One of the most dangerous developments in the contemporary Middle East is not the proliferation of conflicts but the deliberate erosion of the diplomatic space required to end them. Wars eventually require negotiations, and even governments committed to maximalist positions seek intermediaries to convey messages they cannot exchange directly. Yet the region is witnessing a… Continue reading Diplomacy Cannot Work with Mediators Under Fire
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As Iran War Spreads, Baghdad’s Slow Response Risks Unwanted Entanglement
The ongoing military escalation between Washington and Tehran could be a prelude to an open-ended confrontation with even more dangerous regional consequences. Such a prospect should compel regional states to raise their level of preparedness to protect their political, economic, and security interests. Yet Baghdad—the capital most exposed to the repercussions of these developments—remains governed… Continue reading As Iran War Spreads, Baghdad’s Slow Response Risks Unwanted Entanglement
The Mecca Agreement: From Imported Security to Regional Joint Security
The extent of regional and international media coverage of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan reflects profound shifts in regional power balances. The new partnership raises questions well beyond the text of the agreement, and prompts an examination of the security trajectories that will shape the future of the Middle… Continue reading The Mecca Agreement: From Imported Security to Regional Joint Security
The Mecca Agreement: From Diversifying Alliances to Regional Strategic Balance
The Middle East has reached a point where it can no longer sustain a security framework governed by a “single ally.” Nor can it afford to place its security at the mercy of major powers, whose priorities shift with changes in leadership, shifts in interests, or the outbreak of war. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement… Continue reading The Mecca Agreement: From Diversifying Alliances to Regional Strategic Balance
What Is the Mecca Joint Defense Pact—and What It Is Not?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan announced a trilateral mutual defense pact signed in Mecca by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The agreement is the outcome of intensive consultations among the three countries and represents a significant step toward closer… Continue reading What Is the Mecca Joint Defense Pact—and What It Is Not?
Can PA Reform Give Palestinians a Way Out of Their Leadership Crisis?
For the first time in years, Palestinian politics is showing signs of life. On July 9, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree calling elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council — the PA’s parliament, which he dissolved in 2018 — set for November 28. Alongside a looser pledge to hold a presidential election in… Continue reading Can PA Reform Give Palestinians a Way Out of Their Leadership Crisis?
Regional Security After the Mecca Agreement
The Mecca Agreement, a defense deal signed by Riyadh, Ankara, and Islamabad on August 7, builds upon discussions apparently dating back to December 2023, as well as historical ties, shared strategic interests, and existing military cooperation. It emerges within a regional security environment characterized by multiple threats, from missile and drone attacks to terrorism, cyber-attacks, disruptions to maritime corridors, and the targeting of critical infrastructure. The agreement reflects less a response to a specific,… Continue reading Regional Security After the Mecca Agreement
How the Middle East Became Trapped in a War of Attrition
Just a few months ago, experts were predicting that Israeli-American strikes on Iran would create a new reality in the Middle East, shifting the regional balances of power and deterrence against Iran. This hypothesis was based on a clear premise: Either Tehran would be forced to retreat under the weight of its losses, or the… Continue reading How the Middle East Became Trapped in a War of Attrition
Is the Gulf Buying AI Sovereignty—or Renting It?
When the chief executive of Saudi Arabia’s state-backed Artificial Intelligence start-up HUMAIN vowed earlier this year to compress two decades of national progress into a single year of AI development, he captured the mood of a region on the move. Within weeks, Washington approved the export of tens of thousands of Nvidia’s most advanced processors to HUMAIN and its… Continue reading Is the Gulf Buying AI Sovereignty—or Renting It?
With Hormuz Blocked Again, How Effective Are the Gulf’s Bypass Routes?
To the great dismay of Gulf energy exporters and global markets alike, the Strait of Hormuz is once again blocked due to hostilities between the United States and Iran. After a brief opening of the critical commercial waterway following a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 to end the war, Tehran ordered the strait… Continue reading With Hormuz Blocked Again, How Effective Are the Gulf’s Bypass Routes?
