MENA Outlook for 2025

With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025

With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?

Men wave Iranian flags and flags of Lebanon's Hezbollah during a pro-government rally in southern Tehran, Iran, on December 29, 2024. The 9th of Dey Rally commemorates the pro-government rallies held on December 30, 2009, which are a response to the Ashura protests amid Iran's 2009 post-presidential election unrest. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto) (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?

Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

Traders observe the stock market at Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) during the official listing ceremony for Meeza QSTP LLC (Public) at the Qatar Stock Exchange in Doha, Qatar on 23 August 2023 (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil/NurPhoto) (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Jordanians chant slogans during a demonstration near the Embassy of Israel in Amman on March 28, 2024, in support of Palestinians amid ongoing battles between Israel and the militant Hamas group in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by Khalil MAZRAAWI / AFP)

Editor’s Note  The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

People drive past buildings, destroyed during the war between Hezbollah and Israel, in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on December 1, 2024. - The Israeli military carried out air strikes in Lebanon on December 1 against Hezbollah activities that it said "posed a threat", days into a fragile ceasefire between it and the Iran-backed group. (Photo by Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)

After more than a year of hostilities that intensified dramatically in recent months, Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, but the fragile agreement has already been tested by reported violations. In this interview with Afkār, Saoud El Mawla, visiting senior fellow at the ME Council, examines the deal’s significance and durability, as well… Continue reading Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War

(221207) -- RIYADH, Dec. 7, 2022 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping is warmly greeted upon his arrival by Governor of Riyadh Province Prince Faisal bin Bandar Al Saud, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Minister Yasir Al-Rumayyan who works on China affairs and other key members of the royal family and senior officials of the government at the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dec. 7, 2022. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived here Wednesday afternoon to attend the first China-Arab States Summit and the China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit, and pay a state visit to Saudi Arabia at the invitation of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia. (Xinhua/Huang Jingwen) (Photo by Huang Jingwen / XINHUA / Xinhua via AFP)

For many years, China has been expanding its influence to every corner of the globe. And while its strategic priorities remain anchored in the Western Pacific—where it faces great-power rivalry with the United States, myriad territorial disputes, tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the potential for military conflict over the Taiwan Strait—its steadily growing presence… Continue reading Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War

Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future

US President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (R) arrive for a meeting on "World Economy" at the G20 Summit in Osaka on June 28, 2019. (Photo by Eliot BLONDET / POOL / AFP)

President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office reshaped U.S.-Gulf relations. His approach focused on cultivating personal bonds with leaders of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), signing massive arms deals, and for the most part not touching human rights issues. Gulf statesmen mostly welcomed this approach, which provided immediate defense assurances without challenging their sovereignty. However, with… Continue reading Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future

Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum

On October 21, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Manama and met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, marking a significant turning point in Iran-Bahrain relations that have been severed since 2016. This visit—the first by an Iranian foreign minister to Bahrain since 2010—took place amid an escalating military confrontation between Iran and Israel. While Bahrain… Continue reading Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum

Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World

When United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) was adopted on October 31, 2000, it marked an unprecedented commitment by the international community to regard women as integral partners in peace processes. The WPS “agenda,” as it came to be known, encompasses ten UNSC resolutions that recognize the devastating… Continue reading Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World

How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?

On October 26, Israel carried out a long-anticipated strike against Iran, which came in retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage on Israel earlier this month—itself a response to a series of Israeli assassinations of Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas leaders since July. The latest exchange, however, marks a significant escalation in the confrontation between the two… Continue reading How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?

Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions

The Saudi-Iranian renormalization agreement of March 2023 was a watershed in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. Yet while China received much of the credit for the reconciliation, which cooled the flames of one of the region’s most tense rivalries, the previous two years of heavy lifting had largely been the work of Iraq and the Sultanate… Continue reading Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions

A Region Under Fire

Editor’s Note: There Are No Winners Here  Omar H. Rahman, Fellow and Editor of Afkār, Middle East Council on Global Affairs   The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023. Decades of military occupation, colonial land theft and systemic deprivation had already pushed Palestinians into a state of constant struggle, laying the groundwork… Continue reading A Region Under Fire

Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah

BEIRUT, LEBANON - (ARCHIVE): A file photo dated July 23, 2006 shows a Lebanese man showing a poster of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that he found among the rubble of his house as he came to Haret Hreik area to find his belongings in the rubble in Dahiyeh neighborhood which has been bombed by Israeli warplanes for days, in Beirut, Lebanon. Riza Ozel / Anadolu (Photo by RIZA OZEL / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

On September 28, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah following a massive Israeli airstrike in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. The assassination of Nasrallah follows a series of escalatory measures that includes the disruption of Hezbollah’s communication network through an explosive pager operation, the assassinations of other senior leaders in the… Continue reading Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah

Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”

TEHRAN, IRAN - SEPTEMBER 29: A view of the front pages of the newspapers featured news about the death of Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli strike in the Lebanese capital on Friday, at a store in Tehran, Iran on September 29, 2024. Fatemeh Bahrami / Anadolu (Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its attacks in Lebanon, dealing a critical blow to much of Hezbollah’s top military leadership, including the late Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In this interview with Afkār, Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert and security analyst, offers his insights on Tehran’s strategic calculus at this watershed moment, including on… Continue reading Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”

Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?

Rescuers sift through the rubble at the scene of an Israeli strike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs a day earlier, as search and rescue operations continue on September 21, 2024. - Lebanon's Hezbollah said on September 21 that a second senior commander was among 16 fighters killed in an Israeli air strike on its Beirut stronghold the previous day, highlighting the scale of the blow to its military leadership. (Photo by AFP)

On September 23, Israel began a major military offensive against Lebanon that left around 500 people dead, mainly civilians, and caused mass panic across the south of the country. This followed days of strikes against Hezbollah commanders and a surprise attack on Hezbollah personnel by triggering the explosion of thousands of low-tech communications devices like… Continue reading Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?

Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?

US White House senior adviser and climate envoy John Podesta (L) speaks during a bilateral meeting with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on September 6, 2024. (Photo by Andy Wong / POOL / AFP)

Cooperation between China and the United States in the Middle East has become a common topic of discussion between academics and experts these days. The two great powers have vested interests in the region that are jeopardized by its chronic instability and the growing threat of regional war. Cooperation between the two should be a… Continue reading Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?

How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War

A student holds up a mock missile during a demonstration by students and university professors, mainly Houthi supporters, in solidarity with Palestinians at the campus of Sanaa University in Sanaa, Yemen August 21, 2024. REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah - RC28K9AF63LK

For weeks, the Middle East has been on edge as Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah prepare to retaliate against Israel for assassinating two high-level figures in their respective capitals, Tehran and Beirut. Frantic diplomacy and renewed momentum around Gaza ceasefire negotiations initially delayed the response, which has the potential to push the region over the brink… Continue reading How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War

Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?

Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in south Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 19, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by RABIH DAHER / AFP) / “The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by RABIH DAHER has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [June 19] instead of [June 8]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require.”

In a speech a week after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, the Lebanese movement’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah remarked that “the resistance is not interested in using any victory over Israel for domestic political purposes.”   Ten months into Israel’s war of annihilation against the Gaza Strip and its campaign of killings in the… Continue reading Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?

Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation

Hezbollah fighters carry the casket of slain top commander Fuad Shukr, during his funeral procession in Beirut's southern suburbs on August 1, 2024. - Hezbollah on August 1 mourned Shukr, whose body was recovered from the rubble of a July 30 Israeli strike in south Beirut that also killed five civilians, three women and two children, and injured dozens, according to Lebanon's health ministry, as fears mounted of a wider conflict in the region. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)

Despite renewed international mediation efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah insists that it will respond forcefully to Israel’s assassination of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in the movement’s stronghold in southern Beirut. Since Shukr’s killing, and that of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, outside actors have stepped up efforts to… Continue reading Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation

Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar

Yahya al-Sinwar (C), Gaza Strip chief of the Palestinian Islamist Hamas movement, waves to supporters during a rally marking the 35th anniversary of the group's foundation, in Gaza City on December 14, 2022. Hamas will end talks on securing a prisoner exchange with Israel unless there is progress soon, the militant group's leader in the Gaza Strip said on December 14. Since Israel's 2014 invasion of the Gaza Strip, the Islamist group has held the bodies of Israeli soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin, although Hamas has never confirmed their deaths. Earlier this year Hamas published a video of an Israeli civilian detained for seven years in the enclave. (Photo by MOHAMMED ABED / AFP)

On August 6, Hamas announced that its Shura Council had appointed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the movement in Gaza, as the new head of the group’s politburo. The decision came a week after Israel assassinated Hamas’ previous political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. In this interview,  Beverley Milton-Edwards, co-author of Hamas: The Quest for… Continue reading Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar

Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance

A handout picture released by the Jordanian Royal Palace shows Jordan's King Abdullah (C) attending a plenary session during the emergency aid summit entitled "Call for Action: Urgent Humanitarian Response for Gaza", in Sweimeh on the shores of the Dead Sea in Jordan on June 11, 2024. - Jordan hosted a summit on June 11 bringing together leaders and aid officials to discuss urgent humanitarian response for Palestinians enduring more than eight months of devastating war in the Gaza Strip, where the United Nations has warned of looming famine. (Photo by Chris Setian / Jordanian Royal Palace / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / JORDANIAN ROYAL HASHEMITE COURT (RHC)" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS

The ongoing Israeli war on Gaza is seen by the Jordanian government and public as an existential threat. Despite credible accusations of genocide, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prolonging, expanding, and escalating the offensive, which has led to mounting pressure on neighboring Jordan. From the potential forced displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank… Continue reading Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance

Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views

People hold up the Palestinian flag and a portrait of assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh Hamas chief during a rally at Tehran University, in the Iranian capital Tehran on July 31, 2024, as Iran declares three days of mourning. (Photo by AFP)

On July 31, Hamas’ politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran shortly after attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. Just hours before, an Israeli drone strike killed one of the founders of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a southern suburb of Beirut. The dual assassinations occurred during an escalation in the fighting between… Continue reading Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views

Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region? 

(FILES) This handout picture provided by the Iranian foreign ministry on February 13, 2024, shows Hamas' political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh preparing to welcome the Iranian Foreign Minister in Doha. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said July 31, 2024 that the chief of the Palestinian Hamas militant group, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran along with one of his bodyguards. (Photo by Iranian Foreign Ministry / AFP) / === RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / HO / IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS ===

On July 31, Hamas’ top political leader, Ismael Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran while attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. The assassination came hours after Israel launched a drone strike in Beirut, killing the high-ranking Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr and others. The pair of assassinations come amid mounting regional tensions as Israel’s… Continue reading Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region? 

The Unlikely Election of Another Reformist in Iran

Supporters cheer as newly-elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrives at the shrine of the Islamic Republic's founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Tehran on July 6, 2024. - Pezeshkian, who advocates improved ties with the West, on July 6 won a runoff presidential election against ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, the interior ministry said. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)

Until just a month ago, few people outside of Iran had heard the name Masoud Pezeshkian. The 69-year-old physician was the representative for the northwestern city of Tabriz in the Iranian parliament and had previously served as the minister of health in the second administration of the reformist President Mohammad Khatami between 2001 to 2005.… Continue reading The Unlikely Election of Another Reformist in Iran

Iran’s Snap Election Casts a Long Shadow Over the State

This handout photo made available by the state television Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting News (IRIBNEWS) on June 25, 2024, shows (L to R) reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian, Tehran's conservative mayor Alireza Zakani, the only cleric in the running Mostafa Pourmohammadi, incumbent Vice President Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, conservative presidential hopeful Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili posing for a photograph as they take part in a televised debate at the Iran State television studio in Tehran. (Photo by MORTEZA FAKHRINEJAD / IRIB / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT AFP PHOTO / IRIBNEWS

