For decades, Iran warned that a major attack on its territory would put transit through the Strait of Hormuz at risk. Eight months into the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, Tehran has not only made good on that threat by severely restricting traffic through the waterway. It is also reshaping how the Strait will be managed… Continue reading Does Iran’s Hormuz Gambit Signal a Desire to Dominate the Gulf?
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Military Victory Alone Cannot End the Iran War
Various levers of pressure are still at play in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, notably Tehran’s ability to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or to strike American bases and critical infrastructure throughout the region. While Washington may be able to deliver a decisive military blow against Iran, what is less certain is whether… Continue reading Military Victory Alone Cannot End the Iran War
Cables in the Crosshairs: Defending the Gulf’s Digital Transformation
Recent Iranian threats against the Gulf digital infrastructure highlight the critical need for Gulf states to safeguard their investments in a future economy built on Artificial Intelligence and data processing. Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official Yadollah Javani said last month that seven internet cables passing beneath the Strait of Hormuz could become targets… Continue reading Cables in the Crosshairs: Defending the Gulf’s Digital Transformation
The Middle East After the Midterms: Escalation or Settlement
The U.S. midterm elections were less a conventional contest for congressional seats than a referendum on President Donald Trump’s domestic and foreign policies. The Democrats seized control of both the House and the Senate, with breakthroughs in states and regions that had long been considered Republican strongholds. This has raised pressing questions over Washington’s trajectory… Continue reading The Middle East After the Midterms: Escalation or Settlement
Trump’s Midterm Rout and the Uncertain Future of the Iran War
The American public has delivered a crushing verdict on Donald Trump’s second-term presidency so far, handing Democrats an historic victory that swept Republicans from control of both houses of Congress. The scale and scope of the defeat were stunning. Democrats won Senate races in deep Republican strongholds like Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina—in some cases… Continue reading Trump’s Midterm Rout and the Uncertain Future of the Iran War
Going Nuclear: A Political Failure and an Irrational Option
It is the height of political and military failure when a state with the world’s biggest arsenal and its most advanced technology concludes that deploying a nuclear weapon—even of limited yield—could resolve a political crisis or war that conventional weaponry could not settle. This is not merely a dangerous idea. It marks a resounding collapse… Continue reading Going Nuclear: A Political Failure and an Irrational Option
U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Against the Electoral Clock
The U.S. midterm elections slated for November 3 constitute a critical temporal threshold in the U.S.-Iranian confrontation. Although President Donald Trump has repeatedly invoked the elections as an inflection point in the war’s trajectory, their significance lies less in setting a deadline for settlement than in potentially changing the incentives governing military escalation. The period… Continue reading U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Against the Electoral Clock
Maritime Disruptions Are Creating a New Economics of Connectivity
The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated the danger of relying heavily on a single maritime corridor. But the problem extends beyond Hormuz. Ongoing insecurity in the Red Sea and Black Sea means that several routes carrying the world’s energy, food, and goods are under pressure at the same time. When… Continue reading Maritime Disruptions Are Creating a New Economics of Connectivity
Spending vs. Effectiveness: The Saudi Defense Dilemma
When a missile struck the passenger terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on October 10, killing 13 people, followed by another projectile that hit the same terminal the next day, an old question resurfaced: having spent tens of billions of dollars on armaments, what has Saudi Arabia actually bought? While the loss of… Continue reading Spending vs. Effectiveness: The Saudi Defense Dilemma
In Search of a New Order: Arab Options and Gulf Security
In its September/October issue, Foreign Affairs published two different interpretations of the region’s future: “The End of the American Middle East,” by Marc Lynch, and “The New Old Middle East,” by F. Gregory Gause III. These perspectives have implications beyond the immediate impact of today’s confrontations. Has the order that governed the Middle East since… Continue reading In Search of a New Order: Arab Options and Gulf Security
Can Pakistan Navigate the Mecca Agreement’s First Critical Test?
