In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched a large-scale aerial offensive against multiple military and nuclear-related targets inside Iran. Dubbed “Operation Rising Lion,” the strikes targeted senior military commanders, nuclear scientists, air defense infrastructure and suspected ballistic missile facilities. Israel has framed the campaign as a necessary measure to halt Iran’s advancing nuclear… Continue reading Israel Applies Its Lebanon Playbook to Iran in Opening Salvo
Afkar Issue: Israel War on Gaza
Israel’s Admission of Genocide
Since October 7, 2023, Israeli cabinet ministers, political figures, military officers and media pundits have openly and endlessly incited for the destruction of Gaza and its Palestinian inhabitants. Already by December 2023, South Africa had compiled an extensive record of these statements for its submission to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) alleging that Israel… Continue reading Israel’s Admission of Genocide
The First 100 Days: Trump’s Middle East Policy Revisited
By any standard of the American presidency, the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term have been eventful, to say the least. From the dismantling of government institutions to the imposition of protectionist trade policies to the launching of negotiations with Iran and Russia, the implications of Trump’s early agenda have been far reaching… Continue reading The First 100 Days: Trump’s Middle East Policy Revisited
The Arab Plan for Gaza Has Two Problems: Israel and the PA
Egypt’s proposal for the reconstruction and administration of Gaza has emerged as an urgent intervention in the crisis that has unfolded since October 7, 2023. Backed by the Arab states, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and several European nations, the plan is not merely a humanitarian initiative—it is a geopolitical maneuver meant to counter the… Continue reading The Arab Plan for Gaza Has Two Problems: Israel and the PA
As Trump Imposes Tariffs, What Will U.S. Protectionism Mean for MENA and the Global Economy?
The United States has long been the world’s leading advocate for free trade, promoting it as a means of expanding global commerce and specialization in production that links economies into diversified supply chains. This has led to an unprecedented period of economic growth and poverty alleviation, a period anchored largely in an international rules-based order… Continue reading As Trump Imposes Tariffs, What Will U.S. Protectionism Mean for MENA and the Global Economy?
In Post-Genocide Gaza, Women Will Rise from the Rubble
On September 19, 2023, weeks before October 7 and the onset of the genocidal war that has consumed Gaza, 80 Palestinian women gathered in the blockaded territory to discuss the future. They were empowered leaders, successful entrepreneurs, professional businesswomen, committed academics and innovative engineers and scientists—all united under the umbrella of the Business and Professional… Continue reading In Post-Genocide Gaza, Women Will Rise from the Rubble
The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA
Since returning to office on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump has issued 67 executive orders, more than double any other president in American history. Given that some of those orders have serious implications for the Middle East and North Africa, Afkār has compiled views from Middle East Council on Global Affairs scholars to analyze some… Continue reading The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA
Why Trump’s Presidency Could Mean Closer EU-GCC Ties
The arrival of Donald Trump for a second term in the White House raises critical questions for the Middle East. Trump took office just days after a ceasefire deal aimed at ending a catastrophic 15-month war between Israel and Hamas, which had come close to dragging the region into an all-out conflagration. Now the president… Continue reading Why Trump’s Presidency Could Mean Closer EU-GCC Ties
TikTok Is Back, but for Whom?
U.S. users briefly lost access to popular social media platform TikTok earlier this week, following a legislative push to force the app’s Chinese-owned parent company to divest from its U.S. operations. While Donald Trump had endorsed the effort to ban the app during his first term, he recently reversed his stance, signing an executive order… Continue reading TikTok Is Back, but for Whom?
Will U.S. Sustain Pressure on Israel to Implement the Ceasefire Deal?
President-elect Donald Trump appears to have followed through with his promise to achieve a Gaza ceasefire before his inauguration on January 20. The incoming administration succeeded where the Biden administration failed, showing that U.S. pressure on Israel can lead to results. While many dismissed Trump’s threat that “all hell will break out” if the hostages… Continue reading Will U.S. Sustain Pressure on Israel to Implement the Ceasefire Deal?
