MENA Outlook for 2025

With the December collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, 2024 came to a close in a dramatic and region-altering fashion. This, along with the numerous other major trend lines and points of conflict, likely makes 2025 a year that will be significant in reshaping the region’s future. Looking forward to what may be coming,… Continue reading MENA Outlook for 2025

With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?

Men wave Iranian flags and flags of Lebanon's Hezbollah during a pro-government rally in southern Tehran, Iran, on December 29, 2024. The 9th of Dey Rally commemorates the pro-government rallies held on December 30, 2009, which are a response to the Ashura protests amid Iran's 2009 post-presidential election unrest. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto) (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Iran’s regional policy is on the backfoot. Years of patronage and investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of friendly actors that share Iran’s hostility toward U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, has unraveled in a short period of time and caught the Iranian regime off guard. While Iran’s leadership scrambles for a response,… Continue reading With the Axis of Resistance in Retreat, How Will the Iranian People Respond?

Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

Traders observe the stock market at Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) during the official listing ceremony for Meeza QSTP LLC (Public) at the Qatar Stock Exchange in Doha, Qatar on 23 August 2023 (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil/NurPhoto) (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Despite the turmoil rocking the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there may be some glimmers of hope for the region’s economies in 2025. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are both projecting an uptick in growth in most MENA economies. However, structural challenges, political instability, and geopolitical tensions will continue to… Continue reading Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Jordanians chant slogans during a demonstration near the Embassy of Israel in Amman on March 28, 2024, in support of Palestinians amid ongoing battles between Israel and the militant Hamas group in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by Khalil MAZRAAWI / AFP)

Editor’s Note  The relevance of public opinion in the Middle East and North Africa is a question often debated but little understood. Given the high prevalence of autocracy, surveys of popular sentiment are limited, while freedoms of speech and press are not the norm. Indeed, as thousands of political prisoners freed in recent days from… Continue reading Arab Public Opinion Under Pressure

Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

People drive past buildings, destroyed during the war between Hezbollah and Israel, in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on December 1, 2024. - The Israeli military carried out air strikes in Lebanon on December 1 against Hezbollah activities that it said "posed a threat", days into a fragile ceasefire between it and the Iran-backed group. (Photo by Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)

After more than a year of hostilities that intensified dramatically in recent months, Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, but the fragile agreement has already been tested by reported violations. In this interview with Afkār, Saoud El Mawla, visiting senior fellow at the ME Council, examines the deal’s significance and durability, as well… Continue reading Can the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hold?

Trump Must Focus on Rebuilding a War-Torn Middle East

An arial view shows destoyed buildings in al-Zahra city south of Gaza City on October 20, 2023 following Israeli bombardment overnight amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. Thousands of people, both Israeli and Palestinians have died since October 7, 2023, after Palestinian Hamas militants based in the Gaza Strip, entered southern Israel in a surprise attack leading Israel to declare war on Hamas in Gaza on October 8. (Photo by Belal ALSABBAGH / AFP)

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has become the first Republican candidate in 20 years to win the popular vote. His historic win hands him control of the Senate, Congress and the Republican party, along with a strongly conservative-leaning Supreme Court. How will this power be deployed? If we take Trump’s election rhetoric literally, his “Maganomics” agenda will be… Continue reading Trump Must Focus on Rebuilding a War-Torn Middle East

Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East

On November 6, within hours of closing the polls, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a wide margin. Trump’s remarkable triumph, which will return him to the White House after his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020, comes at a… Continue reading Trump’s Return and Implications for the Middle East

Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World

When United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) was adopted on October 31, 2000, it marked an unprecedented commitment by the international community to regard women as integral partners in peace processes. The WPS “agenda,” as it came to be known, encompasses ten UNSC resolutions that recognize the devastating… Continue reading Adapting the Women, Peace and Security Agenda to the Arab World

Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis

A major humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Lebanon. Israel’s attacks have exacted a heavy toll with over 2,000 people killed and 9,000 wounded. The last two weeks have wreaked severe damage on core infrastructure, public utilities, water, sanitation, power and roads. The country’s health system has also been degraded. Much of Beirut’s Dahiyeh and South Lebanon stands… Continue reading Lebanon Conflict Will Only Exacerbate Existing Economic Crisis

A Region Under Fire

Editor’s Note: There Are No Winners Here  Omar H. Rahman, Fellow and Editor of Afkār, Middle East Council on Global Affairs   The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023. Decades of military occupation, colonial land theft and systemic deprivation had already pushed Palestinians into a state of constant struggle, laying the groundwork… Continue reading A Region Under Fire

Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?