The Post-October 7 Era: Iranian-Israeli Attrition and Saudi-Turkish Ascendancy
The Middle East has seen dramatic geopolitical shifts since October 7, 2023. From the war on Gaza to confrontations in Lebanon and Yemen, the fall of the Assad regime, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, along with Iran’s attacks on Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, interconnected conflicts have impacted not only… Continue reading The Post-October 7 Era: Iranian-Israeli Attrition and Saudi-Turkish Ascendancy
A U.S.-Iran Deal That Does Not Address Gulf Concerns Will Not Bring Stability
Although the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran has been faltering since the moment it was signed, there is no longer a question for the Gulf states over whether an agreement can be reached, but rather the nature of such an agreement. That includes not just its nuclear program but its… Continue reading A U.S.-Iran Deal That Does Not Address Gulf Concerns Will Not Bring Stability
The Gulf on the Threshold of a New Nuclear Map
The historic U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation accord signed on July 22 was reached amid efforts to bolster bilateral energy cooperation and diversify the Kingdom’s energy sources, and it includes a commitment to the highest standards of nuclear safety. But it also clearly shifts the delicate balance between the demands of nuclear non-proliferation and calculations of political… Continue reading The Gulf on the Threshold of a New Nuclear Map
Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
Despite a resumption in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, and the resulting re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and its major Gulf oil-producing rivals are in a race to boost their respective oil exports and restore or carve out their share of critical markets. This can be seen in Iran’s bid to export… Continue reading Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
The Iranian Duality the Region Must Stop Indulging
In the early hours of July 7, an anti-ship missile struck Al Rekayyat, a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tanker, as it left the Strait of Hormuz. A fire spread through the engine room, and for a few hours, the region waited to find out whether the vessel would be the latest casualty of the U.S.-Iranian war’s worst maritime incident yet. Al Rekayyat belongs to transportation firm Nakilat, majority-owned by Qatar, which has facilitated extensive negotiations between Washington and… Continue reading The Iranian Duality the Region Must Stop Indulging
Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
The U.S.-Iran war has so far failed to produce any decisive strategic outcome or end the threat hanging over the Gulf. Instead, it has ushered the region into a new phase of managed instability, characterized by cycles of escalation and de-escalation, with no clear political or military resolution in sight. The war has placed the Strait… Continue reading Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
Iran War Marks the Struggle for America’s Story at 250 Years
An anniversary is a moment for story-telling, and the U.S. loves grand stories. Yet as the country marked its 250th anniversary, the stories its leaders told were as much linked to the electoral politics of the moment as to a grand national narrative. The left condemned President Donald Trump for turning the spotlight on himself; the right accused New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani of being unpatriotic. Yet focusing on domestic politics, even in light of November’s midterm elections, ignores the broader significance of the occasion—not least, the highly contested question of how Trump’s fateful war… Continue reading Iran War Marks the Struggle for America’s Story at 250 Years
Why the U.S.-Iranian MoU Didn’t Last
The optimistic narrative regarding an imminent, lasting settlement between Tehran and Washington has evaporated. The region has reverted to the situation that prevailed at the onset of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in February: missile launches, reciprocal strikes, and an escalation that threatens the security of the Gulf and Jordan, as well as the stability of global energy markets. It is as if… Continue reading Why the U.S.-Iranian MoU Didn’t Last
Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has reminded the world that despite its digital nature, the global economy remains reliant on maritime corridors, energy markets, raw materials, and states’ ability to safeguard supply chains. Disruptions to navigation via the Strait of Hormuz and the ensuing turmoil in global markets have exposed the vulnerability of relying on a handful of strategic trade routes, demonstrating that power is measured not only by technological prowess but… Continue reading Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa
Syria Moves to Manage its Differences with Hezbollah
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani’s July 4 visit to the Lebanese capital came at a highly sensitive moment in the region. It coincided with negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, mounting pressure over Hezbollah’s weaponry, and Arab and regional maneuvering that is reshaping the balance of power in the region—all in the shadow of the transformations… Continue reading Syria Moves to Manage its Differences with Hezbollah
The 2026 World Cup and the Politics of Selective Outrage
