One of the most dangerous developments in the contemporary Middle East is not the proliferation of conflicts but the deliberate erosion of the diplomatic space required to end them. Wars eventually require negotiations, and even governments committed to maximalist positions seek intermediaries to convey messages they cannot exchange directly. Yet the region is witnessing a… Continue reading Diplomacy Cannot Work with Mediators Under Fire
Afkar Country: Oman
With Hormuz Blocked Again, How Effective Are the Gulf’s Bypass Routes?
To the great dismay of Gulf energy exporters and global markets alike, the Strait of Hormuz is once again blocked due to hostilities between the United States and Iran. After a brief opening of the critical commercial waterway following a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 to end the war, Tehran ordered the strait… Continue reading With Hormuz Blocked Again, How Effective Are the Gulf’s Bypass Routes?
Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
Despite a resumption in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, and the resulting re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and its major Gulf oil-producing rivals are in a race to boost their respective oil exports and restore or carve out their share of critical markets. This can be seen in Iran’s bid to export… Continue reading Why the Gulf’s Oil Export Future Lies in Southeast Asia
Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
The U.S.-Iran war has so far failed to produce any decisive strategic outcome or end the threat hanging over the Gulf. Instead, it has ushered the region into a new phase of managed instability, characterized by cycles of escalation and de-escalation, with no clear political or military resolution in sight. The war has placed the Strait… Continue reading Rethinking Gulf Security on the Threshold of a New World Order
The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
The Strait of Hormuz is back at the center of regional and international controversy—not because its geography has changed, but because Iran has pressed on with its political approach, refusing to make any tangible shift in its regional policies. Even after signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S., pledging to restore maritime traffic through the waterway within 30 days, Tehran continues to use the Strait for leverage, threatening the security of… Continue reading The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order
Can the GCC Lead in Environmentally Responsible Solar Development?
Amid the wartime focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of critical hydrocarbon supplies to global energy markets, another major transformation in the Gulf has received far less attention: the rapid expansion of renewable energy. Over the past decade, the Gulf Cooperation Council region has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing solar energy markets. Solar power now accounts for roughly half of the GCC’s energy mix, up from less than 10 percent in… Continue reading Can the GCC Lead in Environmentally Responsible Solar Development?
Gulf Confederation: From Cooperation to a Shared Destiny
In the moments of calm that follow major crises, states are not measured solely by their capacity to endure, but by their ability to redefine their roles and revive deferred strategic projects before new crises engulf them. A ceasefire is not the end of a conflict; rather, it is a critical juncture for reassessment: what has been achieved, and… Continue reading Gulf Confederation: From Cooperation to a Shared Destiny
A Gulf NATO: The Strategic Necessity of a Collective Deterrence System
The term “Gulf NATO” is often used in political discussions as a slogan or a theoretical concept, but its roots go much deeper. The idea would not be to create a new military alliance from scratch, but rather to develop the region’s existing security structure, which emerged with the establishment of the GCC in 1981 and developed over subsequent years with the creation of the Peninsula Shield Force, the first institutional attempt to translate the concept of… Continue reading A Gulf NATO: The Strategic Necessity of a Collective Deterrence System
U.S. Bases in the GCC: A Security Model Under Attack
The U.S.-Israel war against Iran, and Tehran’s subsequent missile and drone retaliation against the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states hosting American forces, has revived a longstanding strategic question regarding the nature of U.S. military bases abroad, and whose interests they ultimately serve. It has also reopened a lively debate among Gulf analysts, policymakers, and commentators over whether the continued U.S. military footprint remains the most effective… Continue reading U.S. Bases in the GCC: A Security Model Under Attack
How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
The war in Iran marks a major inflection point in the security outlook and external partnerships of Gulf countries. In many ways, it mirrors the geopolitical awakening that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered for Europeans after 2022. Like their European counterparts, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states now face the dilemma of relying on a security partner—the United States—that remains indispensable yet increasingly… Continue reading How the Iran war could reshape EU–Gulf relations
Has Anyone ‘Won’ the Iran War?
The US-Israel-Iran war has reshaped the Middle East’s balance of power, but it has not produced a strategic resolution for any of the actors involved. While both sides traded escalation with containment, Europe and China kept their focus firmly on the economic risks, managing their own exposure to the war rather than seeking to alter the course… Continue reading Has Anyone ‘Won’ the Iran War?
