Governing an Ungovernable Space For much of modern history, a state’s global influence was measured through military power, territorial reach, international alliances, and financial clout. Today, however, the influence of states extends through digital media that shape how societies absorb information, interpret political events, and manage crises. Algorithms embedded within social media platforms and search engines… Continue reading Gulf Digital Sovereignty in the Age of AI Warfare
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U.S. Bases in the GCC: A Security Model Under Attack
The U.S.-Israel war against Iran, and Tehran’s subsequent missile and drone retaliation against the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states hosting American forces, has revived a longstanding strategic question regarding the nature of U.S. military bases abroad, and whose interests they ultimately serve. It has also reopened a lively debate among Gulf analysts, policymakers, and commentators over whether the continued U.S. military footprint remains the most effective… Continue reading U.S. Bases in the GCC: A Security Model Under Attack
How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
The war in Iran marks a major inflection point in the security outlook and external partnerships of Gulf countries. In many ways, it mirrors the geopolitical awakening that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered for Europeans after 2022. Like their European counterparts, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states now face the dilemma of relying on a security partner—the United States—that remains indispensable yet increasingly… Continue reading How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
Algeria’s Chokepoint Opportunity
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has brought the Strait of Hormuz to the center of global energy politics, generating renewed concern among European governments over the vulnerabilities inherent in relying on supply routes subject to geopolitical disruption. As tanker traffic through the strait collapsed and gas prices across Europe rose by more than 70 percent in… Continue reading Algeria’s Chokepoint Opportunity
Has Anyone ‘Won’ the Iran War?
The US-Israel-Iran war has reshaped the Middle East’s balance of power, but it has not produced a strategic resolution for any of the actors involved. While both sides traded escalation with containment, Europe and China kept their focus firmly on the economic risks, managing their own exposure to the war rather than seeking to alter the course… Continue reading Has Anyone ‘Won’ the Iran War?
Can Trump Escape from a Negotiation Trap of His Own Making?
When Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—otherwise known as the Iran nuclear agreement—in 2018, he declared that his predecessor had signed “the worst deal in history” and promised to do dramatically better. It was a characteristically bold claim—and one that has since metastasized into a strategic trap from… Continue reading Can Trump Escape from a Negotiation Trap of His Own Making?
The Costs of the Iran War Ceasefire for the Gulf States
More than two months into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, the Gulf states keep paying for a conflict they did not start, cannot control, and cannot afford to end on the wrong terms. A conditional ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran on April 8 is holding, but the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed by both countries, and the costs behind the… Continue reading The Costs of the Iran War Ceasefire for the Gulf States
The Gulf States’ Defense-Industrial Base is a Priority of the Post-War Future
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has done much more to the Arab Gulf than inflict material and economic damage. It has shattered the foundational assumptions of the regional security order and forced a reassessment of the defense-industrial policies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. From the war’s zero hour on February 28,… Continue reading The Gulf States’ Defense-Industrial Base is a Priority of the Post-War Future
The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
The U.S.–Israel Iran war reflects a broader transformation in contemporary conflict, where success is defined less by decisive military victory than by the ability to control escalation. In this evolving strategic environment, the “eye for an eye” principle continues to shape deterrence and reciprocity, but in more calibrated forms. Retaliatory actions are increasingly symbolic and… Continue reading The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?
Lebanon is expected to soon enter a third round of preliminary, ambassador-level talks with Israel under the auspices of Washington, aimed at paving the way for direct, high-level negotiations. Yet internally, Lebanon is a mess. The country’s president, prime minister, and speaker of parliament—all hailing from different religious sects according to Lebanon’s confessional system—cannot agree… Continue reading Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?
Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States
The Gulf states are right to view Iraq as a security risk. Thirty-six years after Saddam Hussein’s forces crossed into Kuwait, and twenty-three years after the regime fell, Baghdad remains the one Arab capital whose commitments the Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) cannot rely upon. That is not a polemical claim it is a claim… Continue reading Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States
Qatar Foreign Policy in a Changing Region: Preserving Balance and Strategic Autonomy
Despite its relatively small size, Qatar has forged an ambitious foreign policy in a volatile region often characterized by tension and instability. Doha has focused on strategies that prioritize its sovereignty, enable it to influence and adapt to regional developments through proactive diplomacy, expand its spheres of engagement, and maintain its political independence, all while… Continue reading Qatar Foreign Policy in a Changing Region: Preserving Balance and Strategic Autonomy
The UAE’s OPEC Exit Leaves the Gulf Further Adrift
On April 28, the United Arab Emirates announced that it would end its 59-year membership in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—pointedly coming on the same day that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was presiding over a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit that was supposed to lead to greater unity among the… Continue reading The UAE’s OPEC Exit Leaves the Gulf Further Adrift
Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever
The Iran war has catapulted the Gulf region into a new era of conflict and fragmentation, with Gulf capitals reassessing how best to defend their countries and stabilize the region amid unprecedented threats to their national security. Despite precarious ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon, the region remains on edge as tensions between the United States… Continue reading Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever
The Hidden Risks of Declaring Early Victory over Iran
The ongoing military confrontation in the Persian Gulf region—pitting the United States and Israel against Iran—has spilled far beyond the confines of its direct combatants. Iran’s neighbors, including the Gulf states, Iraq, and Jordan, though not architects of this conflict, have nonetheless emerged as its primary victims. Facing the targeting of energy infrastructure, the disruption… Continue reading The Hidden Risks of Declaring Early Victory over Iran
Is a New Strategic Bloc Emerging in the Middle East?
For months prior to the outbreak of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, regional powers began laying the groundwork for a security partnership that could reshape Middle East geopolitics. The foreign ministers of Türkiye, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have convened on multiple occasions to coordinate responses to an increasingly dangerous and chaotic security environment, including recently at… Continue reading Is a New Strategic Bloc Emerging in the Middle East?
Iran’s Rulers Have Survived Every War for Five Centuries. Will This One Be Different?
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s resilience in the face of the unprecedented severity of the U.S.-Israeli assault that began on February 28 should surprise no one who has read Iranian history with any seriousness. Since the early sixteenth century, Iran has fought more than twenty major wars—against the Ottomans, Uzbeks, Afghans, the Russian and British… Continue reading Iran’s Rulers Have Survived Every War for Five Centuries. Will This One Be Different?
The Iran War’s Shadow Over Iraq’s Preexisting Dynamics
For Iraq, the Iran war is not simply another regional crisis spilling across its borders. It is foregrounding fundamental questions about the country’s post-2003 political order itself: the extent of Iranian influence, the future of relations with the Arab Gulf and the United States, and the role of Iran-aligned factions within the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilization… Continue reading The Iran War’s Shadow Over Iraq’s Preexisting Dynamics
Houthi Involvement in the Iran War: Reasons for Limited Escalation
To date, Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, have played a limited role in the U.S., Israel and Iran war. This cautious engagement raises important questions about their motives and the factors that could push this influential non-state actor to escalate further. Despite possessing highly effective tools, the Houthis have opted for restraint… Continue reading Houthi Involvement in the Iran War: Reasons for Limited Escalation
The GCC Will Not Unify on Iran
The war that has unfolded across the Gulf has done more than shatter the region’s security architecture. It has also underscored a long-standing reality: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has never operated as a unified actor in its approach toward Iran, and it is unlikely to do so after the conflict ends. The GCC is… Continue reading The GCC Will Not Unify on Iran
Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
