On September 2, South Korea’s AI and software industry association announced that Aramco Digital, the digital arm of energy giant Saudi Aramco, had completed an industrial AI trial with seven Korean companies. The trial linked Korean AI models and chips with cloud infrastructure to test how engineering drawings and documents could be interpreted and turned into three-dimensional… Continue reading Gulf States Should Shift from Buyers to Builders in East Asia AI Partnerships
Blog Category: Home Featured Blog
Houthi Attacks and Changing Rules of Engagement
The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a deadly strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on October 10, mark a dangerous escalation. The confrontation has become more than an extension of the war in Yemen. It can no longer be understood as a limited military clash between a state and an armed group.… Continue reading Houthi Attacks and Changing Rules of Engagement
Iraq’s Contested Sovereignty After the U.S. Military Withdrawal
On September 30, 2026, the last U.S.-led coalition troops departed Erbil air base in northern Iraq, ending the latest chapter of a military presence in the country that began with the 2003 invasion, briefly ended in 2011, and resumed in 2014 to fight the Islamic State. Baghdad celebrated, Washington claimed victory, and Iran-aligned factions rejoiced.… Continue reading Iraq’s Contested Sovereignty After the U.S. Military Withdrawal
Who Gets to Write the Gulf’s Postwar Navigation Rules?
In mid-September, Saudi officials postponed a meeting that was set to be held with their Iranian counterparts in Salalah, Oman, to discuss reopening transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s foreign minister said the meeting had been postponed “in the interest of consensus,” as the focus of ongoing talks between Muscat and Tehran has shifted… Continue reading Who Gets to Write the Gulf’s Postwar Navigation Rules?
Why Climate Finance Mechanisms Are Widening the MENA Region’s Vulnerability Gap
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long identified the region as a climate hotspot, pointing to severe water scarcity, rising temperatures, and the vulnerability of coastal areas and major river systems, including the Nile and Tigris-Euphrates. Yet… Continue reading Why Climate Finance Mechanisms Are Widening the MENA Region’s Vulnerability Gap
America’s Dilemma in the Middle East
For over a decade, the U.S. Mideast policy has been trapped in a vicious cycle. Every administration that enters the White House declares, in one way or another, that the region is no longer a priority, and that the future lies in Asia and the Indo-Pacific—the arena of great-power competition with China, as well as… Continue reading America’s Dilemma in the Middle East
Mediation for Long-Term Stability: A Vision for Gulf Security
With indirect talks between Washington and Tehran stalling and tensions rising around the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states face tough choices with far-reaching implications that go beyond threats to energy supplies or increased transport and insurance costs, extending to cities, critical infrastructure and national economies. As Qatar and Oman intensify their mediation efforts, the Gulf… Continue reading Mediation for Long-Term Stability: A Vision for Gulf Security
Most Lebanese Reject Sectarian Rule. What’s Preventing Change?
Lebanon’s sectarian political system has survived civil war, economic collapse, and repeated waves of popular protest. Yet its endurance masks a striking contradiction: Most Lebanese appear to reject its organizing principles, but few are willing to take the risks required to challenge it. A nationally representative survey of 3,000 Lebanese citizens conducted by the authors… Continue reading Most Lebanese Reject Sectarian Rule. What’s Preventing Change?
Facing the AI Challenge in Journalism
Media outlets face a challenge that goes beyond simply choosing between adopting or rejecting Artificial Intelligence (AI). Outlets are faced with designing a system that integrates digital infrastructure with professional standards. Qatar appears well-positioned for this task, thanks to its digital infrastructure, research investments, and the regional and international presence of its media. Qatar launched… Continue reading Facing the AI Challenge in Journalism
Yemen Shines Spotlight on Mecca Agreement Moving from Promise to Practice
The recent escalation around Saudi Arabia and Yemen has transformed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement from an ambitious political declaration into an immediate test of regional security cooperation. Signed on August 7 by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan, the pact was presented as a significant step toward a more autonomous and institutionalized form of collective… Continue reading Yemen Shines Spotlight on Mecca Agreement Moving from Promise to Practice
Lebanon’s Camps and Palestinian Legitimacy
The most obvious places to assess the implications of these elections are Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza, where the results would directly shape political authority, government, and institutions. But viewed from Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee camps, the elections reveal another, perhaps more complex, dimension. It is important to distinguish between two separate but interconnected electoral… Continue reading Lebanon’s Camps and Palestinian Legitimacy
What Comes After Bab al-Mandab?