In the aftermath of Israel’s successful assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and as Israel begins its ground incursion in parts of southern Lebanon, two interrelated issues emerge.   First, the status of Hezbollah and its future role in Lebanon and the region come into question. While Nasrallah’s assassination dealt a significant blow to the… Continue reading Can Hezbollah Regroup as Israel Begins Ground Incursion?

Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah

BEIRUT, LEBANON - (ARCHIVE): A file photo dated July 23, 2006 shows a Lebanese man showing a poster of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that he found among the rubble of his house as he came to Haret Hreik area to find his belongings in the rubble in Dahiyeh neighborhood which has been bombed by Israeli warplanes for days, in Beirut, Lebanon. Riza Ozel / Anadolu (Photo by RIZA OZEL / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

On September 28, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah following a massive Israeli airstrike in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. The assassination of Nasrallah follows a series of escalatory measures that includes the disruption of Hezbollah’s communication network through an explosive pager operation, the assassinations of other senior leaders in the… Continue reading Interview: Hezbollah After Nasrallah

Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”

TEHRAN, IRAN - SEPTEMBER 29: A view of the front pages of the newspapers featured news about the death of Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli strike in the Lebanese capital on Friday, at a store in Tehran, Iran on September 29, 2024. Fatemeh Bahrami / Anadolu (Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its attacks in Lebanon, dealing a critical blow to much of Hezbollah’s top military leadership, including the late Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In this interview with Afkār, Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert and security analyst, offers his insights on Tehran’s strategic calculus at this watershed moment, including on… Continue reading Interview: A Step Back for Iran’s “Forward Defense”

Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?

Rescuers sift through the rubble at the scene of an Israeli strike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs a day earlier, as search and rescue operations continue on September 21, 2024. - Lebanon's Hezbollah said on September 21 that a second senior commander was among 16 fighters killed in an Israeli air strike on its Beirut stronghold the previous day, highlighting the scale of the blow to its military leadership. (Photo by AFP)

On September 23, Israel began a major military offensive against Lebanon that left around 500 people dead, mainly civilians, and caused mass panic across the south of the country. This followed days of strikes against Hezbollah commanders and a surprise attack on Hezbollah personnel by triggering the explosion of thousands of low-tech communications devices like… Continue reading Interview: Israel and Hezbollah Enter a New Stage of War. What’s Next?

How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War

A student holds up a mock missile during a demonstration by students and university professors, mainly Houthi supporters, in solidarity with Palestinians at the campus of Sanaa University in Sanaa, Yemen August 21, 2024. REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah - RC28K9AF63LK

For weeks, the Middle East has been on edge as Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah prepare to retaliate against Israel for assassinating two high-level figures in their respective capitals, Tehran and Beirut. Frantic diplomacy and renewed momentum around Gaza ceasefire negotiations initially delayed the response, which has the potential to push the region over the brink… Continue reading How the Houthis Have Changed the Landscape of Regional War

Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?

Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in south Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 19, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by RABIH DAHER / AFP) / “The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by RABIH DAHER has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [June 19] instead of [June 8]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require.”

In a speech a week after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, the Lebanese movement’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah remarked that “the resistance is not interested in using any victory over Israel for domestic political purposes.”   Ten months into Israel’s war of annihilation against the Gaza Strip and its campaign of killings in the… Continue reading Lebanon’s Political Crisis Hinges On an End to War. What Will Come Next?

Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation

Hezbollah fighters carry the casket of slain top commander Fuad Shukr, during his funeral procession in Beirut's southern suburbs on August 1, 2024. - Hezbollah on August 1 mourned Shukr, whose body was recovered from the rubble of a July 30 Israeli strike in south Beirut that also killed five civilians, three women and two children, and injured dozens, according to Lebanon's health ministry, as fears mounted of a wider conflict in the region. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)

Despite renewed international mediation efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah insists that it will respond forcefully to Israel’s assassination of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in the movement’s stronghold in southern Beirut. Since Shukr’s killing, and that of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, outside actors have stepped up efforts to… Continue reading Iran and Hezbollah Weigh Responses to Israel: Retaliation vs. Mediation

Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views

People hold up the Palestinian flag and a portrait of assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh Hamas chief during a rally at Tehran University, in the Iranian capital Tehran on July 31, 2024, as Iran declares three days of mourning. (Photo by AFP)

On July 31, Hamas’ politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran shortly after attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. Just hours before, an Israeli drone strike killed one of the founders of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a southern suburb of Beirut. The dual assassinations occurred during an escalation in the fighting between… Continue reading Targeted Assassinations and the Threat of Regional War – Council Views

Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region? 

(FILES) This handout picture provided by the Iranian foreign ministry on February 13, 2024, shows Hamas' political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh preparing to welcome the Iranian Foreign Minister in Doha. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said July 31, 2024 that the chief of the Palestinian Hamas militant group, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran along with one of his bodyguards. (Photo by Iranian Foreign Ministry / AFP) / === RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / HO / IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS ===

On July 31, Hamas’ top political leader, Ismael Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran while attending the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. The assassination came hours after Israel launched a drone strike in Beirut, killing the high-ranking Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr and others. The pair of assassinations come amid mounting regional tensions as Israel’s… Continue reading Interview: Haniyeh Assassination: What Is Next for Gaza and the Region? 

Interview: The View from MENA on France’s Elections Results

PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 08: A man reads 'Le Parisien' newspaper, seen the day after the second round of the French legislative election in the 11th Arrondissement of Paris, on July 5, 2024, in Paris, France. (Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto) (Photo by Artur Widak / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

During recent elections to the European Parliament, France’s far right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party led by Marine Le Pen won a resounding victory. In a surprise response, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved his country’s parliament and called for immediate elections. Yet, despite a strong showing in the first round, the National Rally ultimately came… Continue reading Interview: The View from MENA on France’s Elections Results

EU Aid for Syrian Refugees: Addressing Ongoing Needs in Türkiye and Lebanon

In this picture taken on June 13, 2023, Syrian children gather between tents at a refugee camp in Saadnayel in eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. Lebanese authorities say the country hosts around two million Syrians, while more than 800,000 are registered with the United Nations, the highest number of refugees per capita in the world. But amid a crushing economic crisis that has pushed most of Lebanon into poverty, anti-Syrian sentiment has soared, the government has called for refugees to leave and security forces have deported dozens to Syria this year alone. (Photo by ANWAR AMRO / AFP)

In late May of this year, the European Union and other international donors pledged €7.5 billion ($8 billion) in grants and loans to support millions of Syrians displaced within and beyond the country’s borders by a devastating 13-year civil war. The seemingly vast sum pledged at the Brussels conference on “Supporting the future of Syria… Continue reading EU Aid for Syrian Refugees: Addressing Ongoing Needs in Türkiye and Lebanon

The (Surprising) Silence of Arab Universities on Palestine

Students at the American University of Beirut are carrying banners as they attend a pro-Palestinian demonstration on the campus in Beirut, Lebanon, on May 7, 2024. (Photo by Fadel Itani/NurPhoto) (Photo by Fadel Itani / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Since mid-April 2024, western academic institutions, including elite American universities, have been at the forefront of protests for Palestine. Yet, their Arab counterparts have surprisingly remained silent. The disengagement is particularly noteworthy considering that Middle Eastern universities have historically been the hotbeds of protests and engagement concerning the Palestinian cause. This absence is also at… Continue reading The (Surprising) Silence of Arab Universities on Palestine

The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts

We at Afkār are delighted to announce that we have reached a new milestone, our 100th post! To mark the occasion, we have recorded and transcribed a special interview with the Director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Tarik M. Yousef. The in-depth interview was conducted by our editor, Omar H. Rahman, and… Continue reading The Middle East in the Wake of October 7: Interview with Tarik M. Yousef Marking 100 Afkār Posts

Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views

TEHRAN, IRAN - APRIL 14: A new wall mural is displayed at Palestine Square picturing Iran's attack on Israel in Tehran, Iran on April 14, 2024. Haydar Sahin / Anadolu (Photo by Haydar Sahin / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

On April 13, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time in its history, retaliating for Israel’s killing of three top Iranian commanders in Damascus on April 1. Israel has since responded with a limited strike, and the United States and its allies imposed expanded sanctions on Iran. Middle East Council scholars examine the implications… Continue reading Iran-Israel Tensions Emerge from the Shadows – Council Views

Is a Regional War Inescapable?

