Iran at a Crossroads: Will Domestic Unrest Reshape the Region?

Protests in Iran continue to intensify amid deepening economic pressures and growing frustration with the Government. Domestic unrest is unfolding against a volatile regional and international backdrop. Regionally, Iran has suffered significant losses since October 2023, with its network of allied actors either decimated or severely weakened in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Yemen.

At the international level, Washington’s intervention in Venezuela highlighted the Trump administration’s willingness to use force to pursue its objectives. Iran was attacked by both the United States and Israel last year, and Tehran’s efforts to re-establish deterrence have since faced serious challenges. Rising regional tensions and the prospect of a renewed confrontation between Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv leave an uncertain future for the region. Together, these dynamics raise critical questions around Iran’s domestic stability and wider regional security.

To explore these developments, the Middle East Council on Global Affairs (ME Council) convened a panel of experts to offer regional and international perspectives on this evolving landscape and its implications for Iran and the Middle East at large. The discussion explored key questions, including: How will the current protests shape Iran’s domestic political landscape and regime stability? To what extent could internal unrest influence Iran’s external posture, including its reliance on allied regional groups, and its capacity for deterrence and escalation? What risks would an escalation pose to neighboring states? What precedents do recent global developments set for coercive diplomacy, and how could it impact the Iranian context?