Iran has built a security doctrine on shifting battles outside its borders, encircling adversaries with proxies and avoiding direct confrontation whenever possible. The test of this strategy is whether it can translate clout into security and sustainable gains at a reasonable cost. Yet from Syria to Yemen, Iran’s influence has entailed staggering losses, while its… Continue reading Strategy Without Gains: How Iran Squandered its Regional Clout
Afkar Country: Iran
Diplomacy Cannot Work with Mediators Under Fire
One of the most dangerous developments in the contemporary Middle East is not the proliferation of conflicts but the deliberate erosion of the diplomatic space required to end them. Wars eventually require negotiations, and even governments committed to maximalist positions seek intermediaries to convey messages they cannot exchange directly. Yet the region is witnessing a… Continue reading Diplomacy Cannot Work with Mediators Under Fire
As Iran War Spreads, Baghdad’s Slow Response Risks Unwanted Entanglement
The ongoing military escalation between Washington and Tehran could be a prelude to an open-ended confrontation with even more dangerous regional consequences. Such a prospect should compel regional states to raise their level of preparedness to protect their political, economic, and security interests. Yet Baghdad—the capital most exposed to the repercussions of these developments—remains governed… Continue reading As Iran War Spreads, Baghdad’s Slow Response Risks Unwanted Entanglement
How the Middle East Became Trapped in a War of Attrition
Just a few months ago, experts were predicting that Israeli-American strikes on Iran would create a new reality in the Middle East, shifting the regional balances of power and deterrence against Iran. This hypothesis was based on a clear premise: Either Tehran would be forced to retreat under the weight of its losses, or the… Continue reading How the Middle East Became Trapped in a War of Attrition
The Post-October 7 Era: Iranian-Israeli Attrition and Saudi-Turkish Ascendancy
The Middle East has seen dramatic geopolitical shifts since October 7, 2023. From the war on Gaza to confrontations in Lebanon and Yemen, the fall of the Assad regime, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, along with Iran’s attacks on Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, interconnected conflicts have impacted not only… Continue reading The Post-October 7 Era: Iranian-Israeli Attrition and Saudi-Turkish Ascendancy
A U.S.-Iran Deal That Does Not Address Gulf Concerns Will Not Bring Stability
Although the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran has been faltering since the moment it was signed, there is no longer a question for the Gulf states over whether an agreement can be reached, but rather the nature of such an agreement. That includes not just its nuclear program but its… Continue reading A U.S.-Iran Deal That Does Not Address Gulf Concerns Will Not Bring Stability
Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
Despite a resumption in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, and the resulting re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and its major Gulf oil-producing rivals are in a race to boost their respective oil exports and restore or carve out their share of critical markets. This can be seen in Iran’s bid to export… Continue reading Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
The Iranian Duality the Region Must Stop Indulging
In the early hours of July 7, an anti-ship missile struck Al Rekayyat, a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tanker, as it left the Strait of Hormuz. A fire spread through the engine room, and for a few hours, the region waited to find out whether the vessel would be the latest casualty of the U.S.-Iranian war’s worst maritime incident yet. Al Rekayyat belongs to transportation firm Nakilat, majority-owned by Qatar, which has facilitated extensive negotiations between Washington and… Continue reading The Iranian Duality the Region Must Stop Indulging
Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
The U.S.-Iran war has so far failed to produce any decisive strategic outcome or end the threat hanging over the Gulf. Instead, it has ushered the region into a new phase of managed instability, characterized by cycles of escalation and de-escalation, with no clear political or military resolution in sight. The war has placed the Strait… Continue reading Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
Iran War Marks the Struggle for America’s Story at 250 Years
An anniversary is a moment for story-telling, and the U.S. loves grand stories. Yet as the country marked its 250th anniversary, the stories its leaders told were as much linked to the electoral politics of the moment as to a grand national narrative. The left condemned President Donald Trump for turning the spotlight on himself; the right accused New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani of being unpatriotic. Yet focusing on domestic politics, even in light of November’s midterm elections, ignores the broader significance of the occasion—not least, the highly contested question of how Trump’s fateful war… Continue reading Iran War Marks the Struggle for America’s Story at 250 Years
Why the U.S.-Iranian MoU Didn’t Last