In August, the Muslim holy city of Mecca lent its name to a mutual defense pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan. Just weeks later, air-raid sirens were sounding in the same city as missiles and drones launched from Yemen allegedly approached—an interval short enough to expose the distance between the security architecture Saudi… Continue reading What Comes After Bab al-Mandab?
The UN and the Fracturing of the World Order
The UN General Assembly convened its 81st session under the title “Restoring Trust, Managing Transformation: A United Nations That Delivers for All”, which is less of a diplomatic slogan than an acknowledgment of crisis. The world body faces a growing dilemma: a declining confidence in the international order and the UN’s ability to uphold the… Continue reading The UN and the Fracturing of the World Order
Bab al-Mandab and Yemen’s Dangerous Moment
The rapid takeover of Yemen’s entire western coast and major islands in a matter of days by Ansar Allah, widely known as the Houthis, is an alarming though not surprising development. Its most consequential implication is that Iran and its regional allies have strengthened their hold over the Middle East’s two most strategic maritime chokepoints,… Continue reading Bab al-Mandab and Yemen’s Dangerous Moment
Bab Al-Mandab Tests the Region’s Security Architecture
The Houthis’ advance on the key port city of Mocha, which severed the main road connecting Taiz to the Red Sea, has transformed the coast from another battleground in a domestic conflict into an integral element of security in the Red Sea, the Gulf and beyond. The escalation consolidated Houthi control over the Bab al-Mandab… Continue reading Bab Al-Mandab Tests the Region’s Security Architecture
Iran Is Battered, but Not on the Brink of Collapse
Six months of war have left Iran economically battered, its society exhausted, and its politics more conflicted than before. But the country is neither on the verge of collapse, as repeatedly predicted by its adversaries, nor the bastion of unity and stability portrayed by the Islamic Republic itself. The political, economic and social picture inside… Continue reading Iran Is Battered, but Not on the Brink of Collapse
The Gulf’s New, Evolving Layers of Security
Gulf security has entered a new era that has exposed the fragility of traditional arrangements and external guarantees. Today’s security calculus involves a combination of pragmatic hedging, localized capabilities and diplomatic channels to manage escalation. Iran’s attacks on the GCC states have demonstrated that regional security can no longer be outsourced, that missiles and drones… Continue reading The Gulf’s New, Evolving Layers of Security
The Gulf Caught Between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab
A development that was a mere strategic hypothetical a few weeks ago has now become a dangerous reality on the ground. The Houthis’ rapid advance along Yemen’s western coast, in a push to seize control of Mocha, Dhubab and the island of Mayyun (or Perim) at the mouth of Bab al-Mandab, signals a qualitative shift… Continue reading The Gulf Caught Between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab
The End of Saudi Restraint in Iraq
On the night of July 28, Saudi Arabian and American warplanes struck positions of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—an umbrella organization of mostly Shia paramilitary groups—across seven provinces, from Nineveh to Basra. At least 20 fighters were killed, among them at least five Iranians, and 32 were wounded. Riyadh said the strikes were an answer to… Continue reading The End of Saudi Restraint in Iraq
Will AIPAC’s Declining Electoral Influence Shift U.S. Foreign Policy?
In the United States, electoral primaries—where political parties decide who will run in general elections for political office—are rarely referendums on the country’s foreign policy. Yet the 2026 Democratic Party primary cycle was different, as a growing number of congressional districts became battlegrounds for issues including the U.S.-Israel relationship, the genocide in Gaza, and foreign… Continue reading Will AIPAC’s Declining Electoral Influence Shift U.S. Foreign Policy?