The 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup was always going to be historic. This round of the world’s most-watched single-sport tournament was spread across three host countries and expanded to 48 participating nations for the first time. After two World Cups—Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022—which were heavily criticized by the Western media on human rights grounds and allegations of “sportswashing,” FIFA President Gianni Infantino may have hoped for… Continue reading The 2026 World Cup and the Politics of Selective Outrage
The Hormuz Blockade Experience Is Forcing Food Security Adaptation
Media coverage of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has focused overwhelmingly on the disruption of energy supplies to global markets. Yet this narrow waterway also connects Gulf fertilizer producers with farms across Africa, Asia, and beyond. The disruption of these agricultural inputs threatens to increase global hunger… Continue reading The Hormuz Blockade Experience Is Forcing Food Security Adaptation
Pakistan and Qatar’s Emergence as Key Mediators in Iran-U.S. Diplomacy
The American-Israeli war on Iran has not only reshaped the Middle East’s security landscape; it has also accelerated an important shift in regional diplomacy. Qatar has emerged from the conflict with its position as one of the region’s—and increasingly the world’s—most consequential diplomatic brokers further strengthened, while Pakistan has made a surprising but significant entry into the mediation… Continue reading Pakistan and Qatar’s Emergence as Key Mediators in Iran-U.S. Diplomacy
Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Success Is Reshaping Politics at Home
The most significant political consequence of Türkiye’s handling of the 2026 Iran war may not be what it achieved abroad, but how it continues to reshape politics at home. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerged from the crisis with enhanced regional standing after Ankara helped facilitate de-escalation efforts while maintaining relations across competing camps. At a time when the Middle East… Continue reading Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Success Is Reshaping Politics at Home
Syria’s New Energy Diplomacy Is Turning Geography into Political Capital
For much of the Assad era, Syria’s geography was viewed primarily through a military lens. Internal security and regime survival consistently took precedence over economic integration, leaving the country’s strategic location between the Gulf, Türkiye, Iraq, and the Mediterranean largely underutilized. The civil war that began in 2011 only deepened Syria’s isolation, severing trade routes,… Continue reading Syria’s New Energy Diplomacy Is Turning Geography into Political Capital
Israeli-Turkish Competition Intensifies in Syria and Beyond
During a recent television interview with Tamir Hayman, Israel’s former military intelligence chief mentioned that Israel had hoped to pressure Tehran at the outset of the war it launched with the United States in late February by instigating a Kurdish insurgency inside Iran. Hayman claimed, however, that this “centerpiece” of a wider plan to bring down the Islamic… Continue reading Israeli-Turkish Competition Intensifies in Syria and Beyond
The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
The Strait of Hormuz is back at the center of regional and international controversy—not because its geography has changed, but because Iran has pressed on with its political approach, refusing to make any tangible shift in its regional policies. Even after signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S., pledging to restore maritime traffic through the waterway within 30 days, Tehran continues to use the Strait for leverage, threatening the security of… Continue reading The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
Can the Lebanon-Israel Framework Survive Reality?
On June 26, Lebanon and Israel signed a U.S.-sponsored framework agreement in Washington aimed at ending the war across their border, organizing a gradual Israeli withdrawal, and restoring the Lebanese state’s monopoly over security decision-making and the use of force on its territory. Yet the crux of the agreement lies not in its content, but in… Continue reading Can the Lebanon-Israel Framework Survive Reality?
Can the GCC Lead in Environmentally Responsible Solar Development?
Amid the wartime focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of critical hydrocarbon supplies to global energy markets, another major transformation in the Gulf has received far less attention: the rapid expansion of renewable energy. Over the past decade, the Gulf Cooperation Council region has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing solar energy markets. Solar power now accounts for roughly half of the GCC’s energy mix, up from less than 10 percent in… Continue reading Can the GCC Lead in Environmentally Responsible Solar Development?
The U.S.-Iran Deal: Resolving the Crisis or Refinancing it?
The timing of the truce agreement between the U.S. and Iran reveals a shift in Washington’s approach to the crisis in the Gulf. The Trump administration, which initially presented its February escalation as a way to reshape the balance of power with Tehran, eventually found itself forced to contain the fire before it started to inflict deeper damage at the political, economic, and security levels. In this sense, the agreement is more of a way out of a predicament that the tools of hard power have failed to tackle, rather than the crowning of an American victory. … Continue reading The U.S.-Iran Deal: Resolving the Crisis or Refinancing it?