The optimistic narrative regarding an imminent, lasting settlement between Tehran and Washington has evaporated. The region has reverted to the situation that prevailed at the onset of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in February: missile launches, reciprocal strikes, and an escalation that threatens the security of the Gulf and Jordan, as well as the stability of global energy markets. It is as if… Continue reading Why the U.S.-Iranian MoU Didn’t Last
The Hormuz Blockade Experience Is Forcing Food Security Adaptation
Media coverage of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has focused overwhelmingly on the disruption of energy supplies to global markets. Yet this narrow waterway also connects Gulf fertilizer producers with farms across Africa, Asia, and beyond. The disruption of these agricultural inputs threatens to increase global hunger… Continue reading The Hormuz Blockade Experience Is Forcing Food Security Adaptation
The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
The Strait of Hormuz is back at the center of regional and international controversy—not because its geography has changed, but because Iran has pressed on with its political approach, refusing to make any tangible shift in its regional policies. Even after signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S., pledging to restore maritime traffic through the waterway within 30 days, Tehran continues to use the Strait for leverage, threatening the security of… Continue reading The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
The U.S.-Iran Deal: Resolving the Crisis or Refinancing it?
The timing of the truce agreement between the U.S. and Iran reveals a shift in Washington’s approach to the crisis in the Gulf. The Trump administration, which initially presented its February escalation as a way to reshape the balance of power with Tehran, eventually found itself forced to contain the fire before it started to inflict deeper damage at the political, economic, and security levels. In this sense, the agreement is more of a way out of a predicament that the tools of hard power have failed to tackle, rather than the crowning of an American victory. … Continue reading The U.S.-Iran Deal: Resolving the Crisis or Refinancing it?
The U.S.-Iran Agreement: A Signature without a Handshake
The truce agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran on June 17 has sparked widespread debate over its true nature and ultimate objectives. While some view it as a significant diplomatic step that successfully averted a perilous regional confrontation, others see it as merely postponing the crisis, rather than resolving it. From both these perspectives, a key question arises: Is this an agreement that lays the foundation for a long-term stability, or merely a political truce that masks deep-seated disagreements? In one… Continue reading The U.S.-Iran Agreement: A Signature without a Handshake
The Legal Mirage in the U.S. Strategy for Iranian Assets
With the United States and Iran now reaching an interim peace agreement to halt their four-month military conflict and lift the U.S. naval blockade, the path has been cleared for a 60-day negotiation window regarding Tehran’s nuclear program. Throughout the conflict, Tehran has demanded the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets as a core… Continue reading The Legal Mirage in the U.S. Strategy for Iranian Assets
Algeria’s Chokepoint Opportunity
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has brought the Strait of Hormuz to the center of global energy politics, generating renewed concern among European governments over the vulnerabilities inherent in relying on supply routes subject to geopolitical disruption. As tanker traffic through the strait collapsed and gas prices across Europe rose by more than 70 percent in… Continue reading Algeria’s Chokepoint Opportunity
Can Trump Escape from a Negotiation Trap of His Own Making?
When Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—otherwise known as the Iran nuclear agreement—in 2018, he declared that his predecessor had signed “the worst deal in history” and promised to do dramatically better. It was a characteristically bold claim—and one that has since metastasized into a strategic trap from… Continue reading Can Trump Escape from a Negotiation Trap of His Own Making?
The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
The U.S.–Israel Iran war reflects a broader transformation in contemporary conflict, where success is defined less by decisive military victory than by the ability to control escalation. In this evolving strategic environment, the “eye for an eye” principle continues to shape deterrence and reciprocity, but in more calibrated forms. Retaliatory actions are increasingly symbolic and… Continue reading The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever
The Iran war has catapulted the Gulf region into a new era of conflict and fragmentation, with Gulf capitals reassessing how best to defend their countries and stabilize the region amid unprecedented threats to their national security. Despite precarious ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon, the region remains on edge as tensions between the United States… Continue reading Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever
Iran’s Rulers Have Survived Every War for Five Centuries. Will This One Be Different?
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s resilience in the face of the unprecedented severity of the U.S.-Israeli assault that began on February 28 should surprise no one who has read Iranian history with any seriousness. Since the early sixteenth century, Iran has fought more than twenty major wars—against the Ottomans, Uzbeks, Afghans, the Russian and British… Continue reading Iran’s Rulers Have Survived Every War for Five Centuries. Will This One Be Different?
The Iran War’s Shadow Over Iraq’s Preexisting Dynamics
For Iraq, the Iran war is not simply another regional crisis spilling across its borders. It is foregrounding fundamental questions about the country’s post-2003 political order itself: the extent of Iranian influence, the future of relations with the Arab Gulf and the United States, and the role of Iran-aligned factions within the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilization… Continue reading The Iran War’s Shadow Over Iraq’s Preexisting Dynamics
Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
The United States and Iran departed from high-level, direct talks in Pakistan without a peace deal. According to the American side, it was their continued disagreement over the nuclear question that ultimately stood in the way. Yet conspicuously absent from the table were the Arab Gulf states, which have absorbed five weeks of strikes on their territories in a war… Continue reading Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
The Iran War and the Battle for A Multipolar World Order
What is unfolding in Iran is not simply a war over the regional balance of power or nuclear containment. It is an attempt to rupture the geographic core of an emerging multipolar order designed to bypass Western dominance—by targeting the single state that links China’s and Russia’s ambitions across the entire Eurasian continent. The strikes on Iranian military installations, critical infrastructure, and political leadership—especially the initial assassination of Supreme… Continue reading The Iran War and the Battle for A Multipolar World Order
Who Pumps the Oil… and Who Controls It?
Iran’s announcement that “non-hostile vessels” will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz is the latest—and perhaps clearest—illustration of how oil has become a weapon of war. In a letter to the International Maritime Organization, Tehran framed the restriction of certain vessels as a lawful act of self-defense, explicitly linking access to the world’s most critical… Continue reading Who Pumps the Oil… and Who Controls It?
Israel’s Strike on North Field–South Pars: Energy War and Global Risk
On March 18, 2026, an Israeli air raid targeted treatment facilities at Asaluyeh, the onshore processing hub for Iran’s largest natural gas field and a bedrock of domestic supply. The governor of Asaluyeh confirmed the facilities were “taken offline” to control fires, with no immediate disclosure of production losses. Israeli military sources acknowledged that the… Continue reading Israel’s Strike on North Field–South Pars: Energy War and Global Risk
Water Must Not Become A Target in the Region’s Wars
In the arid lands of the Arab Gulf, water is often said to be more precious than oil. Over the past half-century, oil revenues have driven rapid population expansion and the construction of modern metropolises. However, freshwater resources are limited, requiring Gulf states to increasingly rely on desalination to survive and thrive. The primacy and scarcity of water have… Continue reading Water Must Not Become A Target in the Region’s Wars
War with Israel Forces Lebanon to Confront Hezbollah’s Arms
Israel’s war on Lebanon is rapidly escalating, with military operations penetrating deep into Lebanese territory: in the south, the Bekaa Valley, and key areas of Beirut—especially its southern suburb of Dahiya. The conflict is no longer confined to the border region between the two states. It has metastasized into an all-out war, imposing new military and security realities across the country. Diplomatic efforts have been ineffective in… Continue reading War with Israel Forces Lebanon to Confront Hezbollah’s Arms
How Does Türkiye View the U.S.–Israel War on Iran?
The ongoing war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran aims to weaken the Iranian regime and destroy its military infrastructure, including both its existing and potential weapons capabilities. At the outset of the conflict, some observers expected that military pressure might trigger internal unrest in Iran and eventually lead to regime change.… Continue reading How Does Türkiye View the U.S.–Israel War on Iran?