As Iran heads to a snap election for a new president, questions over the government’s political legitimacy are once again surfacing. After the shock death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, along with the foreign minister and a number of other officials, a new election to find his replacement was… Continue reading Iran’s Snap Election Casts a Long Shadow Over the State

A Succession of Coups Leaves the Sahel Prey to International Rivalries

Protesters react as a man holds up a sign demanding that soldiers from the United States Army leave Niger without negotiation during a demonstration in Niamey, on April 13, 2024. - Thousands of people demonstrated on April 13, 2024 in Niger’s capital Niamey to demand the immediate departure of American soldiers based in northern Niger, after the military regime said it was withdrawing from a 2012 cooperation deal with Washington. (Photo by AFP)

When Niger’s military rulers decided to put an end to the presence of American armed forces on the country’s territory in May, the move was met with dismay in Washington. Niger, in the heart of the Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert, is host to two major bases the United States had long used… Continue reading A Succession of Coups Leaves the Sahel Prey to International Rivalries

The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts

We at Afkār are delighted to announce that we have reached a new milestone, our 100th post! To mark the occasion, we have recorded and transcribed a special interview with the Director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Tarik M. Yousef. The in-depth interview was conducted by our editor, Omar H. Rahman, and… Continue reading The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts

What Does President Raisi’s Death Mean for the Islamic Republic?

Shiite Muslims light candles during the condolence meet for Iran's late president Ebrahim Raisi who died in a helicopter crash, at a mosque in Chennai on May 22, 2024. - Iran's powerful allies mourned the death of its president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash, while regional militants hailed him as a supporter of the Palestinian cause. (Photo by R.Satish BABU / AFP)

On May 19, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, accompanied by his Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, was tragically killed in a helicopter crash. The helicopter was en route to an event in the mountainous East Azerbaijan province when it encountered severe weather conditions, leading initially to what was described as “a hard landing.” Despite prompt rescue efforts,… Continue reading What Does President Raisi’s Death Mean for the Islamic Republic?

What Next for the War Between Iran and Israel?

TORONTO, CANADA - APRIL 21: A protester holds a placard reading 'No war on Iran' as pro-Palestinian demonstrators gather outside Union Station during a rally in Toronto, Ontario on April 21, 2024. Mert Alper Dervis / Anadolu (Photo by Mert Alper Dervis / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s direct attack against Israel was the first of its kind since the country’s clerical rulers seized power in 1979. In a major show of force, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles from its own territory—an unprecedented break with its past approach. Israel and its allies, including the United… Continue reading What Next for the War Between Iran and Israel?

Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views

TEHRAN, IRAN - APRIL 14: A new wall mural is displayed at Palestine Square picturing Iran's attack on Israel in Tehran, Iran on April 14, 2024. Haydar Sahin / Anadolu (Photo by Haydar Sahin / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

On April 13, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time in its history, retaliating for Israel’s killing of three top Iranian commanders in Damascus on April 1. Israel has since responded with a limited strike, and the United States and its allies imposed expanded sanctions on Iran. Middle East Council scholars examine the implications… Continue reading Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views

Interview: Russia in the Middle East

Preliminary voting results in the Russian presidential election are displayed on a screen at the Central Election Commission in Moscow on March 17, 2024. - Vladimir Putin secured 88 percent of the first votes counted in Russia's presidential election, the head of Russia's election commission said on March 17, 2024. (Photo by STRINGER / AFP)

1. Over two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russians have just gone to the polls and Ukraine appears set to postpone an election slated for the end of March. In Russia, Putin reportedly spent more than $1 billion on a public relations campaign in the lead-up to the election. What is the significance… Continue reading Interview: Russia in the Middle East

Interview: Iran’s Post-Election Trajectory

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei casts his ballots during the parliamentary and key clerical body elections at a polling station in Tehran on March 1, 2024. Polling stations in Iran opened on March1 for voting to select members of parliament and a key clerical body, amid fears of a low turnout and with conservatives expected to tighten their grip on power. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)

1. At 41%, voter turnout for Iran’s March 1, 2024, parliamentary elections was the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic, indicating a crisis of legitimacy as a hardline faction maintains its nearly two-decades-long grip on power. What is the significance of this election for the domestic political landscape? The poor election turnout was a… Continue reading Interview: Iran’s Post-Election Trajectory

Iran and Türkiye Seek to Avoid Regional War for Different Reasons

On January 24, the presidents of Iran and Türkiye met in Ankara amid a rapidly deteriorating security situation in the Middle East. While the meeting, which had been postponed twice, covered a broad range of bilateral topics, the war on Gaza and related clashes across the region provided an inescapable backdrop. Although the two sides… Continue reading Iran and Türkiye Seek to Avoid Regional War for Different Reasons

Saudi-Iranian Reconciliation and How Can it be Strengthened

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (L) and his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan hold a joint press conference in Riyadh on August 17, 2023. The minister was the first top Iranian official to visit Saudi Arabia since a landmark rapprochement between the Middle East heavyweights announced earlier this year. (Photo by Fayez NURELDINE / AFP)

March 10 marks a year since Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they were mending ties and resuming diplomatic relations, a landmark deal between the regional foes after mediation by China. Since their joint statement in Beijing, the two have forged solid connections, interacting regularly at the ministerial level. However, both sides need to invest more… Continue reading Saudi-Iranian Reconciliation and How Can it be Strengthened

Iran’s Strategy in the War on Gaza

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (Top) speaks in an anti-Israel rally in Tehran, Iran, on October 18, 2023. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto) (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

The recent drone strike on American soldiers stationed near the Jordan-Syria border, and Washington’s retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria, underscore the dangerous potential for a major escalation between the United States and Iran that could engulf the wider region. Washington and Tehran have engaged in a tit-for-tat conflict for several months now, which has… Continue reading Iran’s Strategy in the War on Gaza

US in the Red Sea: Security Concerns or Power Play?

Members of the Yemeni Coast Guard affiliated with the Houthi group patrol the sea as demonstrators march through the Red Sea port city of Hodeida in solidarity with the people of Gaza on January 4, 2024, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the militant Hamas group in Gaza. (Photo by AFP)

The waters of the Red Sea are heating up. In recent weeks, the United States has intensified efforts to clamp down on actions taken by the Houthis, a Yemen-based movement otherwise known as Ansar Allah, to disrupt maritime shipping believed to be connected to Israel as a retaliation for its near-total destruction of the Gaza… Continue reading US in the Red Sea: Security Concerns or Power Play?

Necessity Will Drive Gulf States to Cooperate on Climate Change

Pedestrians cross a road amidst a severe dust storm in Kuwait City on May 23, 2022. (Photo by Yasser Al-Zayyat / AFP)

The impacts of climate change are becoming starkly visible in the Gulf. Already one of the driest, hottest parts of the world, the region is heating up at a rate twice as fast as the global average. Accordingly, Gulf governments are beginning to realize that ad hoc or unilateral strategies are not sufficient to tackle… Continue reading Necessity Will Drive Gulf States to Cooperate on Climate Change

Gaza and Its Impact Three Months On – Council Views

A Palestinian man is carrying the body of a child after it was unearthed from the rubble of a building following an Israeli strike on the Zawayda area of the central Gaza Strip on December 30, 2023, amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Hamas movement. (Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto) (Photo by MAJDI FATHI / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Israel’s military campaign in Gaza is entering its fourth month with no end in sight and with the most devastating consequences imaginable for the 2.2 million Palestinian civilians living there, for which Israel is now facing charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice. The effects of this are also being felt well beyond… Continue reading Gaza and Its Impact Three Months On – Council Views

A Ceasefire in Gaza is the only Bridge toward Durable Peace in the Middle East

11 November 2023, Berlin: A participant in a demonstration holds a placard with the words "Ceasefire Now!". The organizers want to demonstrate against the "ongoing violation of human rights". The demonstration is also being called for by pro-Palestinian groups. Photo: Christophe Gateau/dpa (Photo by Christophe Gateau / DPA / dpa Picture-Alliance via AFP)