MENA Outlook for 2025
With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025
With Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will Iranian People Respond?
Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will Iranian People Respond?
Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse
In early December, the Palestinian banking sector narrowly avoided financial freefall, as Israel’s far-right finance minister toyed with removing a crucial safeguard underpinning the correspondent relationship between Palestinian and Israeli banks. These safeguards protect the Israeli side from domestic and international legal risks arising from transactions with their Palestinian counterparts, offering immunity and indemnity if… Continue reading A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse
Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die
The lightening quick takeover of Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led-fighters in an offensive that began on November 27 and ousted the 54-year old Assad regime by December 8, has been stunning. Indeed, the speed of developments has left many observers with more questions than answers, including on the character of the rebel forces,… Continue reading Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die
Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure
Editor’s Note The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure
Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?
After more than a year of hostilities that intensified dramatically in recent months, Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, but the fragile agreement has already been tested by reported violations. In this interview with Afkār, Saoud El Mawla, visiting senior fellow at the ME Council, examines the deal’s significance and durability, as well… Continue reading Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?
Trump Must Focus on Rebuilding a War-Torn Middle East
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has become the first Republican candidate in 20 years to win the popular vote. His historic win hands him control of the Senate, Congress and the Republican party, along with a strongly conservative-leaning Supreme Court. How will this power be deployed? If we take Trump’s election rhetoric literally, his “Maganomics” agenda will be… Continue reading Trump Must Focus on Rebuilding a War-Torn Middle East
Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis
For more than a year, Palestinians have faced a systematic and relentless assault on their homeland, amounting to the most profound crisis since the Nakba of 1948. Following the events of October 7, 2023, Israel has embarked on a genocidal campaign against the population of the Gaza Strip and stepped up its repression in the… Continue reading Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis
Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office reshaped U.S.-Gulf relations. His approach focused on cultivating personal bonds with leaders of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), signing massive arms deals, and for the most part not touching human rights issues. Gulf statesmen mostly welcomed this approach, which provided immediate defense assurances without challenging their sovereignty. However, with… Continue reading Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East
On November 6, within hours of closing the polls, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin. Trump’s remarkable triumph, which will return him to the White House after his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020, comes at a… Continue reading Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East
How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?
On October 26, Israel carried out a long-anticipated strike against Iran, which came in retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage on Israel earlier this month—itself a response to a series of Israeli assassinations of Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas leaders since July. The latest exchange, however, marks a significant escalation in the confrontation between the two… Continue reading How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?
A Region Under Fire
Editor’s Note: There Are No Winners Here Omar H. Rahman, Fellow and Editor of Afkār, Middle East Council on Global Affairs The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023. Decades of military occupation, colonial land theft and systemic deprivation had already pushed Palestinians into a state of constant struggle, laying the groundwork… Continue reading A Region Under Fire
Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?
In the aftermath of Israel’s successful assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and as Israel begins its ground incursion in parts of southern Lebanon, two interrelated issues emerge. First, the status of Hezbollah and its future role in Lebanon and the region come into question. While Nasrallah’s assassination dealt a significant blow to the… Continue reading Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?
Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah
On September 28, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah following a massive Israeli airstrike in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. The assassination of Nasrallah follows a series of escalatory measures that includes the disruption of Hezbollah’s communication network through an explosive pager operation, the assassinations of other senior leaders in the… Continue reading Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah
Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”
In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its attacks in Lebanon, dealing a critical blow to much of Hezbollah’s top military leadership, including the late Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In this interview with Afkār, Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert and security analyst, offers his insights on Tehran’s strategic calculus at this watershed moment, including on… Continue reading Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”
Interview: Türkiye Engages the Arab League
At the most recent meeting of the League of Arab States (LAS) in Cairo, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was in attendance, marking the first time Türkiye has been represented at the summit in 13 years. In his address, Fidan offered pointed remarks on the war on Gaza and the need for unity among Arab… Continue reading Interview: Türkiye Engages the Arab League
Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?
On September 23, Israel began a major military offensive against Lebanon that left around 500 people dead, mainly civilians, and caused mass panic across the south of the country. This followed days of strikes against Hezbollah commanders and a surprise attack on Hezbollah personnel by triggering the explosion of thousands of low-tech communications devices like… Continue reading Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?