The United States and Iran departed from high-level, direct talks in Pakistan without a peace deal. According to the American side, it was their continued disagreement over the nuclear question that ultimately stood in the way. Yet conspicuously absent from the table were the Arab Gulf states, which have absorbed five weeks of strikes on their territories in a war… Continue reading Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
In Lebanon, a New Wave of Displacement Exposes a Broken System
More than one million people have been displaced across Lebanon since Israel’s latest escalation began on March 2. In a matter of days, sweeping, unlawful displacement orders were given for the entirety of southern Lebanon, parts of the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs known as the Dahiyeh—areas that together account for roughly 14 percent of Lebanese territory. Lebanon has struggled to absorb the shock. Of… Continue reading In Lebanon, a New Wave of Displacement Exposes a Broken System
The Iran War and the Battle for A Multipolar World Order
What is unfolding in Iran is not simply a war over the regional balance of power or nuclear containment. It is an attempt to rupture the geographic core of an emerging multipolar order designed to bypass Western dominance—by targeting the single state that links China’s and Russia’s ambitions across the entire Eurasian continent. The strikes on Iranian military installations, critical infrastructure, and political leadership—especially the initial assassination of Supreme… Continue reading The Iran War and the Battle for A Multipolar World Order
Türkiye’s Strategic Balancing Act in the Iran War
When the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28, Türkiye did not hesitate to stake out its position. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the strikes as a violation of Iranian sovereignty and closed Turkish airspace to American combat operations. Yet in the same breath, Ankara denounced Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Gulf Cooperation Council states as… Continue reading Türkiye’s Strategic Balancing Act in the Iran War
Gulf Security Beyond Guarantees
Since late February, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury and Operation Rising Lion, respectively, the Gulf states have been drawn into a war not of their making and not in their interests. For years, the Gulf states carefully diversified their security strategies, deepening ties with the U.S., expanding diplomatic… Continue reading Gulf Security Beyond Guarantees
Gulf States in the Crossfire of a War They Tried To Prevent
When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, Tehran responded, in large part, by attacking military installations and civilian infrastructure in the Gulf states. The Islamic Republic’s strategy was to immediately raise and disperse the cost of the war by destabilizing the global economy and pressuring the Gulf states… Continue reading Gulf States in the Crossfire of a War They Tried To Prevent
How the War is Redefining Gulf Economic Power and Energy Strategy
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are confronting the greatest threat to their economic security and energy strategy since their formation. The economic fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is severe, but uneven across the Gulf. So too is each state’s ability to sustain energy exports and protect critical infrastructure—both of which have been targeted unequally by Iran. The war has produced the largest disruption to global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in modern history. Before… Continue reading How the War is Redefining Gulf Economic Power and Energy Strategy
Reframing the Gulf Regional Security Architecture
The U.S.-Israel-Iran war has reopened the question of the security relationship between the Gulf and the United States with an intensity and controversy not seen before. The debate is no longer confined to the traditional notion of a protective umbrella that guarantees the security of oil supplies in exchange for a substantial American military presence. Instead, it has… Continue reading Reframing the Gulf Regional Security Architecture
Why the Gulf Must Build Its Own Economic Playbook
The Arab Gulf region stands at a pivotal moment. After more than five decades of economic planning largely shaped by imported models, external expertise, and prescribed solutions, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are moving into a new phase, one that calls for locally driven economic thinking, greater regional self-reliance, and the confidence to forge an independent path.… Continue reading Why the Gulf Must Build Its Own Economic Playbook
Who Pumps the Oil… and Who Controls It?
Iran’s announcement that “non-hostile vessels” will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz is the latest—and perhaps clearest—illustration of how oil has become a weapon of war. In a letter to the International Maritime Organization, Tehran framed the restriction of certain vessels as a lawful act of self-defense, explicitly linking access to the world’s most critical… Continue reading Who Pumps the Oil… and Who Controls It?