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement—recently renamed the Mecca Defense Alliance—has quickly moved from a political declaration to an operational test. On October 5, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye agreed to implement their collective-defense commitments and prepare the rapid deployment of agreed forces and capabilities to the Saudi Kingdom. The decision came amid escalating attacks from… Continue reading Can Pakistan Navigate the Mecca Agreement’s First Critical Test?
Israeli Elections are Wide Open, But Strategic Choices are Narrower than Ever
With Israel’s October 27 election approaching, voters face a consequential choice over who should govern the country, but a less obvious one over the direction in which it should go. The main opposition parties are campaigning against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership and record, promising greater competence, institutional repair, and improved relations with international partners.… Continue reading Israeli Elections are Wide Open, But Strategic Choices are Narrower than Ever
Two Decades of Crisis Erode the Arab Middle Class
For decades, the middle class has served as the backbone of stability in Arab societies. It is the class that produces the teachers, doctors, engineers, civil servants and small-scale entrepreneurs whose income allows local markets and businesses to flourish. However, since the turn of the millennium, it has faced successive crises, from the domestic upheavals… Continue reading Two Decades of Crisis Erode the Arab Middle Class
How the Houthis Built a Wider Arsenal
The October 10, 2026, attack on King Khalid International Airport, and the casualties it caused, reveal how far the Houthi threat to Saudi Arabia has evolved. Described as the deadliest attack on the kingdom in more than a decade, it marks the latest stage in a military transformation that began 22 years ago in the… Continue reading How the Houthis Built a Wider Arsenal
The Global Security Forum: From Protective Guarantees to Self-Reliance
Gulf states today face a security dilemma that is less about their advanced arsenals or the foreign military bases on their soil than about the authority to make security-related decisions. Who holds the power to decide when to wage war, when interests diverge and external guarantees are subject to the calculations of major powers? For… Continue reading The Global Security Forum: From Protective Guarantees to Self-Reliance
Can Gulf Investors Make Sustainable Mining Their Edge in Africa?
Critical minerals took center stage in global diplomacy this September. At the BRICS summit in New Delhi, whose 11 members include the United Arab Emirates, leaders called for “reliable, responsible, diversified, resilient, fair, sustainable, and just” critical mineral supply chains that preserve the sovereign rights of resource-rich countries. Ten days later, at the United Nations… Continue reading Can Gulf Investors Make Sustainable Mining Their Edge in Africa?
Gulf States Should Shift from Buyers to Builders in East Asia AI Partnerships
On September 2, South Korea’s AI and software industry association announced that Aramco Digital, the digital arm of energy giant Saudi Aramco, had completed an industrial AI trial with seven Korean companies. The trial linked Korean AI models and chips with cloud infrastructure to test how engineering drawings and documents could be interpreted and turned into three-dimensional… Continue reading Gulf States Should Shift from Buyers to Builders in East Asia AI Partnerships
Houthi Attacks and Changing Rules of Engagement
The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a deadly strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on October 10, mark a dangerous escalation. The confrontation has become more than an extension of the war in Yemen. It can no longer be understood as a limited military clash between a state and an armed group.… Continue reading Houthi Attacks and Changing Rules of Engagement
Iraq’s Contested Sovereignty After the U.S. Military Withdrawal
On September 30, 2026, the last U.S.-led coalition troops departed Erbil air base in northern Iraq, ending the latest chapter of a military presence in the country that began with the 2003 invasion, briefly ended in 2011, and resumed in 2014 to fight the Islamic State. Baghdad celebrated, Washington claimed victory, and Iran-aligned factions rejoiced.… Continue reading Iraq’s Contested Sovereignty After the U.S. Military Withdrawal
Who Gets to Write the Gulf’s Postwar Navigation Rules?
In mid-September, Saudi officials postponed a meeting that was set to be held with their Iranian counterparts in Salalah, Oman, to discuss reopening transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s foreign minister said the meeting had been postponed “in the interest of consensus,” as the focus of ongoing talks between Muscat and Tehran has shifted… Continue reading Who Gets to Write the Gulf’s Postwar Navigation Rules?
