In the early hours of July 7, an anti-ship missile struck Al Rekayyat, a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tanker, as it left the Strait of Hormuz. A fire spread through the engine room, and for a few hours, the region waited to find out whether the vessel would be the latest casualty of the U.S.-Iranian war’s worst maritime incident yet. Al Rekayyat belongs to transportation firm Nakilat, majority-owned by Qatar, which has facilitated extensive negotiations between Washington and… Continue reading The Iranian Duality the Region Must Stop Indulging
Blog Category: Home Featured Blog
Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
The U.S.-Iran war has so far failed to produce any decisive strategic outcome or end the threat hanging over the Gulf. Instead, it has ushered the region into a new phase of managed instability, characterized by cycles of escalation and de-escalation, with no clear political or military resolution in sight. The war has placed the Strait… Continue reading Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
Iran War Marks the Struggle for America’s Story at 250 Years
An anniversary is a moment for story-telling, and the U.S. loves grand stories. Yet as the country marked its 250th anniversary, the stories its leaders told were as much linked to the electoral politics of the moment as to a grand national narrative. The left condemned President Donald Trump for turning the spotlight on himself; the right accused New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani of being unpatriotic. Yet focusing on domestic politics, even in light of November’s midterm elections, ignores the broader significance of the occasion—not least, the highly contested question of how Trump’s fateful war… Continue reading Iran War Marks the Struggle for America’s Story at 250 Years
Why the U.S.-Iranian MoU Didn’t Last
The optimistic narrative regarding an imminent, lasting settlement between Tehran and Washington has evaporated. The region has reverted to the situation that prevailed at the onset of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in February: missile launches, reciprocal strikes, and an escalation that threatens the security of the Gulf and Jordan, as well as the stability of global energy markets. It is as if… Continue reading Why the U.S.-Iranian MoU Didn’t Last
Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has reminded the world that despite its digital nature, the global economy remains reliant on maritime corridors, energy markets, raw materials, and states’ ability to safeguard supply chains. Disruptions to navigation via the Strait of Hormuz and the ensuing turmoil in global markets have exposed the vulnerability of relying on a handful of strategic trade routes, demonstrating that power is measured not only by technological prowess but… Continue reading Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa
Syria Moves to Manage its Differences with Hezbollah
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani’s July 4 visit to the Lebanese capital came at a highly sensitive moment in the region. It coincided with negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, mounting pressure over Hezbollah’s weaponry, and Arab and regional maneuvering that is reshaping the balance of power in the region—all in the shadow of the transformations… Continue reading Syria Moves to Manage its Differences with Hezbollah
The 2026 World Cup and the Politics of Selective Outrage
The 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup was always going to be historic. This round of the world’s most-watched single-sport tournament was spread across three host countries and expanded to 48 participating nations for the first time. After two World Cups—Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022—which were heavily criticized by the Western media on human rights grounds and allegations of “sportswashing,” FIFA President Gianni Infantino may have hoped for… Continue reading The 2026 World Cup and the Politics of Selective Outrage
The Hormuz Blockade Experience Is Forcing Food Security Adaptation
Media coverage of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has focused overwhelmingly on the disruption of energy supplies to global markets. Yet this narrow waterway also connects Gulf fertilizer producers with farms across Africa, Asia, and beyond. The disruption of these agricultural inputs threatens to increase global hunger… Continue reading The Hormuz Blockade Experience Is Forcing Food Security Adaptation
Pakistan and Qatar’s Emergence as Key Mediators in Iran-U.S. Diplomacy
The American-Israeli war on Iran has not only reshaped the Middle East’s security landscape; it has also accelerated an important shift in regional diplomacy. Qatar has emerged from the conflict with its position as one of the region’s—and increasingly the world’s—most consequential diplomatic brokers further strengthened, while Pakistan has made a surprising but significant entry into the mediation… Continue reading Pakistan and Qatar’s Emergence as Key Mediators in Iran-U.S. Diplomacy
Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Success Is Reshaping Politics at Home
The most significant political consequence of Türkiye’s handling of the 2026 Iran war may not be what it achieved abroad, but how it continues to reshape politics at home. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerged from the crisis with enhanced regional standing after Ankara helped facilitate de-escalation efforts while maintaining relations across competing camps. At a time when the Middle East… Continue reading Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Success Is Reshaping Politics at Home
Syria’s New Energy Diplomacy Is Turning Geography into Political Capital
For much of the Assad era, Syria’s geography was viewed primarily through a military lens. Internal security and regime survival consistently took precedence over economic integration, leaving the country’s strategic location between the Gulf, Türkiye, Iraq, and the Mediterranean largely underutilized. The civil war that began in 2011 only deepened Syria’s isolation, severing trade routes,… Continue reading Syria’s New Energy Diplomacy Is Turning Geography into Political Capital
Israeli-Turkish Competition Intensifies in Syria and Beyond
During a recent television interview with Tamir Hayman, Israel’s former military intelligence chief mentioned that Israel had hoped to pressure Tehran at the outset of the war it launched with the United States in late February by instigating a Kurdish insurgency inside Iran. Hayman claimed, however, that this “centerpiece” of a wider plan to bring down the Islamic… Continue reading Israeli-Turkish Competition Intensifies in Syria and Beyond
The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
The Strait of Hormuz is back at the center of regional and international controversy—not because its geography has changed, but because Iran has pressed on with its political approach, refusing to make any tangible shift in its regional policies. Even after signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S., pledging to restore maritime traffic through the waterway within 30 days, Tehran continues to use the Strait for leverage, threatening the security of… Continue reading The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
Can the Lebanon-Israel Framework Survive Reality?
On June 26, Lebanon and Israel signed a U.S.-sponsored framework agreement in Washington aimed at ending the war across their border, organizing a gradual Israeli withdrawal, and restoring the Lebanese state’s monopoly over security decision-making and the use of force on its territory. Yet the crux of the agreement lies not in its content, but in… Continue reading Can the Lebanon-Israel Framework Survive Reality?
Can the GCC Lead in Environmentally Responsible Solar Development?
Amid the wartime focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of critical hydrocarbon supplies to global energy markets, another major transformation in the Gulf has received far less attention: the rapid expansion of renewable energy. Over the past decade, the Gulf Cooperation Council region has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing solar energy markets. Solar power now accounts for roughly half of the GCC’s energy mix, up from less than 10 percent in… Continue reading Can the GCC Lead in Environmentally Responsible Solar Development?
The U.S.-Iran Deal: Resolving the Crisis or Refinancing it?
The timing of the truce agreement between the U.S. and Iran reveals a shift in Washington’s approach to the crisis in the Gulf. The Trump administration, which initially presented its February escalation as a way to reshape the balance of power with Tehran, eventually found itself forced to contain the fire before it started to inflict deeper damage at the political, economic, and security levels. In this sense, the agreement is more of a way out of a predicament that the tools of hard power have failed to tackle, rather than the crowning of an American victory. … Continue reading The U.S.-Iran Deal: Resolving the Crisis or Refinancing it?
Gulf Confederation: From Cooperation to a Shared Destiny
In the moments of calm that follow major crises, states are not measured solely by their capacity to endure, but by their ability to redefine their roles and revive deferred strategic projects before new crises engulf them. A ceasefire is not the end of a conflict; rather, it is a critical juncture for reassessment: what has been achieved, and… Continue reading Gulf Confederation: From Cooperation to a Shared Destiny
Are UAE-Pakistan Relations Unraveling?
Over roughly the past year, a perception has taken hold in the mainstream press and on social media that Pakistan’s relations with the United Arab Emirates are in decline. Driven primarily by the notion that the UAE’s relationship with Pakistan’s rival, India, is ascendant and that Pakistan has drifted closer to Saudi Arabia, the negative… Continue reading Are UAE-Pakistan Relations Unraveling?