The Costs of the Iran War Ceasefire for the Gulf States
More than two months into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, the Gulf states keep paying for a conflict they did not start, cannot control, and cannot afford to end on the wrong terms. A conditional ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran on April 8 is holding, but the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed by both countries, and the costs behind the… Continue reading The Costs of the Iran War Ceasefire for the Gulf States
The Gulf States’ Defense-Industrial Base is a Priority of the Post-War Future
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has done much more to the Arab Gulf than inflict material and economic damage. It has shattered the foundational assumptions of the regional security order and forced a reassessment of the defense-industrial policies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. From the war’s zero hour on February 28,… Continue reading The Gulf States’ Defense-Industrial Base is a Priority of the Post-War Future
The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
The U.S.–Israel Iran war reflects a broader transformation in contemporary conflict, where success is defined less by decisive military victory than by the ability to control escalation. In this evolving strategic environment, the “eye for an eye” principle continues to shape deterrence and reciprocity, but in more calibrated forms. Retaliatory actions are increasingly symbolic and… Continue reading The Iran War and the Rise of Controlled Escalation
Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever
The Iran war has catapulted the Gulf region into a new era of conflict and fragmentation, with Gulf capitals reassessing how best to defend their countries and stabilize the region amid unprecedented threats to their national security. Despite precarious ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon, the region remains on edge as tensions between the United States… Continue reading Gulf Diplomacy with Iran Is More Important Than Ever
The Hidden Risks of Declaring Early Victory over Iran
The ongoing military confrontation in the Persian Gulf region—pitting the United States and Israel against Iran—has spilled far beyond the confines of its direct combatants. Iran’s neighbors, including the Gulf states, Iraq, and Jordan, though not architects of this conflict, have nonetheless emerged as its primary victims. Facing the targeting of energy infrastructure, the disruption… Continue reading The Hidden Risks of Declaring Early Victory over Iran
The GCC Will Not Unify on Iran
The war that has unfolded across the Gulf has done more than shatter the region’s security architecture. It has also underscored a long-standing reality: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has never operated as a unified actor in its approach toward Iran, and it is unlikely to do so after the conflict ends. The GCC is… Continue reading The GCC Will Not Unify on Iran
Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
The United States and Iran departed from high-level, direct talks in Pakistan without a peace deal. According to the American side, it was their continued disagreement over the nuclear question that ultimately stood in the way. Yet conspicuously absent from the table were the Arab Gulf states, which have absorbed five weeks of strikes on their territories in a war… Continue reading Talks in Pakistan Failed. Why the Gulf Must Be There Next Time
Gulf Security Beyond Guarantees
Since late February, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury and Operation Rising Lion, respectively, the Gulf states have been drawn into a war not of their making and not in their interests. For years, the Gulf states carefully diversified their security strategies, deepening ties with the U.S., expanding diplomatic… Continue reading Gulf Security Beyond Guarantees
Gulf States in the Crossfire of a War They Tried To Prevent
When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, Tehran responded, in large part, by attacking military installations and civilian infrastructure in the Gulf states. The Islamic Republic’s strategy was to immediately raise and disperse the cost of the war by destabilizing the global economy and pressuring the Gulf states… Continue reading Gulf States in the Crossfire of a War They Tried To Prevent
How the War is Redefining Gulf Economic Power and Energy Strategy
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are confronting the greatest threat to their economic security and energy strategy since their formation. The economic fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is severe, but uneven across the Gulf. So too is each state’s ability to sustain energy exports and protect critical infrastructure—both of which have been targeted unequally by Iran. The war has produced the largest disruption to global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in modern history. Before… Continue reading How the War is Redefining Gulf Economic Power and Energy Strategy
Why the Gulf Must Build Its Own Economic Playbook
The Arab Gulf region stands at a pivotal moment. After more than five decades of economic planning largely shaped by imported models, external expertise, and prescribed solutions, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are moving into a new phase, one that calls for locally driven economic thinking, greater regional self-reliance, and the confidence to forge an independent path.… Continue reading Why the Gulf Must Build Its Own Economic Playbook
Who Pumps the Oil… and Who Controls It?
Iran’s announcement that “non-hostile vessels” will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz is the latest—and perhaps clearest—illustration of how oil has become a weapon of war. In a letter to the International Maritime Organization, Tehran framed the restriction of certain vessels as a lawful act of self-defense, explicitly linking access to the world’s most critical… Continue reading Who Pumps the Oil… and Who Controls It?