The shocking and unprecedented attack by Hamas on southern Israel caught the technologically advanced Israeli army and security forces by surprise. Hamas’s initial assault killed more than 1,400 Israelis, and thousands of Palestinians have been killed as Israel has retaliated in Gaza. Israel has said hundreds of hostages are being held in Gaza. In addition… Continue reading A Ceasefire in Gaza is the only Bridge toward Durable Peace in the Middle East

Gaza Crisis puts US’ Unipolarity Push in Doubt

US President Joe Biden (L) speaks as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu listens on prior to their meeting in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. - US President Joe Biden landed in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023 as Middle East anger flared after hundreds were killed when a rocket struck a hospital in war-torn Gaza, with Israel and the Palestinians quick to trade blame. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)

Zhai Jun, China’s Special Envoy on the Middle East affairs, is on a trip to the region to push for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. In his remarks at the Cairo Summit for Peace on the Palestinian Question on October 21, Zhai called for support for “the Palestinian people in restoring their lawful national… Continue reading Gaza Crisis puts US’ Unipolarity Push in Doubt

Lebanon Treads a Narrow Path to Avoid Regional War

A picture taken on July 3, 2022 from the Israeli Kibutz of Baram, shows the flags of (L to R) Lebanon, Hezbollah and Palestine swaying in the wind on the Lebanese side of the border with Israel. The Israeli army said on July 2, that it had intercepted three drones launched by Hezbollah that were headed towards an offshore gas field in the Mediterranean, amid rising tension between Israel and Lebanon. Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah movement in a statement confirmed it had launched drones towards the offshore area. (Photo by JALAA MAREY / AFP)

Two weeks into the unfolding crisis in Palestine-Israel, and Lebanon is edging ever closer to the abyss of a war it cannot afford to fight. While there is a narrow, difficult path to avoid this outcome, options are dwindling with each passing day and the prospect of an escalation that consumes the region looms large.   … Continue reading Lebanon Treads a Narrow Path to Avoid Regional War

The Hamas Raid and Israel’s Onslaught of Gaza

Smoke plumes billow during Israeli air strikes in Gaza City on October 12, 2023 as raging battles between Israel and the Hamas movement continue for the sixth consecutive day. - Washington urged Israel to show restraint in its response to Hamas's surprise attack -- the worst in the country's 75-year history -- which Israeli forces said killed more than 1,200 people, mostly civilians. In Gaza, officials have reported more than 1,200 people killed in Israel's uninterrupted campaign of air and artillery strikes, while the UN said more than 338,000 people have been displaced. (Photo by IBRAHIM HAMS / AFP)

On October 7, Hamas shocked the world by carrying out an astonishing raid on Israel that killed around 1,300 people, most of them civilians, and taking an estimated 150 others hostage. The Israeli response has been devastating. For a week, Israel has indiscriminately bombarded Gaza from the sky, destroying residential buildings, hospitals, schools, and other… Continue reading The Hamas Raid and Israel’s Onslaught of Gaza

BRICS Summit: Shaping a New Geopolitical Landscape – Council Views

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, China's President Xi Jinping, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pose for a picture at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa August 23, 2023. REUTERS/Alet Pretorius/Pool - RC2MT2AFMO9M

The Impact of BRICS on the International Order Galip Dalay The 2023 BRICS summit has attracted unprecedented international interest due to the geopolitical context of increasing U.S.-China competition and the Global South’s balancing act regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. As competition between global powers intensifies, Western actors increasingly see this bloc, and others like the Shanghai… Continue reading BRICS Summit: Shaping a New Geopolitical Landscape – Council Views

The Limits to Iran’s Trade Push in Africa

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi inspects a guard of honor mounted by the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) at the State House, during his three-country African tour, part of efforts to reduce the Islamic Republic's economic isolation, in Nairobi, Kenya July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Monicah Mwangi - RC2J12A4ZUZ5

In July, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi embarked on a three-country tour in Africa to expand relations on the continent, the first of its kind by an Iranian leader in more than a decade. The trip, to Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe, followed a similar visit to Latin America. Both were part of a strategic push by… Continue reading The Limits to Iran’s Trade Push in Africa

Will Egypt be the next to normalize relations with Iran?

