliance now? The election results illustrate that President Erdogan’s campaign narratives of maintaining continuity in tumultuous times, his quest to make Türkiye a powerhouse in international affairs, and the fight against terrorism,… Continue reading Interview: What Lies Ahead for Türkiye After the Elections?
How Does Iran View Syria’s Return to the Arab League?
In May 2023, Syria returned to the Arab League following a near-12-year suspension. The move has far-reaching implications for both the region and the international community. It came after more than a decade of widespread atrocities by Bashar Al-Assad’s regime against its own citizens, abuses that have cast a long shadow over Syria’s relationships with… Continue reading How Does Iran View Syria’s Return to the Arab League?
Will the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement change anything for the Palestinians?
Amid the zeitgeist of diplomatic rapprochement and normalization in the Middle East—which has recently seen Saudi Arabia and Iran mend ties and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad welcomed at this month’s Arab League summit—the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas took a step forward to repair its own regional relationships. In mid-April, a delegation of senior Hamas officials, led… Continue reading Will the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement change anything for the Palestinians?
Will Türkiye’s Elections Produce a Change in Leadership and Regional Posture?
On May 14, Türkiye will hold its most consequential elections in decades, with implications that extend well beyond its borders. For 21 years, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has dominated the country’s politics, reshaping its identity and outlook at home and abroad, while becoming the most recognizable Turkish politician on the global stage in nearly a century.… Continue reading Will Türkiye’s Elections Produce a Change in Leadership and Regional Posture?
Time to Tackle the Transparency Deficit in the MENA Region
It is widely known that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region suffers from a “democratic deficit.” What is less well-appreciated is that the region also suffers from a chronic deficit in transparency. The World Bank’s Vice President for MENA, Ferid Belhaj, recently called attention to this problem, stating that Egypt needs to get… Continue reading Time to Tackle the Transparency Deficit in the MENA Region
Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen
A diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has raised hopes that it could lead to a peace agreement in Yemen, where war has raged with the help of both parties for over eight years. Over the past week, Houthi officials have been holding peace talks in Sanaa with a delegation led by Saudi Ambassador… Continue reading Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen
The Saudi-Iranian Deal Is Important, but Don’t Expect a Wider Peace
The March 6 announcement that Saudi Arabia and Iran were re-establishing diplomatic ties was an important moment for the Middle East. The Chinese-brokered deal has the potential to end the devastating eight-year conflict in Yemen and address geopolitical tensions elsewhere. From the Saudi perspective, it may end Iranian proxy attacks on Saudi oil facilities, including… Continue reading The Saudi-Iranian Deal Is Important, but Don’t Expect a Wider Peace
Rising Anti-Refugee Sentiment in Türkiye Unshaken by Earthquakes
The earthquakes that struck Türkiye and Syria in February devastated large areas of both countries, killing over 50,000 people and forcing millions from their homes. It was Türkiye’s worst natural disaster in decades. For Syrian refugees living in the area, it was a double catastrophe. Already forced from their country by war, they now found… Continue reading Rising Anti-Refugee Sentiment in Türkiye Unshaken by Earthquakes
Egypt’s Economic Crisis Heightens Need for Reforms
Egyptians are facing a dire economic situation. Since early 2022, the Egyptian pound has lost more than 40 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar and prices of imported goods have soared, as the impact of the war in Ukraine compounds the effects of stringent bailout conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).… Continue reading Egypt’s Economic Crisis Heightens Need for Reforms
A Change in Iraqi Leadership Is Giving Militias a New Lease on Life
The appointment of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani in October has breathed new life into the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). A militia network formed in 2014 to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the PMF soon morphed into a political force to be reckoned with, making a strong showing in 2018… Continue reading A Change in Iraqi Leadership Is Giving Militias a New Lease on Life
Elections Without Democracy Expose Tunisia’s Political Decline
Just a few years ago, Tunisia was a beacon of political renewal in the Arab world, having both sparked the 2011 Arab Spring revolutions and emerged from them with the region’s only dictatorship-turned-democracy. Yet today, Tunisia is straining under the weight of a broken political system, a beleaguered economy and a disaffected public, including thousands… Continue reading Elections Without Democracy Expose Tunisia’s Political Decline
MENA Outlook 2023 – Council Views
In various ways, 2022 was arguably a positive year in much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The COVID-19 pandemic subsided in many states and the intensity of violence ebbed in several conflict zones. Competition between regional powers receded and gave way to an increase in diplomacy and rapprochement. However, with a… Continue reading MENA Outlook 2023 – Council Views