Hili Forum 2026: Shaping the Post-War Gulf
The significance of the third Hili Forum—convening in Abu Dhabi on September 7-8 under the theme “Gulf at Crossroads: Conflict, Consequences and Course Correction”—stems from the exceptional timing of the event. The region remains mired in one of its most strategically ambiguous moments in decades, amid rapid transformations. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran remains unresolved—politically… Continue reading Hili Forum 2026: Shaping the Post-War Gulf
What Syria Exposes About Turkish-Israeli Competition
Israel’s decision to strike a Syrian airbase at Abu al-Duhur on August 18—after Syrian officials reported, and Türkiye later denied, that a Turkish military delegation had visited the facility—provided the latest evidence of a deepening rivalry between the two powers across a region in flux. Both Israel and Türkiye have expanded their footprints inside Syria… Continue reading What Syria Exposes About Turkish-Israeli Competition
When It Comes to US Security Arrangements, Gulf States Suffer an Agency Deficit
Months of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states hosting U.S. military installations, have reframed the principal question confronting Gulf security. It is no longer simply whether alliances can deter aggression, but whether they offer sufficient agency to shape the conditions under which deterrence succeeds, fails, or gives way to… Continue reading When It Comes to US Security Arrangements, Gulf States Suffer an Agency Deficit
Türkiye’s Calculus in Lebanon: A Cautious Strategic Presence
For the past two decades, Lebanon has been of limited strategic importance for Türkiye, notwithstanding Turkish development projects—especially in Beirut and the North—and efforts to foster diplomatic ties with the Lebanese state and balanced relations with Lebanon’s various political factions. Türkiye has not viewed Lebanon as a primary sphere of influence, in contrast to Syria,… Continue reading Türkiye’s Calculus in Lebanon: A Cautious Strategic Presence
How Ideological-Authoritarian Regimes Collapse
The strength of ideological-authoritarian regimes is usually measured against their tangible capabilities: military arsenals, missile and nuclear programs, security agencies and regional proxies. Yet their collapse does not always stem from the weakening of these foundations. Rather, regimes often succumb to a silent erosion of chains of command, networks of vested interests, and the loyalties… Continue reading How Ideological-Authoritarian Regimes Collapse
To Provide Justice, Syria Must Pursue Accountability and Not Revenge
On August 11, 2026, a Syrian court sentenced former president Bashar al-Assad and his brother Maher to death in absentia for crimes including murder, torture, arbitrary detention, and crimes against humanity committed during the country’s nearly 14-year conflict. Assad’s cousin and former security official, Atef Najib, was tried in person and sentenced to death, while… Continue reading To Provide Justice, Syria Must Pursue Accountability and Not Revenge
The Pressures Behind Morocco’s Ceuta Crisis
On July 30, approximately 72,000 people attempted to cross from Morocco into Ceuta, an enclave of Spain on the North African coast. People seeking to migrate to Europe have long sought to breach Ceuta’s heavily fortified borders, but this was the largest and deadliest crossing in the territory’s history, with 88 people perishing in the… Continue reading The Pressures Behind Morocco’s Ceuta Crisis
Strategy Without Gains: How Iran Squandered its Regional Clout
Iran has built a security doctrine on shifting battles outside its borders, encircling adversaries with proxies and avoiding direct confrontation whenever possible. The test of this strategy is whether it can translate clout into security and sustainable gains at a reasonable cost. Yet from Syria to Yemen, Iran’s influence has entailed staggering losses, while its… Continue reading Strategy Without Gains: How Iran Squandered its Regional Clout
Why Has the Price of Oil Remained Below War-Time Expectations?
On March 31, the global oil benchmark Brent crude traded at a high of $126.69, and Fereidun Fesharaki, the chairman emeritus of a global energy consultancy, told Bloomberg that a prolonged near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz would put the price at $150 to $200 per barrel within weeks. Similarly, banking giant JPMorgan modeled the… Continue reading Why Has the Price of Oil Remained Below War-Time Expectations?