SANAA, YEMEN - FEBRUARY 09: Thousands of Houthi supporters, holding Yemen and Palestine flags, gather at the Sebin Square to stage a solidarity demonstration with Palestinians and protest against the Israeli attacks on Gaza on February 09, 2024 in Sanaa, Yemen. Demonstrators, carrying banners, chanted slogans against the USA and Israel during the demonstration. Mohammed Hamoud / Anadolu (Photo by Mohammed Hamoud / ANADOLU / Anadolu via AFP)

Since October, the Middle East has edged ever closer to a regional war unlike any it has experienced before. While there has been plenty of armed hostility over the past 75 years, including between multiple state and non-state actors, the ambit of conflict this time around is so sweeping that it risks engulfing the entire… Continue reading Is a Regional War Inescapable?

A Ceasefire in Gaza is the only Bridge toward Durable Peace in the Middle East

11 November 2023, Berlin: A participant in a demonstration holds a placard with the words "Ceasefire Now!". The organizers want to demonstrate against the "ongoing violation of human rights". The demonstration is also being called for by pro-Palestinian groups. Photo: Christophe Gateau/dpa (Photo by Christophe Gateau / DPA / dpa Picture-Alliance via AFP)

The shocking and unprecedented attack by Hamas on southern Israel caught the technologically advanced Israeli army and security forces by surprise. Hamas’s initial assault killed more than 1,400 Israelis, and thousands of Palestinians have been killed as Israel has retaliated in Gaza. Israel has said hundreds of hostages are being held in Gaza. In addition… Continue reading A Ceasefire in Gaza is the only Bridge toward Durable Peace in the Middle East

Lebanon Treads a Narrow Path to Avoid Regional War

A picture taken on July 3, 2022 from the Israeli Kibutz of Baram, shows the flags of (L to R) Lebanon, Hezbollah and Palestine swaying in the wind on the Lebanese side of the border with Israel. The Israeli army said on July 2, that it had intercepted three drones launched by Hezbollah that were headed towards an offshore gas field in the Mediterranean, amid rising tension between Israel and Lebanon. Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah movement in a statement confirmed it had launched drones towards the offshore area. (Photo by JALAA MAREY / AFP)

Two weeks into the unfolding crisis in Palestine-Israel, and Lebanon is edging ever closer to the abyss of a war it cannot afford to fight. While there is a narrow, difficult path to avoid this outcome, options are dwindling with each passing day and the prospect of an escalation that consumes the region looms large.   … Continue reading Lebanon Treads a Narrow Path to Avoid Regional War

The Saudi-Iranian Deal Is Important, but Don’t Expect a Wider Peace

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang shake hands during a meeting in Beijing, China, April 6, 2023. Iran's Foreign Ministry/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY - RC2U80A5199H

The March 6 announcement that Saudi Arabia and Iran were re-establishing diplomatic ties was an important moment for the Middle East. The Chinese-brokered deal has the potential to end the devastating eight-year conflict in Yemen and address geopolitical tensions elsewhere. From the Saudi perspective, it may end Iranian proxy attacks on Saudi oil facilities, including… Continue reading The Saudi-Iranian Deal Is Important, but Don’t Expect a Wider Peace

MENA Outlook 2023 – Council Views

Beirut, Lebanon - July 3 2021: Tens of cars line up near the very few open gas stations in Lebanon. Drivers wait for hours due to fuel shortage.

In various ways, 2022 was arguably a positive year in much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The COVID-19 pandemic subsided in many states and the intensity of violence ebbed in several conflict zones. Competition between regional powers receded and gave way to an increase in diplomacy and rapprochement. However, with a… Continue reading MENA Outlook 2023 – Council Views