Why Climate Finance Mechanisms Are Widening the MENA Region’s Vulnerability Gap
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long identified the region as a climate hotspot, pointing to severe water scarcity, rising temperatures, and the vulnerability of coastal areas and major river systems, including the Nile and Tigris-Euphrates. Yet… Continue reading Why Climate Finance Mechanisms Are Widening the MENA Region’s Vulnerability Gap
America’s Dilemma in the Middle East
For over a decade, the U.S. Mideast policy has been trapped in a vicious cycle. Every administration that enters the White House declares, in one way or another, that the region is no longer a priority, and that the future lies in Asia and the Indo-Pacific—the arena of great-power competition with China, as well as… Continue reading America’s Dilemma in the Middle East
Mediation for Long-Term Stability: A Vision for Gulf Security
With indirect talks between Washington and Tehran stalling and tensions rising around the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states face tough choices with far-reaching implications that go beyond threats to energy supplies or increased transport and insurance costs, extending to cities, critical infrastructure and national economies. As Qatar and Oman intensify their mediation efforts, the Gulf… Continue reading Mediation for Long-Term Stability: A Vision for Gulf Security
Most Lebanese Reject Sectarian Rule. What’s Preventing Change?
Lebanon’s sectarian political system has survived civil war, economic collapse, and repeated waves of popular protest. Yet its endurance masks a striking contradiction: Most Lebanese appear to reject its organizing principles, but few are willing to take the risks required to challenge it. A nationally representative survey of 3,000 Lebanese citizens conducted by the authors… Continue reading Most Lebanese Reject Sectarian Rule. What’s Preventing Change?
Hybrid Warfare: From Europe to the Middle East
Five years in, the Russia-Ukraine war has evolved into a protracted, costly confrontation that has drained the military and economic resources of both belligerents. Yet neither side has fully managed to impose its will on its adversary. This prolonged war of attrition is also defining the nature of the hybrid warfare that dominates today’s strategic… Continue reading Hybrid Warfare: From Europe to the Middle East
Facing the AI Challenge in Journalism
Media outlets face a challenge that goes beyond simply choosing between adopting or rejecting Artificial Intelligence (AI). Outlets are faced with designing a system that integrates digital infrastructure with professional standards. Qatar appears well-positioned for this task, thanks to its digital infrastructure, research investments, and the regional and international presence of its media. Qatar launched… Continue reading Facing the AI Challenge in Journalism
Yemen Shines Spotlight on Mecca Agreement Moving from Promise to Practice
The recent escalation around Saudi Arabia and Yemen has transformed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement from an ambitious political declaration into an immediate test of regional security cooperation. Signed on August 7 by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan, the pact was presented as a significant step toward a more autonomous and institutionalized form of collective… Continue reading Yemen Shines Spotlight on Mecca Agreement Moving from Promise to Practice
Lebanon’s Camps and Palestinian Legitimacy
The most obvious places to assess the implications of these elections are Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza, where the results would directly shape political authority, government, and institutions. But viewed from Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee camps, the elections reveal another, perhaps more complex, dimension. It is important to distinguish between two separate but interconnected electoral… Continue reading Lebanon’s Camps and Palestinian Legitimacy
What Comes After Bab al-Mandab?
In August, the Muslim holy city of Mecca lent its name to a mutual defense pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan. Just weeks later, air-raid sirens were sounding in the same city as missiles and drones launched from Yemen allegedly approached—an interval short enough to expose the distance between the security architecture Saudi… Continue reading What Comes After Bab al-Mandab?