As Mainstream Media Fails Gaza, Social Media Fights to Tell the Real Story
The war on Gaza which erupted in October has captured global attention due to the significant humanitarian cost, extensive infrastructure damage, and high casualty figures. According to UNICEF, tens of thousands of people have been killed in the past 10 months, including more than 14,000 children. Many more have been seriously injured or remain missing under… Continue reading As Mainstream Media Fails Gaza, Social Media Fights to Tell the Real Story
Gaza War Creates Dilemmas for Bahrain’s Leadership
Four years ago this month, Bahrain joined its ally the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in formalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. After signing the Abraham Accords at the White House on September 15, 2020, Bahrain and Israel opened embassies, signed numerous bilateral agreements, established business contacts and launched direct commercial travel. Yet Bahrain, like other Arab… Continue reading Gaza War Creates Dilemmas for Bahrain’s Leadership
How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War
For weeks, the Middle East has been on edge as Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah prepare to retaliate against Israel for assassinating two high-level figures in their respective capitals, Tehran and Beirut. Frantic diplomacy and renewed momentum around Gaza ceasefire negotiations initially delayed the response, which has the potential to push the region over the brink… Continue reading How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War
Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?
![Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in south Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 19, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by RABIH DAHER / AFP) / The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by RABIH DAHER has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [June 19] instead of [June 8]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require.](https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/AFP__20240619__34XG8W8__v9__HighRes__CorrectionTopshotLebanonIsraelPalestinianConfli-1568x1045.jpg)
In a speech a week after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, the Lebanese movement’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah remarked that “the resistance is not interested in using any victory over Israel for domestic political purposes.” Ten months into Israel’s war of annihilation against the Gaza Strip and its campaign of killings in the… Continue reading Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?
Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation
Despite renewed international mediation efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah insists that it will respond forcefully to Israel’s assassination of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in the movement’s stronghold in southern Beirut. Since Shukr’s killing, and that of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, outside actors have stepped up efforts to… Continue reading Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation
Torture Camp Protests Expose Depth of Palestinian Dehumanization in Israel
On the morning of Monday, July 29, a contingent of Israel’s military police—the agency responsible for policing the security forces—arrived at Sde Teiman, an Israeli military base in the Negev Desert that now serves as a detention center for Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. The military police had come to arrest nine military reservists who… Continue reading Torture Camp Protests Expose Depth of Palestinian Dehumanization in Israel
Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar
On August 6, Hamas announced that its Shura Council had appointed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the movement in Gaza, as the new head of the group’s politburo. The decision came a week after Israel assassinated Hamas’ previous political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. In this interview, Beverley Milton-Edwards, co-author of Hamas: The Quest for… Continue reading Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar
Biden vs Harris on the Middle East: Same dance, different steps
The 2024 US election year has been one of the most tumultuous on record. The past two months have seen a shockingly lacklustre performance from President Joe Biden on the debate stage and his subsequent withdrawal from the ticket, an assassination attempt on former President and current Republican nominee Donald Trump, and the elevation of Vice President… Continue reading Biden vs Harris on the Middle East: Same dance, different steps
Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance
The ongoing Israeli war on Gaza is seen by the Jordanian government and public as an existential threat. Despite credible accusations of genocide, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prolonging, expanding, and escalating the offensive, which has led to mounting pressure on neighboring Jordan. From the potential forced displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank… Continue reading Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance
How Big a Role Will Gaza Play in the U.S. Election?
One of the great ironies of American politics is that despite the country’s immense power and influence in the world, U.S. foreign policy and international affairs hardly factor into the calculus of most American voters. The 2024 presidential race may be different, however. Since October 7, 2023, the Hamas-led attack on Israel, and Israel’s catastrophic… Continue reading How Big a Role Will Gaza Play in the U.S. Election?
Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views
On July 31, Hamas’ politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran shortly after attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. Just hours before, an Israeli drone strike killed one of the founders of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a southern suburb of Beirut. The dual assassinations occurred during an escalation in the fighting between… Continue reading Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views
Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region?