GCC Air Defense Between Challenge and Transformation
The Arab Gulf has entered a critical phase in which its security architecture is being actively reshaped. The expansion of the U.S.–Israeli confrontation with Iran, and the resulting spillover across the region, has moved the Gulf from a peripheral theater to a central arena of escalation. Cross-border attacks targeting vital infrastructure—using ballistic missiles such as… Continue reading GCC Air Defense Between Challenge and Transformation
To Protect Its Strategic Interests, the Gulf Must Form a More Cohesive Bloc
The gravity of war in the Middle East cannot be measured by the depth of depleted arsenals or the number of sorties that streak across its skies, but by the structural imbalances it exposes and the truths it lays bare—truths that have long been hidden behind facades of alliances, agreements, and hollow slogans. The open confrontation unfolding today between the United States and Israel on one… Continue reading To Protect Its Strategic Interests, the Gulf Must Form a More Cohesive Bloc
Israel’s Strike on North Field–South Pars: Energy War and Global Risk
On March 18, 2026, an Israeli air raid targeted treatment facilities at Asaluyeh, the onshore processing hub for Iran’s largest natural gas field and a bedrock of domestic supply. The governor of Asaluyeh confirmed the facilities were “taken offline” to control fires, with no immediate disclosure of production losses. Israeli military sources acknowledged that the… Continue reading Israel’s Strike on North Field–South Pars: Energy War and Global Risk
The Gulf’s Diplomatic Counterstrike at the UNSC
There are no silver linings for the Gulf in the current war, where the human toll and economic disruption are front and center. Yet on the global diplomatic front, the Gulf states leveraged their investments and influence at the United Nations to deliver an historic outcome in support of their security. Bahrain presented Security Council resolution 2817 on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Jordan, adopted… Continue reading The Gulf’s Diplomatic Counterstrike at the UNSC
Strategic Transformations in Gulf Security: From Negotiation and Deterrence to Engagement
This article was originally published in Arabic and has been translated into English. Even over the years prior to the latest Israeli-American war on Iran, the Gulf security environment had undergone a profound reshaping in terms of patterns of strategic interaction. This had shifted the region from a phase of restrained pressure and mutual… Continue reading Strategic Transformations in Gulf Security: From Negotiation and Deterrence to Engagement
How the Gulf States Can Navigate the Middle East’s New Alliance Politics
Alliance politics is returning to the Middle East in ways that recall earlier eras of regional competition, but with a far more complex geometry. Recent remarks by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggesting that a broader network of alliances is emerging around Israel, linking partners such as India, Greece, and Cyprus alongside other regional actors, reflect a wider reconfiguration of regional alignments accelerated… Continue reading How the Gulf States Can Navigate the Middle East’s New Alliance Politics
The Gulf Stability Model is Under Pressure
As the war between the United States, Israel and Iran enters its third week, its consequences are continuing to spread well beyond the battlefield. Missile strikes have hit critical infrastructure across the Gulf, while threats against commercial shipping have effectively shut down normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the latter part of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. The commodity pricing agency S&P Global Platts has already suspended… Continue reading The Gulf Stability Model is Under Pressure
Six, or One Bloc of Six?
At first glance, readers might wonder about the meaning of this title and its implications. However, the answer will become clear in the lines that follow, which aim to provide an interpretation that clarifies the title’s significance. As the US–Israeli war against Iran passes its sixteenth day, and despite the uncertainty around its end, it… Continue reading Six, or One Bloc of Six?
Water Must Not Become A Target in the Region’s Wars
In the arid lands of the Arab Gulf, water is often said to be more precious than oil. Over the past half-century, oil revenues have driven rapid population expansion and the construction of modern metropolises. However, freshwater resources are limited, requiring Gulf states to increasingly rely on desalination to survive and thrive. The primacy and scarcity of water have… Continue reading Water Must Not Become A Target in the Region’s Wars
How Gulf Defense Capabilities Are Preventing Further Escalation with Iran
The joint U.S.–Israeli strikes against Iran that began February 28—culminating in the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—sent shockwaves through the Middle East and immediately raised fears of a wider regional war. Within hours, those fears appeared justified. Tehran retaliated not only against the United States and Israel but broadened its battlefield to include the… Continue reading How Gulf Defense Capabilities Are Preventing Further Escalation with Iran
War with Israel Forces Lebanon to Confront Hezbollah’s Arms
Israel’s war on Lebanon is rapidly escalating, with military operations penetrating deep into Lebanese territory: in the south, the Bekaa Valley, and key areas of Beirut—especially its southern suburb of Dahiya. The conflict is no longer confined to the border region between the two states. It has metastasized into an all-out war, imposing new military and security realities across the country. Diplomatic efforts have been ineffective in… Continue reading War with Israel Forces Lebanon to Confront Hezbollah’s Arms
How Does Türkiye View the U.S.–Israel War on Iran?