Gulf Confederation: From Cooperation to a Shared Destiny
In the moments of calm that follow major crises, states are not measured solely by their capacity to endure, but by their ability to redefine their roles and revive deferred strategic projects before new crises engulf them. A ceasefire is not the end of a conflict; rather, it is a critical juncture for reassessment: what has been achieved, and… Continue reading Gulf Confederation: From Cooperation to a Shared Destiny
Are UAE-Pakistan Relations Unraveling?
Over roughly the past year, a perception has taken hold in the mainstream press and on social media that Pakistan’s relations with the United Arab Emirates are in decline. Driven primarily by the notion that the UAE’s relationship with Pakistan’s rival, India, is ascendant and that Pakistan has drifted closer to Saudi Arabia, the negative… Continue reading Are UAE-Pakistan Relations Unraveling?
The U.S.-Iran Agreement: A Signature without a Handshake
The truce agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran on June 17 has sparked widespread debate over its true nature and ultimate objectives. While some view it as a significant diplomatic step that successfully averted a perilous regional confrontation, others see it as merely postponing the crisis, rather than resolving it. From both these perspectives, a key question arises: Is this an agreement that lays the foundation for a long-term stability, or merely a political truce that masks deep-seated disagreements? In one… Continue reading The U.S.-Iran Agreement: A Signature without a Handshake
Xi-Trump Summit: Navigating Rivalries Amidst Global Turbulence
When Beijing rolled out the red carpet for U.S. President Donald Trump in May, 2026, it was more than an exercise in protocol. It was a symbolic attempt to mend a fractured global order. Trump’s visit followed a significant decline in the U.S. trade deficit with China to just over $202 billion in 2025 — a 31.6% decrease from the previous year. This gave him grounds to claim that his policy of pressure on Beijing had been successful, paving the… Continue reading Xi-Trump Summit: Navigating Rivalries Amidst Global Turbulence
A Gulf NATO: The Strategic Necessity of a Collective Deterrence System
The term “Gulf NATO” is often used in political discussions as a slogan or a theoretical concept, but its roots go much deeper. The idea would not be to create a new military alliance from scratch, but rather to develop the region’s existing security structure, which emerged with the establishment of the GCC in 1981 and developed over subsequent years with the creation of the Peninsula Shield Force, the first institutional attempt to translate the concept of… Continue reading A Gulf NATO: The Strategic Necessity of a Collective Deterrence System
The Legal Mirage in the U.S. Strategy for Iranian Assets
With the United States and Iran now reaching an interim peace agreement to halt their four-month military conflict and lift the U.S. naval blockade, the path has been cleared for a 60-day negotiation window regarding Tehran’s nuclear program. Throughout the conflict, Tehran has demanded the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets as a core… Continue reading The Legal Mirage in the U.S. Strategy for Iranian Assets
Gulf Digital Sovereignty in the Age of AI Warfare
Governing an Ungovernable Space For much of modern history, a state’s global influence was measured through military power, territorial reach, international alliances, and financial clout. Today, however, the influence of states extends through digital media that shape how societies absorb information, interpret political events, and manage crises. Algorithms embedded within social media platforms and search engines… Continue reading Gulf Digital Sovereignty in the Age of AI Warfare
U.S. Bases in the GCC: A Security Model Under Attack
The U.S.-Israel war against Iran, and Tehran’s subsequent missile and drone retaliation against the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states hosting American forces, has revived a longstanding strategic question regarding the nature of U.S. military bases abroad, and whose interests they ultimately serve. It has also reopened a lively debate among Gulf analysts, policymakers, and commentators over whether the continued U.S. military footprint remains the most effective… Continue reading U.S. Bases in the GCC: A Security Model Under Attack
How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
The war in Iran marks a major inflection point in the security outlook and external partnerships of Gulf countries. In many ways, it mirrors the geopolitical awakening that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered for Europeans after 2022. Like their European counterparts, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states now face the dilemma of relying on a security partner—the United States—that remains indispensable yet increasingly… Continue reading How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
Algeria’s Chokepoint Opportunity
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has brought the Strait of Hormuz to the center of global energy politics, generating renewed concern among European governments over the vulnerabilities inherent in relying on supply routes subject to geopolitical disruption. As tanker traffic through the strait collapsed and gas prices across Europe rose by more than 70 percent in… Continue reading Algeria’s Chokepoint Opportunity
Has Anyone ‘Won’ the Iran War?