Diplomacy Cannot Work with Mediators Under Fire
One of the most dangerous developments in the contemporary Middle East is not the proliferation of conflicts but the deliberate erosion of the diplomatic space required to end them. Wars eventually require negotiations, and even governments committed to maximalist positions seek intermediaries to convey messages they cannot exchange directly. Yet the region is witnessing a… Continue reading Diplomacy Cannot Work with Mediators Under Fire
As Iran War Spreads, Baghdad’s Slow Response Risks Unwanted Entanglement
The ongoing military escalation between Washington and Tehran could be a prelude to an open-ended confrontation with even more dangerous regional consequences. Such a prospect should compel regional states to raise their level of preparedness to protect their political, economic, and security interests. Yet Baghdad—the capital most exposed to the repercussions of these developments—remains governed… Continue reading As Iran War Spreads, Baghdad’s Slow Response Risks Unwanted Entanglement
The Mecca Agreement: From Imported Security to Regional Joint Security
The extent of regional and international media coverage of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan reflects profound shifts in regional power balances. The new partnership raises questions well beyond the text of the agreement, and prompts an examination of the security trajectories that will shape the future of the Middle… Continue reading The Mecca Agreement: From Imported Security to Regional Joint Security
The Mecca Agreement: From Diversifying Alliances to Regional Strategic Balance
The Middle East has reached a point where it can no longer sustain a security framework governed by a “single ally.” Nor can it afford to place its security at the mercy of major powers, whose priorities shift with changes in leadership, shifts in interests, or the outbreak of war. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement… Continue reading The Mecca Agreement: From Diversifying Alliances to Regional Strategic Balance
What Is the Mecca Joint Defense Pact—and What It Is Not?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan announced a trilateral mutual defense pact signed in Mecca by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The agreement is the outcome of intensive consultations among the three countries and represents a significant step toward closer… Continue reading What Is the Mecca Joint Defense Pact—and What It Is Not?
Can PA Reform Give Palestinians a Way Out of Their Leadership Crisis?
For the first time in years, Palestinian politics is showing signs of life. On July 9, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree calling elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council — the PA’s parliament, which he dissolved in 2018 — set for November 28. Alongside a looser pledge to hold a presidential election in… Continue reading Can PA Reform Give Palestinians a Way Out of Their Leadership Crisis?
Regional Security After the Mecca Agreement
The Mecca Agreement, a defense deal signed by Riyadh, Ankara, and Islamabad on August 7, builds upon discussions apparently dating back to December 2023, as well as historical ties, shared strategic interests, and existing military cooperation. It emerges within a regional security environment characterized by multiple threats, from missile and drone attacks to terrorism, cyber-attacks, disruptions to maritime corridors, and the targeting of critical infrastructure. The agreement reflects less a response to a specific,… Continue reading Regional Security After the Mecca Agreement
How the Middle East Became Trapped in a War of Attrition
Just a few months ago, experts were predicting that Israeli-American strikes on Iran would create a new reality in the Middle East, shifting the regional balances of power and deterrence against Iran. This hypothesis was based on a clear premise: Either Tehran would be forced to retreat under the weight of its losses, or the… Continue reading How the Middle East Became Trapped in a War of Attrition
Is the Gulf Buying AI Sovereignty—or Renting It?
When the chief executive of Saudi Arabia’s state-backed Artificial Intelligence start-up HUMAIN vowed earlier this year to compress two decades of national progress into a single year of AI development, he captured the mood of a region on the move. Within weeks, Washington approved the export of tens of thousands of Nvidia’s most advanced processors to HUMAIN and its… Continue reading Is the Gulf Buying AI Sovereignty—or Renting It?
With Hormuz Blocked Again, How Effective Are the Gulf’s Bypass Routes?
To the great dismay of Gulf energy exporters and global markets alike, the Strait of Hormuz is once again blocked due to hostilities between the United States and Iran. After a brief opening of the critical commercial waterway following a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 to end the war, Tehran ordered the strait… Continue reading With Hormuz Blocked Again, How Effective Are the Gulf’s Bypass Routes?