How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
The Israeli-U.S. war on Iran has thrown Gulf societies into a complex state of anxiety and emotional vigilance. This reaction is not merely a response to rapid military developments. It reflects a mindset shaped over decades by historical experience and repeated security crises. As regional tensions escalate and threaten the Gulf’s vital interests, public sentiment… Continue reading How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
Pakistan’s Iran Trap
A defense pact is only as credible as the state that signs it. When Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told reporters on March 3 that he had warned Tehran not to strike Saudi Arabia—invoking a mutual defense agreement signed just six months ago—he did not sound like a man laying down a tripwire. He sounded like one hoping no one would… Continue reading Pakistan’s Iran Trap
The Costs of the Iran Conflict for the Gulf
In short order, the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has expanded across the region, with Gulf states bearing the brunt of Tehran’s retaliatory campaign aimed at dispersing the costs of the war and pressuring Washington to halt its offensive. This has included targeting energy infrastructure, shipping routes and aviation networks, threatening not only regional stability but… Continue reading The Costs of the Iran Conflict for the Gulf
Avoiding War with Iran Is the Gulf’s Only Winning Move
In the months following Israel’s overwhelmingly disproportionate response to the October 7 attacks, diplomats and international observers repeatedly warned that the war risked expanding beyond Gaza and destabilizing the wider region. Governments and international organizations cautioned that unless the violence was halted, it would inevitably spill across borders and draw neighboring states into confrontation. Israel’s… Continue reading Avoiding War with Iran Is the Gulf’s Only Winning Move
Iran’s Regional Gamble and Its Implications for the Future of Gulf Security
The Iranian leadership made two major strategic mistakes. The first was failing to seize the opportunity to reach an agreement with the United States while the window for negotiations was still open — a step that could have spared the region further tension and instability. The second mistake was targeting the Gulf states, which had… Continue reading Iran’s Regional Gamble and Its Implications for the Future of Gulf Security
Qatar Emerges as an LNG Hedge Against Trade Policy Instability in the U.S.
The Trump administration’s trade policy has become a prominent source of global economic anxiety. Over the past year, the administration has turned tariffs and trade threats into blunt transactional instruments of foreign policy, demanding allies purchase more U.S. commodities—especially liquified natural gas (LNG)—in exchange for market access and political favor. What Washington calls “rebalancing,” many… Continue reading Qatar Emerges as an LNG Hedge Against Trade Policy Instability in the U.S.
Iran Signals It Seeks a Resolution, But Is Also Prepared for War
Eight months after the U.S.-backed Israeli war on Iran in June 2025—which ended after an American strike on Iranian nuclear facilities—negotiators convened in Oman to discuss possible avenues for an agreement. The short but intense 12-day conflict triggered a reassessment by Iran’s strategic establishment about the value and limits of diplomatic engagement with Washington. Three conclusions have emerged clearly… Continue reading Iran Signals It Seeks a Resolution, But Is Also Prepared for War
Is Iran Changing Its Defense Doctrine?
On January 6, Iran’s newly established Defense Council issued a short but controversial statement. While reaffirming Iran’s long-standing claim that it does not seek war, the council declared that Tehran no longer considers itself limited to responding after an attack and would treat “objective signs of threat” as part of its security calculus. The phrasing is deliberately cautious,… Continue reading Is Iran Changing Its Defense Doctrine?
As Renewal of Iran-Israel War Looms, What Lessons Can Be Learned from June?
Since Israel’s 12-day war with Iran came to an end last June, the prospect of a return to fighting has loomed large, primarily because Israel has yet to achieve all of its goals vis-a-vis Iran and may be determined to do so. Though the war was likely driven by more than one consideration, Israel’s overarching… Continue reading As Renewal of Iran-Israel War Looms, What Lessons Can Be Learned from June?
