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Conflict and Security Program

The Conflict and Security Program contributes to the stability and security of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and GCC region through independent, in-depth analysis of the intricate dynamics of conflicts.

The program focuses on exploring the underlying causes, trajectories, and regional and international impacts of these conflicts. More broadly, the program examines how both internal and external factors, from local tensions to global geopolitical influences, shape the security landscape of the MENA and GCC regions.

The program conducts in-depth research, convenes policymakers, scholars, and practitioners for dialogues and workshops, and strategically engages regional and global policy actors to bridge knowledge gaps and foster international cooperation.  

Areas of
Focus

MENA Security 

  • Regional trajectories and security, political, economic, and social trends.
  • Regional dynamics and interactions between states and non-state actors.
  • Cooperation, mediation and conflict resolution.
2.15.0.0

 

Anatomy of Conflicts 

  • Root causes and dynamics of conflicts in the region.  
  • Role of specific conflict zones and non-state actors.  
  • Spillover effects of conflicts on neighboring countries.  
  • 2.15.0.0

Palestine

  • Humanitarian crises.
  • Impact on Arab neighbors.
  • Challenges to the international rule of law and long-term impacts.
2.15.0.0

 

Gender Dimension 

  • Gender perspective in all research initiatives.
  • Empowerment in policymaking.

 

publications

May 7, 2025 Rivalry and Cooperation: Russia and Türkiye Navigate Libya’s Geopolitical Labyrinth

Russia and Türkiye have emerged as simultaneous geopolitical rivals and partners in conflicts across the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Europe. Despite being on opposing sides in Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine, Moscow and Ankara have managed to maintain cooperation and effectively navigate these conflicts to their mutual advantage.

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April 16, 2025 The Wages of War: Yemeni Gunmen for Hire

Over a decade of relentless conflict, Yemen's longest modern war, has fundamentally shattered the country's social, economic, and political foundations. Famine, extreme poverty, and economic collapse have pushed Yemenis to make grim choices to survive, including joining smuggling networks, working illegally in neighboring countries, or signing up to fight for a wage in conflicts well beyond Yemen’s borders.

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March 20, 2025 Can Somalia’s Third Republic Be Saved?

Somalia’s political development has undergone significant transformations, characterized by periods of civilian governance (First Republic), military dictatorship (Second Republic), and a transitional or post-transition state-building era (Third Republic). This policy note calls for preserving the Third Republic and preventing the emergence of parallel administrations and further fragmentation within the country

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March 11, 2025 Syria Post-Assad: Scenarios And Regional Dynamics

The "Syria Post-Assad: Scenarios and Regional Dynamics” two-day workshop brought together a diverse group of experts, academics, and policymakers from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the United States, Europe, and Russia.

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February 16, 2025 Lost in the Mix: The EU and the Complexities of an Evolving GCC-ASIA Relationship

This issue brief analyzes the EU's challenges in maintaining its influence within the GCC amidst a burgeoning GCC-Asia relationship and China's rising prominence. It argues that the EU's complex relationship with the GCC, entanglement with China, and internal struggles hinder its ability to compete effectively.

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January 16, 2025 The Iraqi Prime Minister’s Tricky Balancing Act

Iraq constitutes a key arena in the region-wide conflict that has emerged from the war in Gaza, and Iran-backed militias in the country constitute a vital component of the “Axis of Resistance.”

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November 26, 2024 The Kurdish Issue Revisited: Türkiye’s Complex Road to Peace

Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a political party deeply rooted in Turkish nationalism, recently made a groundbreaking call to invite Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), to address Türkiye’s parliament. This move marks a significant shift in the country’s approach to the 40-year conflict. On October 22, 2024, Bahçeli urged parliament to allow Öcalan to “unilaterally declare that terrorism is over and his organization dissolved.”

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August 22, 2024 Division and Disaster: Libya’s Political Fragmentation and Response to the Derna Flood

A devastating flood hit the Libyan city of Derna on September 10 and 11, 2023. It resulted from the collapse of two dams after heavy rainfall pounded the eastern coastline of Libya due to Storm Daniel’s passage through the Mediterranean.

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