Publications

This situation assessment examines how domestic electioneering shapes Israel’s fragmented political landscape, its approach to Gaza, settlement expansion in the West Bank, and military operations and negotiations in Lebanon. It argues that the election outcome may alter the pace and rhetoric of Israeli policy without substantially changing its core objectives.

This situation assessment examines the strategic connection between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab and its implications for Gulf energy trade and maritime security. It argues that a sustainable response requires re-establishing sovereignty over Yemen’s coast and building a Yemeni state capable of guarding its own shores.

Key Takeaways Rather than seeing a transfer of dominance from Russia to China, Central Asia is moving toward multipolarity: While Russia retains extensive security, economic, and human ties, China has become a structural component of the regional economy through trade, energy, and infrastructure. The deeper shift is that no single power monopolizes the region, creating… Continue reading Central Asia in an Emerging International Order: Shifting Strategic Partnerships with the GCC

Linking Iraq’s Grand Faw Port to Türkiye and Europe, the Development Road promises trade, jobs and regional integration. Its success depends on financing, Iraqi governance, relations with Iran and progress on three interconnected Kurdish issues.

Pakistan is emerging as a security partner for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, but its nuclear ambiguity, limited power-projection capabilities, and ties with Iran raise serious questions about the credibility of its guarantees.

This situation assessment examines the evolving relationship between NATO and the GCC following the 2026 Ankara Summit. It explores defense cooperation, maritime security, the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, and the role of the Mecca Defense Alliance in an emerging layered regional security order.

Iraq’s militia disarmament deadline and anti-corruption campaign promise reform, but they may primarily serve the government’s political survival. This paper assesses Baghdad’s attempt to balance Washington and Tehran—and what could follow after September 30.

The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement marks a historic shift in regional security. It responds to declining U.S. credibility while stopping short of separating regional defense from American power.

As confidence in external security guarantees erodes, Middle Eastern states are reassessing the foundations of regional security. This paper argues that rather than pursuing a NATO-style alliance, the region should develop a layered security architecture built on Gulf integration, diversified partnerships, stronger deterrence, and greater strategic autonomy.

Iran’s economic future will depend on its ability to balance relations with China and the Gulf while rebuilding commercial trust, maintaining access to regional trade networks, and addressing long-standing domestic structural challenges.

The conflict between Iran and Israel has transformed Yemen into a central player in regional security. This analysis explores the Houthis’ strategic calculations, the growing importance of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the political, economic, and humanitarian challenges shaping Yemen’s future.

The events of October 7, 2023, marked a turning point for the Levant, exposing long-standing structural weaknesses in governance, legitimacy, and state institutions. This policy brief examines how the decline of Hezbollah, Syria’s post-Assad transition, and shifting regional dynamics have created both challenges and opportunities for rebuilding resilient states. It argues that durable stability depends on inclusive governance, institutional reform, the conditional integration of non-state actors, and coordinated international support to strengthen sovereignty, promote political participation, and foster sustainable peace across the region.