The UN and the Fracturing of the World Order
The UN General Assembly convened its 81st session under the title “Restoring Trust, Managing Transformation: A United Nations That Delivers for All”, which is less of a diplomatic slogan than an acknowledgment of crisis. The world body faces a growing dilemma: a declining confidence in the international order and the UN’s ability to uphold the… Continue reading The UN and the Fracturing of the World Order
Bab al-Mandab and Yemen’s Dangerous Moment
The rapid takeover of Yemen’s entire western coast and major islands in a matter of days by Ansar Allah, widely known as the Houthis, is an alarming though not surprising development. Its most consequential implication is that Iran and its regional allies have strengthened their hold over the Middle East’s two most strategic maritime chokepoints,… Continue reading Bab al-Mandab and Yemen’s Dangerous Moment
Bab Al-Mandab Tests the Region’s Security Architecture
The Houthis’ advance on the key port city of Mocha, which severed the main road connecting Taiz to the Red Sea, has transformed the coast from another battleground in a domestic conflict into an integral element of security in the Red Sea, the Gulf and beyond. The escalation consolidated Houthi control over the Bab al-Mandab… Continue reading Bab Al-Mandab Tests the Region’s Security Architecture
Iran Is Battered, but Not on the Brink of Collapse
Six months of war have left Iran economically battered, its society exhausted, and its politics more conflicted than before. But the country is neither on the verge of collapse, as repeatedly predicted by its adversaries, nor the bastion of unity and stability portrayed by the Islamic Republic itself. The political, economic and social picture inside… Continue reading Iran Is Battered, but Not on the Brink of Collapse
The Gulf’s New, Evolving Layers of Security
Gulf security has entered a new era that has exposed the fragility of traditional arrangements and external guarantees. Today’s security calculus involves a combination of pragmatic hedging, localized capabilities and diplomatic channels to manage escalation. Iran’s attacks on the GCC states have demonstrated that regional security can no longer be outsourced, that missiles and drones… Continue reading The Gulf’s New, Evolving Layers of Security
The Gulf Caught Between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab
A development that was a mere strategic hypothetical a few weeks ago has now become a dangerous reality on the ground. The Houthis’ rapid advance along Yemen’s western coast, in a push to seize control of Mocha, Dhubab and the island of Mayyun (or Perim) at the mouth of Bab al-Mandab, signals a qualitative shift… Continue reading The Gulf Caught Between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab
The End of Saudi Restraint in Iraq
On the night of July 28, Saudi Arabian and American warplanes struck positions of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—an umbrella organization of mostly Shia paramilitary groups—across seven provinces, from Nineveh to Basra. At least 20 fighters were killed, among them at least five Iranians, and 32 were wounded. Riyadh said the strikes were an answer to… Continue reading The End of Saudi Restraint in Iraq
Will AIPAC’s Declining Electoral Influence Shift U.S. Foreign Policy?
In the United States, electoral primaries—where political parties decide who will run in general elections for political office—are rarely referendums on the country’s foreign policy. Yet the 2026 Democratic Party primary cycle was different, as a growing number of congressional districts became battlegrounds for issues including the U.S.-Israel relationship, the genocide in Gaza, and foreign… Continue reading Will AIPAC’s Declining Electoral Influence Shift U.S. Foreign Policy?
Hili Forum 2026: Shaping the Post-War Gulf
The significance of the third Hili Forum—convening in Abu Dhabi on September 7-8 under the theme “Gulf at Crossroads: Conflict, Consequences and Course Correction”—stems from the exceptional timing of the event. The region remains mired in one of its most strategically ambiguous moments in decades, amid rapid transformations. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran remains unresolved—politically… Continue reading Hili Forum 2026: Shaping the Post-War Gulf
What Syria Exposes About Turkish-Israeli Competition
Israel’s decision to strike a Syrian airbase at Abu al-Duhur on August 18—after Syrian officials reported, and Türkiye later denied, that a Turkish military delegation had visited the facility—provided the latest evidence of a deepening rivalry between the two powers across a region in flux. Both Israel and Türkiye have expanded their footprints inside Syria… Continue reading What Syria Exposes About Turkish-Israeli Competition
When It Comes to US Security Arrangements, Gulf States Suffer an Agency Deficit
Months of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states hosting U.S. military installations, have reframed the principal question confronting Gulf security. It is no longer simply whether alliances can deter aggression, but whether they offer sufficient agency to shape the conditions under which deterrence succeeds, fails, or gives way to… Continue reading When It Comes to US Security Arrangements, Gulf States Suffer an Agency Deficit