A handout picture provided by the Saudi Royal Palace shows Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi attending the second edition of the summit of the Green Middle East Initiative, held on the sidelines of the COP27 climate conference at Egypt's Red Sea resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh on November 7, 2022. - (Photo by BANDAR AL-JALOUD / Saudi Royal Palace / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SAUDI ROYAL PALACE / BANDAR AL-JALOUD" - NO MARKETING - NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS - RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SAUDI ROYAL PALACE / BANDAR AL-JALOUD" - NO MARKETING - NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS /

Speculation has been growing in recent months that Egypt and Iran could be close to putting decades of mutual antagonism behind them. In early May, Egyptian and Iraqi officials said talks were underway in Baghdad with a view to mending relations between the two major regional powers. Later that month, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei… Continue reading Will Egypt be the next to normalize relations with Iran?

Can Iran-Saudi Rapprochement overcome Tehran’s anti-Western worldview?

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi gives a speech as Iran presents its first hypersonic ballistic missile 'Fattah' (Conqueror) in an event in Tehran, Iran on June 06, 2023. Sepah News / Handout / Anadolu Agency (Photo by Sepah News / Handout / ANADOLU Agency via AFP)

When Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Iran in June, many viewed the event as further evidence of rapidly warming relations between the two regional rivals, who resumed diplomatic ties in March after years of open hostility. The image of the Saudi prince alongside Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, conveyed the message that the… Continue reading Can Iran-Saudi Rapprochement overcome Tehran’s anti-Western worldview?

Is a New Iran Nuclear Deal in the Making?

Iran's Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani leaves the Palais Coburg, the venue where closed-door nuclear talks take place in Vienna, Austria, August 4,2022. REUTERS/Lisa Leutner - RC2NPV9I2XWB

Discreet talks between Iranian and Western officials have prompted rumors that they are nearing a new deal over Iran’s nuclear program, five years after the United States withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The original, landmark agreement had been a linchpin in global efforts to cap Iran’s nuclear development. But after… Continue reading Is a New Iran Nuclear Deal in the Making?

How Does Iran View Syria’s Return to the Arab League?

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad arrives in Jeddah, to attend the Arab League summit the following day, Saudi Arabia, May 18, 2023. SANA/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY - RC2611A8XF20

In May 2023, Syria returned to the Arab League following a near-12-year suspension. The move has far-reaching implications for both the region and the international community. It came after more than a decade of widespread atrocities by Bashar Al-Assad’s regime against its own citizens, abuses that have cast a long shadow over Syria’s relationships with… Continue reading How Does Iran View Syria’s Return to the Arab League?

Will the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement change anything for the Palestinians?

Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, is received by Deputy Amir of Makkah, Prince Badr Bin Sultan, as he arrives to attend the Arab League Summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, May 18, 2023. Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY - RC2011A4W1G1

Amid the zeitgeist of diplomatic rapprochement and normalization in the Middle East—which has recently seen Saudi Arabia and Iran mend ties and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad welcomed at this month’s Arab League summit—the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas took a step forward to repair its own regional relationships.  In mid-April, a delegation of senior Hamas officials, led… Continue reading Will the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement change anything for the Palestinians?

Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen

The head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, shakes hands with Saudi ambassador to Yemen Mohammed Al-Jaber at the Republican Palace in Sanaa, Yemen April 9, 2023. Saba News Agency /Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. - RC26B0AVW8UY

A diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has raised hopes that it could lead to a peace agreement in Yemen, where war has raged with the help of both parties for over eight years. Over the past week, Houthi officials have been holding peace talks in Sanaa with a delegation led by Saudi Ambassador… Continue reading Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen