With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025
Afkar Country: Iran
With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?
Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?
Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure
Editor’s Note The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure
Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?
After more than a year of hostilities that intensified dramatically in recent months, Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, but the fragile agreement has already been tested by reported violations. In this interview with Afkār, Saoud El Mawla, visiting senior fellow at the ME Council, examines the deal’s significance and durability, as well… Continue reading Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?
Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War
For many years, China has been expanding its influence to every corner of the globe. And while its strategic priorities remain anchored in the Western Pacific—where it faces great-power rivalry with the United States, myriad territorial disputes, tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the potential for military conflict over the Taiwan Strait—its steadily growing presence… Continue reading Thinking Through China’s Middle East Policy Amid War
Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office reshaped U.S.-Gulf relations. His approach focused on cultivating personal bonds with leaders of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), signing massive arms deals, and for the most part not touching human rights issues. Gulf statesmen mostly welcomed this approach, which provided immediate defense assurances without challenging their sovereignty. However, with… Continue reading Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum
On October 21, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Manama and met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, marking a significant turning point in Iran-Bahrain relations that have been severed since 2016. This visit—the first by an Iranian foreign minister to Bahrain since 2010—took place amid an escalating military confrontation between Iran and Israel. While Bahrain… Continue reading Efforts To Restore Bahrain-Iran Ties Gather Momentum
Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World
When United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) was adopted on October 31, 2000, it marked an unprecedented commitment by the international community to regard women as integral partners in peace processes. The WPS “agenda,” as it came to be known, encompasses ten UNSC resolutions that recognize the devastating… Continue reading Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World
How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?
On October 26, Israel carried out a long-anticipated strike against Iran, which came in retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage on Israel earlier this month—itself a response to a series of Israeli assassinations of Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas leaders since July. The latest exchange, however, marks a significant escalation in the confrontation between the two… Continue reading How Will Iran React to Israel’s Latest Strikes?
Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions
The Saudi-Iranian renormalization agreement of March 2023 was a watershed in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. Yet while China received much of the credit for the reconciliation, which cooled the flames of one of the region’s most tense rivalries, the previous two years of heavy lifting had largely been the work of Iraq and the Sultanate… Continue reading Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions
A Region Under Fire
Editor’s Note: There Are No Winners Here Omar H. Rahman, Fellow and Editor of Afkār, Middle East Council on Global Affairs The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023. Decades of military occupation, colonial land theft and systemic deprivation had already pushed Palestinians into a state of constant struggle, laying the groundwork… Continue reading A Region Under Fire
Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah
On September 28, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah following a massive Israeli airstrike in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. The assassination of Nasrallah follows a series of escalatory measures that includes the disruption of Hezbollah’s communication network through an explosive pager operation, the assassinations of other senior leaders in the… Continue reading Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah
Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”
In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its attacks in Lebanon, dealing a critical blow to much of Hezbollah’s top military leadership, including the late Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In this interview with Afkār, Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert and security analyst, offers his insights on Tehran’s strategic calculus at this watershed moment, including on… Continue reading Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”
Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?
On September 23, Israel began a major military offensive against Lebanon that left around 500 people dead, mainly civilians, and caused mass panic across the south of the country. This followed days of strikes against Hezbollah commanders and a surprise attack on Hezbollah personnel by triggering the explosion of thousands of low-tech communications devices like… Continue reading Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?
Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?
Cooperation between China and the United States in the Middle East has become a common topic of discussion between academics and experts these days. The two great powers have vested interests in the region that are jeopardized by its chronic instability and the growing threat of regional war. Cooperation between the two should be a… Continue reading Can China and the U.S. Cooperate in the Middle East?
How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War
For weeks, the Middle East has been on edge as Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah prepare to retaliate against Israel for assassinating two high-level figures in their respective capitals, Tehran and Beirut. Frantic diplomacy and renewed momentum around Gaza ceasefire negotiations initially delayed the response, which has the potential to push the region over the brink… Continue reading How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War
Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?
![Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in south Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 19, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by RABIH DAHER / AFP) / The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by RABIH DAHER has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [June 19] instead of [June 8]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require.](https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/AFP__20240619__34XG8W8__v9__HighRes__CorrectionTopshotLebanonIsraelPalestinianConfli-1568x1045.jpg)
In a speech a week after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, the Lebanese movement’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah remarked that “the resistance is not interested in using any victory over Israel for domestic political purposes.” Ten months into Israel’s war of annihilation against the Gaza Strip and its campaign of killings in the… Continue reading Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?
Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation
Despite renewed international mediation efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah insists that it will respond forcefully to Israel’s assassination of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in the movement’s stronghold in southern Beirut. Since Shukr’s killing, and that of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, outside actors have stepped up efforts to… Continue reading Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation
Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar
On August 6, Hamas announced that its Shura Council had appointed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the movement in Gaza, as the new head of the group’s politburo. The decision came a week after Israel assassinated Hamas’ previous political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. In this interview, Beverley Milton-Edwards, co-author of Hamas: The Quest for… Continue reading Interview: The Future of Hamas Under Yahia Sinwar
Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance
The ongoing Israeli war on Gaza is seen by the Jordanian government and public as an existential threat. Despite credible accusations of genocide, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prolonging, expanding, and escalating the offensive, which has led to mounting pressure on neighboring Jordan. From the potential forced displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank… Continue reading Jordan’s Dilemma: Between Israel’s Sword of Damocles and Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views
On July 31, Hamas’ politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran shortly after attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. Just hours before, an Israeli drone strike killed one of the founders of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a southern suburb of Beirut. The dual assassinations occurred during an escalation in the fighting between… Continue reading Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views
Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region?
On July 31, Hamas’ top political leader, Ismael Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran while attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. The assassination came hours after Israel launched a drone strike in Beirut, killing the high-ranking Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr and others. The pair of assassinations come amid mounting regional tensions as Israel’s… Continue reading Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region?
The Unlikely Election of Another Reformist in Iran
Until just a month ago, few people outside of Iran had heard the name Masoud Pezeshkian. The 69-year-old physician was the representative for the northwestern city of Tabriz in the Iranian parliament and had previously served as the minister of health in the second administration of the reformist President Mohammad Khatami between 2001 to 2005.… Continue reading The Unlikely Election of Another Reformist in Iran
Iran’s Snap Election Casts a Long Shadow Over the State
As Iran heads to a snap election for a new president, questions over the government’s political legitimacy are once again surfacing. After the shock death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, along with the foreign minister and a number of other officials, a new election to find his replacement was… Continue reading Iran’s Snap Election Casts a Long Shadow Over the State
A Succession of Coups Leaves the Sahel Prey to International Rivalries
When Niger’s military rulers decided to put an end to the presence of American armed forces on the country’s territory in May, the move was met with dismay in Washington. Niger, in the heart of the Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert, is host to two major bases the United States had long used… Continue reading A Succession of Coups Leaves the Sahel Prey to International Rivalries
The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
We at Afkār are delighted to announce that we have reached a new milestone, our 100th post! To mark the occasion, we have recorded and transcribed a special interview with the Director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Tarik M. Yousef. The in-depth interview was conducted by our editor, Omar H. Rahman, and… Continue reading The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
What Does President Raisi’s Death Mean for the Islamic Republic?
On May 19, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, accompanied by his Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, was tragically killed in a helicopter crash. The helicopter was en route to an event in the mountainous East Azerbaijan province when it encountered severe weather conditions, leading initially to what was described as “a hard landing.” Despite prompt rescue efforts,… Continue reading What Does President Raisi’s Death Mean for the Islamic Republic?
What Next for the War Between Iran and Israel?
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s direct attack against Israel was the first of its kind since the country’s clerical rulers seized power in 1979. In a major show of force, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles from its own territory—an unprecedented break with its past approach. Israel and its allies, including the United… Continue reading What Next for the War Between Iran and Israel?
Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views
On April 13, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time in its history, retaliating for Israel’s killing of three top Iranian commanders in Damascus on April 1. Israel has since responded with a limited strike, and the United States and its allies imposed expanded sanctions on Iran. Middle East Council scholars examine the implications… Continue reading Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views
Interview: Russia in the Middle East
1. Over two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russians have just gone to the polls and Ukraine appears set to postpone an election slated for the end of March. In Russia, Putin reportedly spent more than $1 billion on a public relations campaign in the lead-up to the election. What is the significance… Continue reading Interview: Russia in the Middle East
Interview: Iran’s Post-Election Trajectory
1. At 41%, voter turnout for Iran’s March 1, 2024, parliamentary elections was the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic, indicating a crisis of legitimacy as a hardline faction maintains its nearly two-decades-long grip on power. What is the significance of this election for the domestic political landscape? The poor election turnout was a… Continue reading Interview: Iran’s Post-Election Trajectory
Iran and Türkiye Seek to Avoid Regional War for Different Reasons
On January 24, the presidents of Iran and Türkiye met in Ankara amid a rapidly deteriorating security situation in the Middle East. While the meeting, which had been postponed twice, covered a broad range of bilateral topics, the war on Gaza and related clashes across the region provided an inescapable backdrop. Although the two sides… Continue reading Iran and Türkiye Seek to Avoid Regional War for Different Reasons
Saudi-Iranian Reconciliation and How Can it be Strengthened
March 10 marks a year since Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they were mending ties and resuming diplomatic relations, a landmark deal between the regional foes after mediation by China. Since their joint statement in Beijing, the two have forged solid connections, interacting regularly at the ministerial level. However, both sides need to invest more… Continue reading Saudi-Iranian Reconciliation and How Can it be Strengthened
Iran’s Strategy in the War on Gaza
The recent drone strike on American soldiers stationed near the Jordan-Syria border, and Washington’s retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria, underscore the dangerous potential for a major escalation between the United States and Iran that could engulf the wider region. Washington and Tehran have engaged in a tit-for-tat conflict for several months now, which has… Continue reading Iran’s Strategy in the War on Gaza
US in the Red Sea: Security Concerns or Power Play?
The waters of the Red Sea are heating up. In recent weeks, the United States has intensified efforts to clamp down on actions taken by the Houthis, a Yemen-based movement otherwise known as Ansar Allah, to disrupt maritime shipping believed to be connected to Israel as a retaliation for its near-total destruction of the Gaza… Continue reading US in the Red Sea: Security Concerns or Power Play?
Necessity Will Drive Gulf States to Cooperate on Climate Change
The impacts of climate change are becoming starkly visible in the Gulf. Already one of the driest, hottest parts of the world, the region is heating up at a rate twice as fast as the global average. Accordingly, Gulf governments are beginning to realize that ad hoc or unilateral strategies are not sufficient to tackle… Continue reading Necessity Will Drive Gulf States to Cooperate on Climate Change
Gaza and Its Impact Three Months On – Council Views
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza is entering its fourth month with no end in sight and with the most devastating consequences imaginable for the 2.2 million Palestinian civilians living there, for which Israel is now facing charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice. The effects of this are also being felt well beyond… Continue reading Gaza and Its Impact Three Months On – Council Views
A Ceasefire in Gaza is the only Bridge toward Durable Peace in the Middle East
The shocking and unprecedented attack by Hamas on southern Israel caught the technologically advanced Israeli army and security forces by surprise. Hamas’s initial assault killed more than 1,400 Israelis, and thousands of Palestinians have been killed as Israel has retaliated in Gaza. Israel has said hundreds of hostages are being held in Gaza. In addition… Continue reading A Ceasefire in Gaza is the only Bridge toward Durable Peace in the Middle East
Gaza Crisis puts US’ Unipolarity Push in Doubt
Zhai Jun, China’s Special Envoy on the Middle East affairs, is on a trip to the region to push for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. In his remarks at the Cairo Summit for Peace on the Palestinian Question on October 21, Zhai called for support for “the Palestinian people in restoring their lawful national… Continue reading Gaza Crisis puts US’ Unipolarity Push in Doubt