Türkiye’s Calculus in Lebanon: A Cautious Strategic Presence
For the past two decades, Lebanon has been of limited strategic importance for Türkiye, notwithstanding Turkish development projects—especially in Beirut and the North—and efforts to foster diplomatic ties with the Lebanese state and balanced relations with Lebanon’s various political factions. Türkiye has not viewed Lebanon as a primary sphere of influence, in contrast to Syria,… Continue reading Türkiye’s Calculus in Lebanon: A Cautious Strategic Presence
How Ideological-Authoritarian Regimes Collapse
The strength of ideological-authoritarian regimes is usually measured against their tangible capabilities: military arsenals, missile and nuclear programs, security agencies and regional proxies. Yet their collapse does not always stem from the weakening of these foundations. Rather, regimes often succumb to a silent erosion of chains of command, networks of vested interests, and the loyalties… Continue reading How Ideological-Authoritarian Regimes Collapse
To Provide Justice, Syria Must Pursue Accountability and Not Revenge
On August 11, 2026, a Syrian court sentenced former president Bashar al-Assad and his brother Maher to death in absentia for crimes including murder, torture, arbitrary detention, and crimes against humanity committed during the country’s nearly 14-year conflict. Assad’s cousin and former security official, Atef Najib, was tried in person and sentenced to death, while… Continue reading To Provide Justice, Syria Must Pursue Accountability and Not Revenge
The Pressures Behind Morocco’s Ceuta Crisis
On July 30, approximately 72,000 people attempted to cross from Morocco into Ceuta, an enclave of Spain on the North African coast. People seeking to migrate to Europe have long sought to breach Ceuta’s heavily fortified borders, but this was the largest and deadliest crossing in the territory’s history, with 88 people perishing in the… Continue reading The Pressures Behind Morocco’s Ceuta Crisis
Strategy Without Gains: How Iran Squandered its Regional Clout
Iran has built a security doctrine on shifting battles outside its borders, encircling adversaries with proxies and avoiding direct confrontation whenever possible. The test of this strategy is whether it can translate clout into security and sustainable gains at a reasonable cost. Yet from Syria to Yemen, Iran’s influence has entailed staggering losses, while its… Continue reading Strategy Without Gains: How Iran Squandered its Regional Clout
Why Has the Price of Oil Remained Below War-Time Expectations?
On March 31, the global oil benchmark Brent crude traded at a high of $126.69, and Fereidun Fesharaki, the chairman emeritus of a global energy consultancy, told Bloomberg that a prolonged near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz would put the price at $150 to $200 per barrel within weeks. Similarly, banking giant JPMorgan modeled the… Continue reading Why Has the Price of Oil Remained Below War-Time Expectations?
Diplomacy Cannot Work with Mediators Under Fire
One of the most dangerous developments in the contemporary Middle East is not the proliferation of conflicts but the deliberate erosion of the diplomatic space required to end them. Wars eventually require negotiations, and even governments committed to maximalist positions seek intermediaries to convey messages they cannot exchange directly. Yet the region is witnessing a… Continue reading Diplomacy Cannot Work with Mediators Under Fire
As Iran War Spreads, Baghdad’s Slow Response Risks Unwanted Entanglement
The ongoing military escalation between Washington and Tehran could be a prelude to an open-ended confrontation with even more dangerous regional consequences. Such a prospect should compel regional states to raise their level of preparedness to protect their political, economic, and security interests. Yet Baghdad—the capital most exposed to the repercussions of these developments—remains governed… Continue reading As Iran War Spreads, Baghdad’s Slow Response Risks Unwanted Entanglement
The Mecca Agreement: From Imported Security to Regional Joint Security
The extent of regional and international media coverage of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan reflects profound shifts in regional power balances. The new partnership raises questions well beyond the text of the agreement, and prompts an examination of the security trajectories that will shape the future of the Middle… Continue reading The Mecca Agreement: From Imported Security to Regional Joint Security
The Mecca Agreement: From Diversifying Alliances to Regional Strategic Balance
The Middle East has reached a point where it can no longer sustain a security framework governed by a “single ally.” Nor can it afford to place its security at the mercy of major powers, whose priorities shift with changes in leadership, shifts in interests, or the outbreak of war. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement… Continue reading The Mecca Agreement: From Diversifying Alliances to Regional Strategic Balance