The Post-October 7 Era: Iranian-Israeli Attrition and Saudi-Turkish Ascendancy
The Middle East has seen dramatic geopolitical shifts since October 7, 2023. From the war on Gaza to confrontations in Lebanon and Yemen, the fall of the Assad regime, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, along with Iran’s attacks on Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, interconnected conflicts have impacted not only… Continue reading The Post-October 7 Era: Iranian-Israeli Attrition and Saudi-Turkish Ascendancy
A U.S.-Iran Deal That Does Not Address Gulf Concerns Will Not Bring Stability
Although the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran has been faltering since the moment it was signed, there is no longer a question for the Gulf states over whether an agreement can be reached, but rather the nature of such an agreement. That includes not just its nuclear program but its… Continue reading A U.S.-Iran Deal That Does Not Address Gulf Concerns Will Not Bring Stability
The Gulf on the Threshold of a New Nuclear Map
The historic U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation accord signed on July 22 was reached amid efforts to bolster bilateral energy cooperation and diversify the Kingdom’s energy sources, and it includes a commitment to the highest standards of nuclear safety. But it also clearly shifts the delicate balance between the demands of nuclear non-proliferation and calculations of political… Continue reading The Gulf on the Threshold of a New Nuclear Map
Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
Despite a resumption in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, and the resulting re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and its major Gulf oil-producing rivals are in a race to boost their respective oil exports and restore or carve out their share of critical markets. This can be seen in Iran’s bid to export… Continue reading Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
The Iranian Duality the Region Must Stop Indulging
In the early hours of July 7, an anti-ship missile struck Al Rekayyat, a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tanker, as it left the Strait of Hormuz. A fire spread through the engine room, and for a few hours, the region waited to find out whether the vessel would be the latest casualty of the U.S.-Iranian war’s worst maritime incident yet. Al Rekayyat belongs to transportation firm Nakilat, majority-owned by Qatar, which has facilitated extensive negotiations between Washington and… Continue reading The Iranian Duality the Region Must Stop Indulging
Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
The U.S.-Iran war has so far failed to produce any decisive strategic outcome or end the threat hanging over the Gulf. Instead, it has ushered the region into a new phase of managed instability, characterized by cycles of escalation and de-escalation, with no clear political or military resolution in sight. The war has placed the Strait… Continue reading Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
Iran War Marks the Struggle for America’s Story at 250 Years
An anniversary is a moment for story-telling, and the U.S. loves grand stories. Yet as the country marked its 250th anniversary, the stories its leaders told were as much linked to the electoral politics of the moment as to a grand national narrative. The left condemned President Donald Trump for turning the spotlight on himself; the right accused New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani of being unpatriotic. Yet focusing on domestic politics, even in light of November’s midterm elections, ignores the broader significance of the occasion—not least, the highly contested question of how Trump’s fateful war… Continue reading Iran War Marks the Struggle for America’s Story at 250 Years
Why the U.S.-Iranian MoU Didn’t Last
The optimistic narrative regarding an imminent, lasting settlement between Tehran and Washington has evaporated. The region has reverted to the situation that prevailed at the onset of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in February: missile launches, reciprocal strikes, and an escalation that threatens the security of the Gulf and Jordan, as well as the stability of global energy markets. It is as if… Continue reading Why the U.S.-Iranian MoU Didn’t Last
Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has reminded the world that despite its digital nature, the global economy remains reliant on maritime corridors, energy markets, raw materials, and states’ ability to safeguard supply chains. Disruptions to navigation via the Strait of Hormuz and the ensuing turmoil in global markets have exposed the vulnerability of relying on a handful of strategic trade routes, demonstrating that power is measured not only by technological prowess but… Continue reading Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa
Syria Moves to Manage its Differences with Hezbollah
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani’s July 4 visit to the Lebanese capital came at a highly sensitive moment in the region. It coincided with negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, mounting pressure over Hezbollah’s weaponry, and Arab and regional maneuvering that is reshaping the balance of power in the region—all in the shadow of the transformations… Continue reading Syria Moves to Manage its Differences with Hezbollah
The 2026 World Cup and the Politics of Selective Outrage
The 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup was always going to be historic. This round of the world’s most-watched single-sport tournament was spread across three host countries and expanded to 48 participating nations for the first time. After two World Cups—Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022—which were heavily criticized by the Western media on human rights grounds and allegations of “sportswashing,” FIFA President Gianni Infantino may have hoped for… Continue reading The 2026 World Cup and the Politics of Selective Outrage