Lebanon Treads a Narrow Path to Avoid Regional War
Two weeks into the unfolding crisis in Palestine-Israel, and Lebanon is edging ever closer to the abyss of a war it cannot afford to fight. While there is a narrow, difficult path to avoid this outcome, options are dwindling with each passing day and the prospect of an escalation that consumes the region looms large. … Continue reading Lebanon Treads a Narrow Path to Avoid Regional War
The Hamas Raid and Israel’s Onslaught of Gaza
On October 7, Hamas shocked the world by carrying out an astonishing raid on Israel that killed around 1,300 people, most of them civilians, and taking an estimated 150 others hostage. The Israeli response has been devastating. For a week, Israel has indiscriminately bombarded Gaza from the sky, destroying residential buildings, hospitals, schools, and other… Continue reading The Hamas Raid and Israel’s Onslaught of Gaza
BRICS Summit: Shaping a New Geopolitical Landscape – Council Views
The Impact of BRICS on the International Order Galip Dalay The 2023 BRICS summit has attracted unprecedented international interest due to the geopolitical context of increasing U.S.-China competition and the Global South’s balancing act regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. As competition between global powers intensifies, Western actors increasingly see this bloc, and others like the Shanghai… Continue reading BRICS Summit: Shaping a New Geopolitical Landscape – Council Views
The Limits to Iran’s Trade Push in Africa
In July, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi embarked on a three-country tour in Africa to expand relations on the continent, the first of its kind by an Iranian leader in more than a decade. The trip, to Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe, followed a similar visit to Latin America. Both were part of a strategic push by… Continue reading The Limits to Iran’s Trade Push in Africa
Will Egypt be the next to normalize relations with Iran?
Speculation has been growing in recent months that Egypt and Iran could be close to putting decades of mutual antagonism behind them. In early May, Egyptian and Iraqi officials said talks were underway in Baghdad with a view to mending relations between the two major regional powers. Later that month, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei… Continue reading Will Egypt be the next to normalize relations with Iran?
Can Iran-Saudi Rapprochement overcome Tehran’s anti-Western worldview?
When Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Iran in June, many viewed the event as further evidence of rapidly warming relations between the two regional rivals, who resumed diplomatic ties in March after years of open hostility. The image of the Saudi prince alongside Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, conveyed the message that the… Continue reading Can Iran-Saudi Rapprochement overcome Tehran’s anti-Western worldview?
Is a New Iran Nuclear Deal in the Making?
Discreet talks between Iranian and Western officials have prompted rumors that they are nearing a new deal over Iran’s nuclear program, five years after the United States withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The original, landmark agreement had been a linchpin in global efforts to cap Iran’s nuclear development. But after… Continue reading Is a New Iran Nuclear Deal in the Making?
How Does Iran View Syria’s Return to the Arab League?
In May 2023, Syria returned to the Arab League following a near-12-year suspension. The move has far-reaching implications for both the region and the international community. It came after more than a decade of widespread atrocities by Bashar Al-Assad’s regime against its own citizens, abuses that have cast a long shadow over Syria’s relationships with… Continue reading How Does Iran View Syria’s Return to the Arab League?
Will the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement change anything for the Palestinians?
Amid the zeitgeist of diplomatic rapprochement and normalization in the Middle East—which has recently seen Saudi Arabia and Iran mend ties and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad welcomed at this month’s Arab League summit—the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas took a step forward to repair its own regional relationships. In mid-April, a delegation of senior Hamas officials, led… Continue reading Will the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement change anything for the Palestinians?
Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen
A diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has raised hopes that it could lead to a peace agreement in Yemen, where war has raged with the help of both parties for over eight years. Over the past week, Houthi officials have been holding peace talks in Sanaa with a delegation led by Saudi Ambassador… Continue reading Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Unlikely to Bring Lasting Peace to Yemen