On July 31, Hamas’ top political leader, Ismael Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran while attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. The assassination came hours after Israel launched a drone strike in Beirut, killing the high-ranking Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr and others. The pair of assassinations come amid mounting regional tensions as Israel’s… Continue reading Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region?
ICJ Ruling Gives Palestinians Needed Hope and a Path Forward
In an historic ruling, the world’s highest court has deemed Israel’s 57-year-old military occupation of Palestinian territory unlawful and ordered it to end its presence there, including all its settlements and settlers, “as rapidly as possible.” The nine-point decision from the International Court of Justice at The Hague also obliged Israel to pay reparations to… Continue reading ICJ Ruling Gives Palestinians Needed Hope and a Path Forward
The Unlikely Election of Another Reformist in Iran
Until just a month ago, few people outside of Iran had heard the name Masoud Pezeshkian. The 69-year-old physician was the representative for the northwestern city of Tabriz in the Iranian parliament and had previously served as the minister of health in the second administration of the reformist President Mohammad Khatami between 2001 to 2005.… Continue reading The Unlikely Election of Another Reformist in Iran
To Strengthen the Palestinian Authority, Stabilize Its Finances
As Israel carries out the latest stage of its devastating military assault on Gaza in the southern city of Rafah, pressure has mounted on its relationship with the United States. Yet it is in the West Bank where the Biden administration’s stalwart support for Israel’s right-wing government may face its most difficult test. A recent… Continue reading To Strengthen the Palestinian Authority, Stabilize Its Finances
The Importance of Diplomacy: How Qatari Mediation is Impacting Gaza
The ongoing Gaza war has showcased Qatar’s strengths as a mediator. Although Doha may not appear to be a major international player at first glance, it has nonetheless proven to be an invaluable actor in the United States’ attempts to end the war. Despite its small size and population, Qatar plays an outsized role… Continue reading The Importance of Diplomacy: How Qatari Mediation is Impacting Gaza
The (Surprising) Silence of Arab Universities on Palestine
Since mid-April 2024, western academic institutions, including elite American universities, have been at the forefront of protests for Palestine. Yet, their Arab counterparts have surprisingly remained silent. The disengagement is particularly noteworthy considering that Middle Eastern universities have historically been the hotbeds of protests and engagement concerning the Palestinian cause. This absence is also at… Continue reading The (Surprising) Silence of Arab Universities on Palestine
The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
We at Afkār are delighted to announce that we have reached a new milestone, our 100th post! To mark the occasion, we have recorded and transcribed a special interview with the Director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Tarik M. Yousef. The in-depth interview was conducted by our editor, Omar H. Rahman, and… Continue reading The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
What Does President Raisi’s Death Mean for the Islamic Republic?
On May 19, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, accompanied by his Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, was tragically killed in a helicopter crash. The helicopter was en route to an event in the mountainous East Azerbaijan province when it encountered severe weather conditions, leading initially to what was described as “a hard landing.” Despite prompt rescue efforts,… Continue reading What Does President Raisi’s Death Mean for the Islamic Republic?
What Next for the War Between Iran and Israel?
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s direct attack against Israel was the first of its kind since the country’s clerical rulers seized power in 1979. In a major show of force, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles from its own territory—an unprecedented break with its past approach. Israel and its allies, including the United… Continue reading What Next for the War Between Iran and Israel?
Security Sector Reform: An Exercise in Futility?
Since the onset of the post-October 7 regional escalation, the ascension of militia groups has had increasingly visible implications for global security. This has been highlighted by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which have had far-reaching consequences for the global economy. However, the Houthis—an armed political movement controlling most of Yemen—represent only one… Continue reading Security Sector Reform: An Exercise in Futility?
Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views
On April 13, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time in its history, retaliating for Israel’s killing of three top Iranian commanders in Damascus on April 1. Israel has since responded with a limited strike, and the United States and its allies imposed expanded sanctions on Iran. Middle East Council scholars examine the implications… Continue reading Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views