Baghdad has tied itself to Iran, endangering Iraq’s future
When Israel and the United States launched a bombing campaign against Tehran’s nuclear program in June, Iran-aligned forces that have spent years building their influence and arsenals in neighboring Iraq were oddly silent. Yet despite their decision to stay out of the so-called “12-day war,” pro-Iranian groups still have far-reaching influence in Baghdad, while co-existing… Continue reading Baghdad has tied itself to Iran, endangering Iraq’s future
What the Iranian Attack on Qatar Means for the Future of Gulf Security
Iran’s ballistic missile attack on the Qatari airbase at Al Udeid was viewed by many international analysts and media strictly through the lens of the confrontation between the U.S., Israel and Iran. Widely seen as a symbolic move, the attack’s lack of casualties allowed U.S. President Donald Trump to pursue his preferred option of de-escalation… Continue reading What the Iranian Attack on Qatar Means for the Future of Gulf Security
How Israel’s Dangerous New Grand Strategy Has Set Mideast on Fire
For more than a decade, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the world of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He repeatedly accused Tehran of being on the cusp of acquiring a bomb, condemned diplomatic overtures as capitulation, and vowed Israel would never allow Iran to become a nuclear power. Yet despite the endless threats, leaked war plans,… Continue reading How Israel’s Dangerous New Grand Strategy Has Set Mideast on Fire
How Iran Is Calculating Its War With Israel
Iran’s response to Israel’s unprecedented military offensive has been constrained, reactive and shaped by a growing sense of vulnerability. While it has launched retaliatory strikes, these have been more limited in intensity and scope than many would have anticipated, given Tehran’s massive stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones. This restraint is believed to stem from… Continue reading How Iran Is Calculating Its War With Israel
The Islamic Republic’s Existential Crisis
Israel’s decision to launch airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military should have come as no surprise following a year of devastating setbacks for the Iranian regime and its proxy network in the region. For almost a decade, the two sides have engaged in a shadow war and tit-for-tat military exchanges across several conflict theaters.… Continue reading The Islamic Republic’s Existential Crisis
Israel Applies Its Lebanon Playbook to Iran in Opening Salvo
In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched a large-scale aerial offensive against multiple military and nuclear-related targets inside Iran. Dubbed “Operation Rising Lion”, the strikes targeted senior military commanders, nuclear scientists, air defense infrastructure and suspected ballistic missile facilities. Israel has framed the campaign as a necessary measure to halt Iran’s advancing nuclear… Continue reading Israel Applies Its Lebanon Playbook to Iran in Opening Salvo
How Trump’s Government Cuts Will Affect U.S. Foreign Policy
Spurred on by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, the second Trump administration has embarked upon a campaign of massive disruption within the federal government that will have serious implications for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). One of the primary targets is the State Department.… Continue reading How Trump’s Government Cuts Will Affect U.S. Foreign Policy
The First 100 Days: Trump’s Middle East Policy Revisited
By any standard of the American presidency, the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term have been eventful, to say the least. From the dismantling of government institutions to the imposition of protectionist trade policies to the launching of negotiations with Iran and Russia, the implications of Trump’s early agenda have been far reaching… Continue reading The First 100 Days: Trump’s Middle East Policy Revisited
Is Russia Entering U.S.-Iranian Nuclear Negotiations?
A three-way dance is developing between Washington, Moscow and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter directly to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, asking to enter negotiations, while indicating to the media separately that the alternative would be military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Khamenei responded… Continue reading Is Russia Entering U.S.-Iranian Nuclear Negotiations?
As Trump Imposes Tariffs, What Will U.S. Protectionism Mean for MENA and the Global Economy?
The United States has long been the world’s leading advocate for free trade, promoting it as a means of expanding global commerce and specialization in production that links economies into diversified supply chains. This has led to an unprecedented period of economic growth and poverty alleviation, a period anchored largely in an international rules-based order… Continue reading As Trump Imposes Tariffs, What Will U.S. Protectionism Mean for MENA and the Global Economy?
Fast-Moving Geopolitical Dynamics Challenge Yemen and the Houthis
The fall of the Assad regime in Damascus represents a critical turning point in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Beforehand, Syria functioned as a strategic link supporting Iranian influence from Tehran to Beirut and onwards to Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, making it a crucial component in the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” Recent setbacks to… Continue reading Fast-Moving Geopolitical Dynamics Challenge Yemen and the Houthis
The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA
Since returning to office on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump has issued 67 executive orders, more than double any other president in American history. Given that some of those orders have serious implications for the Middle East and North Africa, Afkār has compiled views from Middle East Council on Global Affairs scholars to analyze some… Continue reading The Art of Disruption: How Trump’s Foreign Policy is Impacting MENA