GCC Air Defense Between Challenge and Transformation
The Arab Gulf has entered a critical phase in which its security architecture is being actively reshaped. The expansion of the U.S.–Israeli confrontation with Iran, and the resulting spillover across the region, has moved the Gulf from a peripheral theater to a central arena of escalation. Cross-border attacks targeting vital infrastructure—using ballistic missiles such as… Continue reading GCC Air Defense Between Challenge and Transformation
To Protect Its Strategic Interests, the Gulf Must Form a More Cohesive Bloc
The gravity of war in the Middle East cannot be measured by the depth of depleted arsenals or the number of sorties that streak across its skies, but by the structural imbalances it exposes and the truths it lays bare—truths that have long been hidden behind facades of alliances, agreements, and hollow slogans. The open confrontation unfolding today between the United States and Israel on one… Continue reading To Protect Its Strategic Interests, the Gulf Must Form a More Cohesive Bloc
The Gulf’s Diplomatic Counterstrike at the UNSC
There are no silver linings for the Gulf in the current war, where the human toll and economic disruption are front and center. Yet on the global diplomatic front, the Gulf states leveraged their investments and influence at the United Nations to deliver an historic outcome in support of their security. Bahrain presented Security Council resolution 2817 on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Jordan, adopted… Continue reading The Gulf’s Diplomatic Counterstrike at the UNSC
How the Gulf States Can Navigate the Middle East’s New Alliance Politics
Alliance politics is returning to the Middle East in ways that recall earlier eras of regional competition, but with a far more complex geometry. Recent remarks by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggesting that a broader network of alliances is emerging around Israel, linking partners such as India, Greece, and Cyprus alongside other regional actors, reflect a wider reconfiguration of regional alignments accelerated… Continue reading How the Gulf States Can Navigate the Middle East’s New Alliance Politics
The Gulf Stability Model is Under Pressure
As the war between the United States, Israel and Iran enters its third week, its consequences are continuing to spread well beyond the battlefield. Missile strikes have hit critical infrastructure across the Gulf, while threats against commercial shipping have effectively shut down normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the latter part of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. The commodity pricing agency S&P Global Platts has already suspended… Continue reading The Gulf Stability Model is Under Pressure
Six, or One Bloc of Six?
At first glance, readers might wonder about the meaning of this title and its implications. However, the answer will become clear in the lines that follow, which aim to provide an interpretation that clarifies the title’s significance. As the US–Israeli war against Iran passes its sixteenth day, and despite the uncertainty around its end, it… Continue reading Six, or One Bloc of Six?
Water Must Not Become A Target in the Region’s Wars
In the arid lands of the Arab Gulf, water is often said to be more precious than oil. Over the past half-century, oil revenues have driven rapid population expansion and the construction of modern metropolises. However, freshwater resources are limited, requiring Gulf states to increasingly rely on desalination to survive and thrive. The primacy and scarcity of water have… Continue reading Water Must Not Become A Target in the Region’s Wars
How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
The Israeli-U.S. war on Iran has thrown Gulf societies into a complex state of anxiety and emotional vigilance. This reaction is not merely a response to rapid military developments. It reflects a mindset shaped over decades by historical experience and repeated security crises. As regional tensions escalate and threaten the Gulf’s vital interests, public sentiment… Continue reading How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness
The Costs of the Iran Conflict for the Gulf
In short order, the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has expanded across the region, with Gulf states bearing the brunt of Tehran’s retaliatory campaign aimed at dispersing the costs of the war and pressuring Washington to halt its offensive. This has included targeting energy infrastructure, shipping routes and aviation networks, threatening not only regional stability but… Continue reading The Costs of the Iran Conflict for the Gulf
Avoiding War with Iran Is the Gulf’s Only Winning Move
In the months following Israel’s overwhelmingly disproportionate response to the October 7 attacks, diplomats and international observers repeatedly warned that the war risked expanding beyond Gaza and destabilizing the wider region. Governments and international organizations cautioned that unless the violence was halted, it would inevitably spill across borders and draw neighboring states into confrontation. Israel’s… Continue reading Avoiding War with Iran Is the Gulf’s Only Winning Move
Iran’s Regional Gamble and Its Implications for the Future of Gulf Security
The Iranian leadership made two major strategic mistakes. The first was failing to seize the opportunity to reach an agreement with the United States while the window for negotiations was still open — a step that could have spared the region further tension and instability. The second mistake was targeting the Gulf states, which had… Continue reading Iran’s Regional Gamble and Its Implications for the Future of Gulf Security
Qatar Emerges as an LNG Hedge Against Trade Policy Instability in the U.S.
The Trump administration’s trade policy has become a prominent source of global economic anxiety. Over the past year, the administration has turned tariffs and trade threats into blunt transactional instruments of foreign policy, demanding allies purchase more U.S. commodities—especially liquified natural gas (LNG)—in exchange for market access and political favor. What Washington calls “rebalancing,” many… Continue reading Qatar Emerges as an LNG Hedge Against Trade Policy Instability in the U.S.
Between War and Dialogue: Can a U.S.–Iran Confrontation Be Prevented?
As tensions rise between the United States and Iran, international attention has once again turned toward the Gulf. From maritime security incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz, to renewed sanctions and nuclear threats, this rising escalation between the two actors exposes the region’s fragility. The Gulf is central to global energy flows… Continue reading Between War and Dialogue: Can a U.S.–Iran Confrontation Be Prevented?
Small Tax, Big Bargain: Oman Tests Its Rentier Contract
In June 2025, Oman took a step that no Gulf monarchy had attempted before: announcing plans for direct taxation starting in 2028. At 5 percent on earnings above 42,000 OMR (~$109,000)—roughly the top 1 percent of earners—the financial returns will be modest. The signal, however, is not. By introducing a narrowly targeted personal income tax… Continue reading Small Tax, Big Bargain: Oman Tests Its Rentier Contract
Trumponomics, Tariffs and the Global Flight From the U.S.
The rise of “Trumponomics” has sharply heightened global trade tensions, economic uncertainty and market volatility. It is no overstatement to say that the U.S. administration’s erratic tariffs and policies risk the dissolution of the “rules-based order” established by the U.S. and the West after the second world war, severely eroding America’s global credibility and geopolitical… Continue reading Trumponomics, Tariffs and the Global Flight From the U.S.
The First 100 Days: Trump’s Middle East Policy Revisited
By any standard of the American presidency, the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term have been eventful, to say the least. From the dismantling of government institutions to the imposition of protectionist trade policies to the launching of negotiations with Iran and Russia, the implications of Trump’s early agenda have been far reaching… Continue reading The First 100 Days: Trump’s Middle East Policy Revisited
As Europe Adjusts to Life Without U.S. Security Umbrella, Lessons for GCC Abound
The Trump administration’s decision in early 2025 to suspend military aid to Ukraine—resuming it only after Kyiv agreed to negotiate with Moscow in March—marks a turning point in transatlantic security. It has forced Europe to reassess its strategic posture amid a conflict that began with Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and escalated into a full-scale… Continue reading As Europe Adjusts to Life Without U.S. Security Umbrella, Lessons for GCC Abound
Trump is back. Should Gulf States accelerate decoupling from the U.S.?
Eight weeks into the second Trump presidency, the world’s governments—including those in the Gulf—are still trying to make sense of the chaos in Washington. Domestic politics aside, the new administration’s economic policies have sparked fears of a “Trumpcession” amid an escalating trade war and a falling dollar and stock market. Both consumer and business confidence… Continue reading Trump is back. Should Gulf States accelerate decoupling from the U.S.?
In Multipolar World, Japan and GCC Should Develop Strategic Ties
In December, the Gulf Cooperation Council and Japan concluded their first round of discussions on a free trade agreement (FTA). History suggests this was the start of a process that may take years, if not decades—reaching an FTA between the GCC and South Korea took 15 years, with many bumps along the way. Nevertheless, this… Continue reading In Multipolar World, Japan and GCC Should Develop Strategic Ties
MENA Outlook for 2025
With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025
Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025
Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office reshaped U.S.-Gulf relations. His approach focused on cultivating personal bonds with leaders of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), signing massive arms deals, and for the most part not touching human rights issues. Gulf statesmen mostly welcomed this approach, which provided immediate defense assurances without challenging their sovereignty. However, with… Continue reading Trump 2.0 and the Gulf’s Strategic Future
Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World
When United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) was adopted on October 31, 2000, it marked an unprecedented commitment by the international community to regard women as integral partners in peace processes. The WPS “agenda,” as it came to be known, encompasses ten UNSC resolutions that recognize the devastating… Continue reading Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World
Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions
The Saudi-Iranian renormalization agreement of March 2023 was a watershed in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. Yet while China received much of the credit for the reconciliation, which cooled the flames of one of the region’s most tense rivalries, the previous two years of heavy lifting had largely been the work of Iraq and the Sultanate… Continue reading Oman’s Quiet Role in Calming Regional Tensions
Trump Redux Could Bring in the Law of Unintended Consequences
One hundred days ahead of elections in November, former U.S. president Donald Trump is polling strongly despite the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat candidate. What would the implications be for us in the Gulf and around the world of a Trump presidency redux? From public statements and his record in the… Continue reading Trump Redux Could Bring in the Law of Unintended Consequences
The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
We at Afkār are delighted to announce that we have reached a new milestone, our 100th post! To mark the occasion, we have recorded and transcribed a special interview with the Director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Tarik M. Yousef. The in-depth interview was conducted by our editor, Omar H. Rahman, and… Continue reading The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts
Economic Diversification is the GCC’s Top Priority
It is a paradoxical truth that nations highly dependent on natural resources tend to be poor economic performers. Such countries are exposed to ongoing adverse shocks, including price jolts, volatile demand and supply, and natural disasters. These factors can stir up macroeconomic instability and higher economic risks – otherwise known as the “natural resource curse”. … Continue reading Economic Diversification is the GCC’s Top Priority