The ongoing war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran aims to weaken the Iranian regime and destroy its military infrastructure, including both its existing and potential weapons capabilities. At the outset of the conflict, some observers expected that military pressure might trigger internal unrest in Iran and eventually lead to regime change.… Continue reading How Does Türkiye View the U.S.–Israel War on Iran?
How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
The Israeli-U.S. war on Iran has thrown Gulf societies into a complex state of anxiety and emotional vigilance. This reaction is not merely a response to rapid military developments. It reflects a mindset shaped over decades by historical experience and repeated security crises. As regional tensions escalate and threaten the Gulf’s vital interests, public sentiment… Continue reading How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
Pakistan’s Iran Trap
A defense pact is only as credible as the state that signs it. When Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told reporters on March 3 that he had warned Tehran not to strike Saudi Arabia—invoking a mutual defense agreement signed just six months ago—he did not sound like a man laying down a tripwire. He sounded like one hoping no one would… Continue reading Pakistan’s Iran Trap
The Costs of the Iran Conflict for the Gulf
In short order, the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has expanded across the region, with Gulf states bearing the brunt of Tehran’s retaliatory campaign aimed at dispersing the costs of the war and pressuring Washington to halt its offensive. This has included targeting energy infrastructure, shipping routes and aviation networks, threatening not only regional stability but… Continue reading The Costs of the Iran Conflict for the Gulf
Avoiding War with Iran Is the Gulf’s Only Winning Move
In the months following Israel’s overwhelmingly disproportionate response to the October 7 attacks, diplomats and international observers repeatedly warned that the war risked expanding beyond Gaza and destabilizing the wider region. Governments and international organizations cautioned that unless the violence was halted, it would inevitably spill across borders and draw neighboring states into confrontation. Israel’s… Continue reading Avoiding War with Iran Is the Gulf’s Only Winning Move
Iran’s Regional Gamble and Its Implications for the Future of Gulf Security
The Iranian leadership made two major strategic mistakes. The first was failing to seize the opportunity to reach an agreement with the United States while the window for negotiations was still open — a step that could have spared the region further tension and instability. The second mistake was targeting the Gulf states, which had… Continue reading Iran’s Regional Gamble and Its Implications for the Future of Gulf Security
Iran Signals It Seeks a Resolution, But Is Also Prepared for War
Eight months after the U.S.-backed Israeli war on Iran in June 2025—which ended after an American strike on Iranian nuclear facilities—negotiators convened in Oman to discuss possible avenues for an agreement. The short but intense 12-day conflict triggered a reassessment by Iran’s strategic establishment about the value and limits of diplomatic engagement with Washington. Three conclusions have emerged clearly… Continue reading Iran Signals It Seeks a Resolution, But Is Also Prepared for War
Between War and Dialogue: Can a U.S.–Iran Confrontation Be Prevented?
As tensions rise between the United States and Iran, international attention has once again turned toward the Gulf. From maritime security incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz, to renewed sanctions and nuclear threats, this rising escalation between the two actors exposes the region’s fragility. The Gulf is central to global energy flows… Continue reading Between War and Dialogue: Can a U.S.–Iran Confrontation Be Prevented?
Despite stagnation in global corruption rankings, the regional reality is more complicated
In its annual survey on global corruption, which was released on February 10, Transparency International offered a sobering snapshot of governance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Collectively, the region has made scant progress during the past five years in combating corruption. Based on the Corruption Perceptions Index’s 100-point scale, the average score… Continue reading Despite stagnation in global corruption rankings, the regional reality is more complicated