Toward a New Middle East?

The Middle East stands at a critical inflection point in its modern security history. Following a large-scale escalation involving the United States and Israel — including direct strikes on Iranian leadership and military infrastructure and the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — the region faces profound uncertainty. Tehran has responded with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. assets and regional partners, while heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about maritime security and the stability of global energy markets. Simultaneously, renewed hostilities involving Iran-aligned actors in Lebanon and intensified exchanges between Hezbollah and Israeli forces signal the risk of broader regional spillover.

Beyond the immediate military exchanges, the death of Iran’s long-serving Supreme Leader introduces a consequential internal dimension. Questions surrounding succession, elite cohesion, and the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will shape not only Iran’s domestic trajectory but also its regional posture. Will Tehran adopt a more confrontational strategy to consolidate internal authority, or could leadership transition generate recalibration in foreign policy priorities?

Against this backdrop, the Middle East Council on Global Affairs (ME Council) will convene an online expert panel to assess how these developments may reshape the regional order and the security architecture that underpins it. The discussion will examine whether the current escalation represents a breakdown of established deterrence frameworks or the emergence of a more volatile balance of power. Panelists will explore how regional middle powers are recalibrating their strategies, how patterns of alignment may evolve, and what role external actors will play in structuring the next phase of regional security.

Particular attention will be devoted to the Gulf region. As U.S. military facilities across the Gulf face direct threats and energy markets confront renewed volatility, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states must navigate heightened risk while reassessing long-term defense strategies. Will this crisis accelerate deeper regional defense integration? Will Gulf states diversify security partnerships beyond traditional alliances? And what might a more autonomous, regionally driven security architecture look like in practice?

Bringing together leading regional and international experts, this timely discussion will provide forward-looking analysis of the strategic shifts now underway and their implications for the future stability of the Middle East.