The U.S.-Iran Agreement: A Signature without a Handshake
The truce agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran on June 17 has sparked widespread debate over its true nature and ultimate objectives. While some view it as a significant diplomatic step that successfully averted a perilous regional confrontation, others see it as merely postponing the crisis, rather than resolving it. From both these perspectives, a key question arises: Is this an agreement that lays the foundation for a long-term stability, or merely a political truce that masks deep-seated disagreements? In one… Continue reading The U.S.-Iran Agreement: A Signature without a Handshake
Xi-Trump Summit: Navigating Rivalries Amidst Global Turbulence
When Beijing rolled out the red carpet for U.S. President Donald Trump in May, 2026, it was more than an exercise in protocol. It was a symbolic attempt to mend a fractured global order. Trump’s visit followed a significant decline in the U.S. trade deficit with China to just over $202 billion in 2025 — a 31.6% decrease from the previous year. This gave him grounds to claim that his policy of pressure on Beijing had been successful, paving the… Continue reading Xi-Trump Summit: Navigating Rivalries Amidst Global Turbulence
A Gulf NATO: The Strategic Necessity of a Collective Deterrence System
The term “Gulf NATO” is often used in political discussions as a slogan or a theoretical concept, but its roots go much deeper. The idea would not be to create a new military alliance from scratch, but rather to develop the region’s existing security structure, which emerged with the establishment of the GCC in 1981 and developed over subsequent years with the creation of the Peninsula Shield Force, the first institutional attempt to translate the concept of… Continue reading A Gulf NATO: The Strategic Necessity of a Collective Deterrence System
The Legal Mirage in the U.S. Strategy for Iranian Assets
With the United States and Iran now reaching an interim peace agreement to halt their four-month military conflict and lift the U.S. naval blockade, the path has been cleared for a 60-day negotiation window regarding Tehran’s nuclear program. Throughout the conflict, Tehran has demanded the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets as a core… Continue reading The Legal Mirage in the U.S. Strategy for Iranian Assets
Gulf Digital Sovereignty in the Age of AI Warfare
Governing an Ungovernable Space For much of modern history, a state’s global influence was measured through military power, territorial reach, international alliances, and financial clout. Today, however, the influence of states extends through digital media that shape how societies absorb information, interpret political events, and manage crises. Algorithms embedded within social media platforms and search engines… Continue reading Gulf Digital Sovereignty in the Age of AI Warfare
U.S. Bases in the GCC: A Security Model Under Attack
The U.S.-Israel war against Iran, and Tehran’s subsequent missile and drone retaliation against the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states hosting American forces, has revived a longstanding strategic question regarding the nature of U.S. military bases abroad, and whose interests they ultimately serve. It has also reopened a lively debate among Gulf analysts, policymakers, and commentators over whether the continued U.S. military footprint remains the most effective… Continue reading U.S. Bases in the GCC: A Security Model Under Attack
How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
The war in Iran marks a major inflection point in the security outlook and external partnerships of Gulf countries. In many ways, it mirrors the geopolitical awakening that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered for Europeans after 2022. Like their European counterparts, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states now face the dilemma of relying on a security partner—the United States—that remains indispensable yet increasingly… Continue reading How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
Algeria’s Chokepoint Opportunity
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has brought the Strait of Hormuz to the center of global energy politics, generating renewed concern among European governments over the vulnerabilities inherent in relying on supply routes subject to geopolitical disruption. As tanker traffic through the strait collapsed and gas prices across Europe rose by more than 70 percent in… Continue reading Algeria’s Chokepoint Opportunity
Has Anyone ‘Won’ the Iran War?
The US-Israel-Iran war has reshaped the Middle East’s balance of power, but it has not produced a strategic resolution for any of the actors involved. While both sides traded escalation with containment, Europe and China kept their focus firmly on the economic risks, managing their own exposure to the war rather than seeking to alter the course… Continue reading Has Anyone ‘Won’ the Iran War?
Can Trump Escape from a Negotiation Trap of His Own Making?
When Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—otherwise known as the Iran nuclear agreement—in 2018, he declared that his predecessor had signed “the worst deal in history” and promised to do dramatically better. It was a characteristically bold claim—and one that has since metastasized into a strategic trap from… Continue reading Can Trump Escape from a Negotiation Trap of His Own Making?