The US-Israel-Iran war has reshaped the Middle East’s balance of power, but it has not produced a strategic resolution for any of the actors involved. While both sides traded escalation with containment, Europe and China kept their focus firmly on the economic risks, managing their own exposure to the war rather than seeking to alter the course… Continue reading Has Anyone ‘Won’ the Iran War?
Can Trump Escape from a Negotiation Trap of His Own Making?
When Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—otherwise known as the Iran nuclear agreement—in 2018, he declared that his predecessor had signed “the worst deal in history” and promised to do dramatically better. It was a characteristically bold claim—and one that has since metastasized into a strategic trap from… Continue reading Can Trump Escape from a Negotiation Trap of His Own Making?
The Costs of the Iran War Ceasefire for the Gulf States
More than two months into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, the Gulf states keep paying for a conflict they did not start, cannot control, and cannot afford to end on the wrong terms. A conditional ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran on April 8 is holding, but the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed by both countries, and the costs behind the… Continue reading The Costs of the Iran War Ceasefire for the Gulf States
The Gulf States’ Defense-Industrial Base is a Priority of the Post-War Future
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has done much more to the Arab Gulf than inflict material and economic damage. It has shattered the foundational assumptions of the regional security order and forced a reassessment of the defense-industrial policies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. From the war’s zero hour on February 28,… Continue reading The Gulf States’ Defense-Industrial Base is a Priority of the Post-War Future
The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
The U.S.–Israel Iran war reflects a broader transformation in contemporary conflict, where success is defined less by decisive military victory than by the ability to control escalation. In this evolving strategic environment, the “eye for an eye” principle continues to shape deterrence and reciprocity, but in more calibrated forms. Retaliatory actions are increasingly symbolic and… Continue reading The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?
Lebanon is expected to soon enter a third round of preliminary, ambassador-level talks with Israel under the auspices of Washington, aimed at paving the way for direct, high-level negotiations. Yet internally, Lebanon is a mess. The country’s president, prime minister, and speaker of parliament—all hailing from different religious sects according to Lebanon’s confessional system—cannot agree… Continue reading Can Lebanon Negotiate an End to War Without a National Consensus?
Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States
The Gulf states are right to view Iraq as a security risk. Thirty-six years after Saddam Hussein’s forces crossed into Kuwait, and twenty-three years after the regime fell, Baghdad remains the one Arab capital whose commitments the Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) cannot rely upon. That is not a polemical claim it is a claim… Continue reading Iraq’s Sovereignty Gap Is a Lingering Problem for the Gulf States
Qatar Foreign Policy in a Changing Region: Preserving Balance and Strategic Autonomy
Despite its relatively small size, Qatar has forged an ambitious foreign policy in a volatile region often characterized by tension and instability. Doha has focused on strategies that prioritize its sovereignty, enable it to influence and adapt to regional developments through proactive diplomacy, expand its spheres of engagement, and maintain its political independence, all while… Continue reading Qatar Foreign Policy in a Changing Region: Preserving Balance and Strategic Autonomy
The UAE’s OPEC Exit Leaves the Gulf Further Adrift
On April 28, the United Arab Emirates announced that it would end its 59-year membership in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—pointedly coming on the same day that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was presiding over a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit that was supposed to lead to greater unity among the… Continue reading The UAE’s OPEC Exit Leaves the Gulf Further Adrift
Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever
The Iran war has catapulted the Gulf region into a new era of conflict and fragmentation, with Gulf capitals reassessing how best to defend their countries and stabilize the region amid unprecedented threats to their national security. Despite precarious ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon, the region remains on edge as tensions between the United States… Continue reading Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever