With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025
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With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?
Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?
Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse
In early December, the Palestinian banking sector narrowly avoided financial freefall, as Israel’s far-right finance minister toyed with removing a crucial safeguard underpinning the correspondent relationship between Palestinian and Israeli banks. These safeguards protect the Israeli side from domestic and international legal risks arising from transactions with their Palestinian counterparts, offering immunity and indemnity if… Continue reading A Crisis Averted in Palestinian Banking Portends a Total Collapse
Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die
The lightening quick takeover of Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led-fighters in an offensive that began on November 27 and ousted the 54-year old Assad regime by December 8, has been stunning. Indeed, the speed of developments has left many observers with more questions than answers, including on the character of the rebel forces,… Continue reading Why Jihadist Groups Never Really Die
Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure
Editor’s Note The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure
Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins
On December 8, the world awoke to stunning news. Overnight, rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had taken Damascus, facing little resistance as they entered the Syrian capital. Most of the state’s security agents and armed forces simply abandoned their positions and walked away. In an instant, the Assad regime’s fifty-four-year brutal rule… Continue reading Today Syrians Celebrate, Tomorrow the Real Work Begins
The Saudi Anticorruption Drive Moves Beyond Frying a Few Big Fish
Seven years ago, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, commonly referred to as MBS, launched a massive anticorruption crackdown. The campaign, which went on until 2019, ended in hundreds of high-profile arrests on charges of money laundering, bribery and extortion, among other things. It is thought to have amassed over $100 billion in recovered… Continue reading The Saudi Anticorruption Drive Moves Beyond Frying a Few Big Fish
As Syria Heats Up, Türkiye Finds Itself in the Spotlight
The sudden and dramatic developments in northern Syria—beginning in the outskirts of Idlib and surrounding villages near Aleppo and culminating in Syria’s second largest city falling into rebel hands—have thrust Türkiye—widely seen as the closest external power to the rebel factions—into a spotlight it neither sought nor fully avoided. The speed and ease with which… Continue reading As Syria Heats Up, Türkiye Finds Itself in the Spotlight
Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?
After more than a year of hostilities that intensified dramatically in recent months, Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, but the fragile agreement has already been tested by reported violations. In this interview with Afkār, Saoud El Mawla, visiting senior fellow at the ME Council, examines the deal’s significance and durability, as well… Continue reading Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?
Widening Geopolitical Fault Lines Challenge Collective Action on Climate
The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) held in Azerbaijan this year wrapped up in tumultuous fashion, as representatives of “highly dissatisfied” poorer nations walked out in protest. While COP29 was ultimately salvaged with a deal to provide $300 billion in annual “loss and damage financing” to the world’s most vulnerable states, the unmistakable take-away… Continue reading Widening Geopolitical Fault Lines Challenge Collective Action on Climate
Trump Must Focus on Rebuilding a War-Torn Middle East
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has become the first Republican candidate in 20 years to win the popular vote. His historic win hands him control of the Senate, Congress and the Republican party, along with a strongly conservative-leaning Supreme Court. How will this power be deployed? If we take Trump’s election rhetoric literally, his “Maganomics” agenda will be… Continue reading Trump Must Focus on Rebuilding a War-Torn Middle East
Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis
For more than a year, Palestinians have faced a systematic and relentless assault on their homeland, amounting to the most profound crisis since the Nakba of 1948. Following the events of October 7, 2023, Israel has embarked on a genocidal campaign against the population of the Gaza Strip and stepped up its repression in the… Continue reading Lack of Palestinian Leadership Exacerbates Post-October 7 Crisis
Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War
For many years, China has been expanding its influence to every corner of the globe. And while its strategic priorities remain anchored in the Western Pacific—where it faces great-power rivalry with the United States, myriad territorial disputes, tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the potential for military conflict over the Taiwan Strait—its steadily growing presence… Continue reading Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War
Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office reshaped U.S.-Gulf relations. His approach focused on cultivating personal bonds with leaders of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), signing massive arms deals, and for the most part not touching human rights issues. Gulf statesmen mostly welcomed this approach, which provided immediate defense assurances without challenging their sovereignty. However, with… Continue reading Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East
On November 6, within hours of closing the polls, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin. Trump’s remarkable triumph, which will return him to the White House after his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020, comes at a… Continue reading Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East
Ethiopia and Somalia on the Edge of War
For months, momentum had been building toward war between Ethiopia and Somalia. After the breakaway region of Somaliland signed an agreement with Addis Ababa in January to exchange littoral rights for potential diplomatic recognition, tensions soared across the Horn of Africa. While recent weeks have seen the regional boil reduce to a simmer, other hot-button… Continue reading Ethiopia and Somalia on the Edge of War
Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum
On October 21, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Manama and met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, marking a significant turning point in Iran-Bahrain relations that have been severed since 2016. This visit—the first by an Iranian foreign minister to Bahrain since 2010—took place amid an escalating military confrontation between Iran and Israel. While Bahrain… Continue reading Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum
Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World
When United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) was adopted on October 31, 2000, it marked an unprecedented commitment by the international community to regard women as integral partners in peace processes. The WPS “agenda,” as it came to be known, encompasses ten UNSC resolutions that recognize the devastating… Continue reading Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World
How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?
On October 26, Israel carried out a long-anticipated strike against Iran, which came in retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage on Israel earlier this month—itself a response to a series of Israeli assassinations of Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas leaders since July. The latest exchange, however, marks a significant escalation in the confrontation between the two… Continue reading How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?
Beyond BRICS Summit, UAE and Brazil Deepen Ties
The BRICS+ summit being held on October 22 and 23 in Russia marks the first with the United Arab Emirates as a full member. Since joining the bloc at the beginning of the year, the Gulf state has ramped up its cooperation with other members of the bloc, particularly Brazil. Already the Emirates’ largest trade… Continue reading Beyond BRICS Summit, UAE and Brazil Deepen Ties
The BRICS+ Summit and the Shifting Global Order
On October 22nd, Russia will host the BRICS+ annual summit—its ranks swelled by new members and ambitions. As this year’s chair, Russia presides over a bloc that now represents 45.5% of the world’s population—more than four times that of the G7—with a combined GDP of $28.5tn, and 25% of global exports. BRICS+ is poised to… Continue reading The BRICS+ Summit and the Shifting Global Order
Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions
The Saudi-Iranian renormalization agreement of March 2023 was a watershed in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. Yet while China received much of the credit for the reconciliation, which cooled the flames of one of the region’s most tense rivalries, the previous two years of heavy lifting had largely been the work of Iraq and the Sultanate… Continue reading Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions
Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis
A major humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Lebanon. Israel’s attacks have exacted a heavy toll with over 2,000 people killed and 9,000 wounded. The last two weeks have wreaked severe damage on core infrastructure, public utilities, water, sanitation, power and roads. The country’s health system has also been degraded. Much of Beirut’s Dahiyeh and South Lebanon stands… Continue reading Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis
A Region Under Fire
Editor’s Note: There Are No Winners Here Omar H. Rahman, Fellow and Editor of Afkār, Middle East Council on Global Affairs The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023. Decades of military occupation, colonial land theft and systemic deprivation had already pushed Palestinians into a state of constant struggle, laying the groundwork… Continue reading A Region Under Fire
Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?
In the aftermath of Israel’s successful assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and as Israel begins its ground incursion in parts of southern Lebanon, two interrelated issues emerge. First, the status of Hezbollah and its future role in Lebanon and the region come into question. While Nasrallah’s assassination dealt a significant blow to the… Continue reading Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?
Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views
On January 1, the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland and landlocked Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting the latter port access to the Red Sea. In exchange for a 50-year lease of coastline near the strategic port of Berbera for commercial and naval uses, Addis Ababa agreed to consider recognizing Somaliland as a… Continue reading Ethiopia-Somalia Dispute: What Is at Stake for MENA? – Council Views
Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah
On September 28, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah following a massive Israeli airstrike in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. The assassination of Nasrallah follows a series of escalatory measures that includes the disruption of Hezbollah’s communication network through an explosive pager operation, the assassinations of other senior leaders in the… Continue reading Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah
Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”
In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its attacks in Lebanon, dealing a critical blow to much of Hezbollah’s top military leadership, including the late Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In this interview with Afkār, Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert and security analyst, offers his insights on Tehran’s strategic calculus at this watershed moment, including on… Continue reading Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”
Interview: Türkiye Engages the Arab League
At the most recent meeting of the League of Arab States (LAS) in Cairo, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was in attendance, marking the first time Türkiye has been represented at the summit in 13 years. In his address, Fidan offered pointed remarks on the war on Gaza and the need for unity among Arab… Continue reading Interview: Türkiye Engages the Arab League
Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?
On September 23, Israel began a major military offensive against Lebanon that left around 500 people dead, mainly civilians, and caused mass panic across the south of the country. This followed days of strikes against Hezbollah commanders and a surprise attack on Hezbollah personnel by triggering the explosion of thousands of low-tech communications devices like… Continue reading Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?
Assessing Qatar’s Deepening Ties to Iraqi Kurdistan
Over the past year, Qatar and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq have ramped up their relations. Under Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has prioritized improved diplomatic and economic ties to the Gulf. That has included expanded trade with Doha, particularly in agriculture. Erbil and the Gulf states are also improving their… Continue reading Assessing Qatar’s Deepening Ties to Iraqi Kurdistan
Sudan’s Dam Disaster: Where Climate Change Meets War
The deadly collapse of a dam in Sudan following torrential rains has highlighted the country’s perilous position at the nexus of a devastating conflict and the climate crisis. The Arbaat Dam burst on August 25, destroying 20 villages and severely damaging dozens more, displacing thousands of people and cutting off critical supply routes. The flooding,… Continue reading Sudan’s Dam Disaster: Where Climate Change Meets War
As Mainstream Media Fails Gaza, Social Media Fights to Tell the Real Story
The war on Gaza which erupted in October has captured global attention due to the significant humanitarian cost, extensive infrastructure damage, and high casualty figures. According to UNICEF, tens of thousands of people have been killed in the past 10 months, including more than 14,000 children. Many more have been seriously injured or remain missing under… Continue reading As Mainstream Media Fails Gaza, Social Media Fights to Tell the Real Story
Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?
Cooperation between China and the United States in the Middle East has become a common topic of discussion between academics and experts these days. The two great powers have vested interests in the region that are jeopardized by its chronic instability and the growing threat of regional war. Cooperation between the two should be a… Continue reading Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?
Trump Redux Could Bring in the Law of Unintended Consequences
One hundred days ahead of elections in November, former U.S. president Donald Trump is polling strongly despite the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat candidate. What would the implications be for us in the Gulf and around the world of a Trump presidency redux? From public statements and his record in the… Continue reading Trump Redux Could Bring in the Law of Unintended Consequences
Middle East NATO Office and Regional Security
During its seventy-fifth annual summit, in July of this year, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) announced plans to open its first Middle East liaison office in Jordan. Amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, NATO’s decision to open this office cements Western powers’ vested interests in the Middle East… Continue reading Middle East NATO Office and Regional Security
Gaza War Creates Dilemmas for Bahrain’s Leadership
Four years ago this month, Bahrain joined its ally the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in formalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. After signing the Abraham Accords at the White House on September 15, 2020, Bahrain and Israel opened embassies, signed numerous bilateral agreements, established business contacts and launched direct commercial travel. Yet Bahrain, like other Arab… Continue reading Gaza War Creates Dilemmas for Bahrain’s Leadership
What Algeria’s Upcoming Elections Mean for the Next Five Years
On September 7, Algerians will head to the polls to elect their president. The outcome, however, is already a foregone conclusion. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, running for his second term, is certain to win. Tebboune’s continued rule is assured because the military, the true power brokers in Algeria, have deemed him a suitable figurehead. His initial… Continue reading What Algeria’s Upcoming Elections Mean for the Next Five Years
How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War
For weeks, the Middle East has been on edge as Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah prepare to retaliate against Israel for assassinating two high-level figures in their respective capitals, Tehran and Beirut. Frantic diplomacy and renewed momentum around Gaza ceasefire negotiations initially delayed the response, which has the potential to push the region over the brink… Continue reading How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War
Libya’s Central Bank Crisis Reflects Its Broken System
Libya’s latest political standoff, this time over who should head the country’s central bank, has once again highlighted the chronic dysfunction that has plagued the country since the 2011 overthrow of Moammar Gaddafi. Libya’s political economy, militarized and bedeviled by foreign interference, is broken: unsuitable even for Libya’s rival leaders, incapable of constraining them, and… Continue reading Libya’s Central Bank Crisis Reflects Its Broken System
Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?
![Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in south Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 19, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by RABIH DAHER / AFP) / The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by RABIH DAHER has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [June 19] instead of [June 8]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require.](https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/AFP__20240619__34XG8W8__v9__HighRes__CorrectionTopshotLebanonIsraelPalestinianConfli-1568x1045.jpg)
In a speech a week after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, the Lebanese movement’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah remarked that “the resistance is not interested in using any victory over Israel for domestic political purposes.” Ten months into Israel’s war of annihilation against the Gaza Strip and its campaign of killings in the… Continue reading Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?
Border Crossing Struggle Reflects Chronic Instability in Western Libya
Nearly four months after it closed due to armed clashes between rival Libyan groups, the Ras Ajdir crossing with Tunisia finally reopened on July 1. Located 170 kilometers (105 miles) west of war-torn Libya’s capital, Tripoli, the main land crossing into its western neighbor is a vital lifeline for trade—both official and illicit. But it… Continue reading Border Crossing Struggle Reflects Chronic Instability in Western Libya
How Tunisia’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Putting Its Next Election into Question
On August 5, a Tunisian court sentenced four potential presidential candidates on charges of buying endorsements and banned them from running in the upcoming elections slated for October 6. Among the four were the prominent politician and former Ennahda leader Abdellatif Mekki and the activist and TV host Nizar Chaari. In addition, the key opposition… Continue reading How Tunisia’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Putting Its Next Election into Question
Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation
Despite renewed international mediation efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah insists that it will respond forcefully to Israel’s assassination of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in the movement’s stronghold in southern Beirut. Since Shukr’s killing, and that of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, outside actors have stepped up efforts to… Continue reading Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation
Torture Camp Protests Expose Depth of Palestinian Dehumanization in Israel
On the morning of Monday, July 29, a contingent of Israel’s military police—the agency responsible for policing the security forces—arrived at Sde Teiman, an Israeli military base in the Negev Desert that now serves as a detention center for Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. The military police had come to arrest nine military reservists who… Continue reading Torture Camp Protests Expose Depth of Palestinian Dehumanization in Israel
Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar
On August 6, Hamas announced that its Shura Council had appointed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the movement in Gaza, as the new head of the group’s politburo. The decision came a week after Israel assassinated Hamas’ previous political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. In this interview, Beverley Milton-Edwards, co-author of Hamas: The Quest for… Continue reading Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar
Biden vs Harris on the Middle East: Same dance, different steps
The 2024 US election year has been one of the most tumultuous on record. The past two months have seen a shockingly lacklustre performance from President Joe Biden on the debate stage and his subsequent withdrawal from the ticket, an assassination attempt on former President and current Republican nominee Donald Trump, and the elevation of Vice President… Continue reading Biden vs Harris on the Middle East: Same dance, different steps
Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance
The ongoing Israeli war on Gaza is seen by the Jordanian government and public as an existential threat. Despite credible accusations of genocide, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prolonging, expanding, and escalating the offensive, which has led to mounting pressure on neighboring Jordan. From the potential forced displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank… Continue reading Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance
How Big a Role Will Gaza Play in the U.S. Election?
One of the great ironies of American politics is that despite the country’s immense power and influence in the world, U.S. foreign policy and international affairs hardly factor into the calculus of most American voters. The 2024 presidential race may be different, however. Since October 7, 2023, the Hamas-led attack on Israel, and Israel’s catastrophic… Continue reading How Big a Role Will Gaza Play in the U.S. Election?