The Costs of the Iran War Ceasefire for the Gulf States
More than two months into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, the Gulf states keep paying for a conflict they did not start, cannot control, and cannot afford to end on the wrong terms. A conditional ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran on April 8 is holding, but the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed by both countries, and the costs behind the… Continue reading The Costs of the Iran War Ceasefire for the Gulf States
The Gulf States’ Defense-Industrial Base is a Priority of the Post-War Future
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has done much more to the Arab Gulf than inflict material and economic damage. It has shattered the foundational assumptions of the regional security order and forced a reassessment of the defense-industrial policies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. From the war’s zero hour on February 28,… Continue reading The Gulf States’ Defense-Industrial Base is a Priority of the Post-War Future
The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
The U.S.–Israel Iran war reflects a broader transformation in contemporary conflict, where success is defined less by decisive military victory than by the ability to control escalation. In this evolving strategic environment, the “eye for an eye” principle continues to shape deterrence and reciprocity, but in more calibrated forms. Retaliatory actions are increasingly symbolic and… Continue reading The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?
Lebanon is expected to soon enter a third round of preliminary, ambassador-level talks with Israel under the auspices of Washington, aimed at paving the way for direct, high-level negotiations. Yet internally, Lebanon is a mess. The country’s president, prime minister, and speaker of parliament—all hailing from different religious sects according to Lebanon’s confessional system—cannot agree… Continue reading Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?
Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States
The Gulf states are right to view Iraq as a security risk. Thirty-six years after Saddam Hussein’s forces crossed into Kuwait, and twenty-three years after the regime fell, Baghdad remains the one Arab capital whose commitments the Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) cannot rely upon. That is not a polemical claim it is a claim… Continue reading Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States
Qatar Foreign Policy in a Changing Region: Preserving Balance and Strategic Autonomy
Despite its relatively small size, Qatar has forged an ambitious foreign policy in a volatile region often characterized by tension and instability. Doha has focused on strategies that prioritize its sovereignty, enable it to influence and adapt to regional developments through proactive diplomacy, expand its spheres of engagement, and maintain its political independence, all while… Continue reading Qatar Foreign Policy in a Changing Region: Preserving Balance and Strategic Autonomy
The UAE’s OPEC Exit Leaves the Gulf Further Adrift
On April 28, the United Arab Emirates announced that it would end its 59-year membership in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—pointedly coming on the same day that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was presiding over a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit that was supposed to lead to greater unity among the… Continue reading The UAE’s OPEC Exit Leaves the Gulf Further Adrift
Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever
The Iran war has catapulted the Gulf region into a new era of conflict and fragmentation, with Gulf capitals reassessing how best to defend their countries and stabilize the region amid unprecedented threats to their national security. Despite precarious ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon, the region remains on edge as tensions between the United States… Continue reading Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever
The Hidden Risks of Declaring Early Victory over Iran
The ongoing military confrontation in the Persian Gulf region—pitting the United States and Israel against Iran—has spilled far beyond the confines of its direct combatants. Iran’s neighbors, including the Gulf states, Iraq, and Jordan, though not architects of this conflict, have nonetheless emerged as its primary victims. Facing the targeting of energy infrastructure, the disruption… Continue reading The Hidden Risks of Declaring Early Victory over Iran
Is a New Strategic Bloc Emerging in the Middle East?
For months prior to the outbreak of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, regional powers began laying the groundwork for a security partnership that could reshape Middle East geopolitics. The foreign ministers of Türkiye, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have convened on multiple occasions to coordinate responses to an increasingly dangerous and chaotic security environment, including recently at… Continue reading Is a New Strategic Bloc Emerging in the Middle East?
Iran’s Rulers Have Survived Every War for Five Centuries. Will This One Be Different?
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s resilience in the face of the unprecedented severity of the U.S.-Israeli assault that began on February 28 should surprise no one who has read Iranian history with any seriousness. Since the early sixteenth century, Iran has fought more than twenty major wars—against the Ottomans, Uzbeks, Afghans, the Russian and British… Continue reading Iran’s Rulers Have Survived Every War for Five Centuries. Will This One Be Different?
The Iran War’s Shadow Over Iraq’s Preexisting Dynamics
For Iraq, the Iran war is not simply another regional crisis spilling across its borders. It is foregrounding fundamental questions about the country’s post-2003 political order itself: the extent of Iranian influence, the future of relations with the Arab Gulf and the United States, and the role of Iran-aligned factions within the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilization… Continue reading The Iran War’s Shadow Over Iraq’s Preexisting Dynamics
Houthi Involvement in the Iran War: Reasons for Limited Escalation
To date, Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, have played a limited role in the U.S., Israel and Iran war. This cautious engagement raises important questions about their motives and the factors that could push this influential non-state actor to escalate further. Despite possessing highly effective tools, the Houthis have opted for restraint… Continue reading Houthi Involvement in the Iran War: Reasons for Limited Escalation
The GCC Will Not Unify on Iran
The war that has unfolded across the Gulf has done more than shatter the region’s security architecture. It has also underscored a long-standing reality: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has never operated as a unified actor in its approach toward Iran, and it is unlikely to do so after the conflict ends. The GCC is… Continue reading The GCC Will Not Unify on Iran
Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
The United States and Iran departed from high-level, direct talks in Pakistan without a peace deal. According to the American side, it was their continued disagreement over the nuclear question that ultimately stood in the way. Yet conspicuously absent from the table were the Arab Gulf states, which have absorbed five weeks of strikes on their territories in a war… Continue reading Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
In Lebanon, a New Wave of Displacement Exposes a Broken System
More than one million people have been displaced across Lebanon since Israel’s latest escalation began on March 2. In a matter of days, sweeping, unlawful displacement orders were given for the entirety of southern Lebanon, parts of the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs known as the Dahiyeh—areas that together account for roughly 14 percent of Lebanese territory. Lebanon has struggled to absorb the shock. Of… Continue reading In Lebanon, a New Wave of Displacement Exposes a Broken System
The Iran War and the Battle for A Multipolar World Order
What is unfolding in Iran is not simply a war over the regional balance of power or nuclear containment. It is an attempt to rupture the geographic core of an emerging multipolar order designed to bypass Western dominance—by targeting the single state that links China’s and Russia’s ambitions across the entire Eurasian continent. The strikes on Iranian military installations, critical infrastructure, and political leadership—especially the initial assassination of Supreme… Continue reading The Iran War and the Battle for A Multipolar World Order
Türkiye’s Strategic Balancing Act in the Iran War
When the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28, Türkiye did not hesitate to stake out its position. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the strikes as a violation of Iranian sovereignty and closed Turkish airspace to American combat operations. Yet in the same breath, Ankara denounced Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Gulf Cooperation Council states as… Continue reading Türkiye’s Strategic Balancing Act in the Iran War
Gulf Security Beyond Guarantees
Since late February, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury and Operation Rising Lion, respectively, the Gulf states have been drawn into a war not of their making and not in their interests. For years, the Gulf states carefully diversified their security strategies, deepening ties with the U.S., expanding diplomatic… Continue reading Gulf Security Beyond Guarantees
Gulf States in the Crossfire of a War They Tried To Prevent
When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, Tehran responded, in large part, by attacking military installations and civilian infrastructure in the Gulf states. The Islamic Republic’s strategy was to immediately raise and disperse the cost of the war by destabilizing the global economy and pressuring the Gulf states… Continue reading Gulf States in the Crossfire of a War They Tried To Prevent
How the War is Redefining Gulf Economic Power and Energy Strategy
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are confronting the greatest threat to their economic security and energy strategy since their formation. The economic fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is severe, but uneven across the Gulf. So too is each state’s ability to sustain energy exports and protect critical infrastructure—both of which have been targeted unequally by Iran. The war has produced the largest disruption to global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in modern history. Before… Continue reading How the War is Redefining Gulf Economic Power and Energy Strategy
Reframing the Gulf Regional Security Architecture
The U.S.-Israel-Iran war has reopened the question of the security relationship between the Gulf and the United States with an intensity and controversy not seen before. The debate is no longer confined to the traditional notion of a protective umbrella that guarantees the security of oil supplies in exchange for a substantial American military presence. Instead, it has… Continue reading Reframing the Gulf Regional Security Architecture