Operation Rising Lion and the Gulf’s Balancing Act

In mid‑June 2025, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” a coordinated strike targeting Iranian nuclear and military facilities, citing imminent threats from Tehran’s advancing nuclear program. This marked a dramatic escalation in the Iran–Israel shadow war, igniting a brief but intense regional conflict. Iran responded with missile barrages on Israeli cities, while Israel continued its assault. As the confrontation deepened, the U.S. entered the conflict in support of Israel, striking key Iranian nuclear facilities in “Operation Midnight Hammer.” In response, Iran launched a missile attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, exposing the vulnerability of American assets in the Gulf. As fears of broader war intensified, Qatar, leveraging its diplomatic ties with both Washington and Tehran, played a key mediating role, leading to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that brought the 12-day confrontation to a pause. Together, these events have raised questions on military vulnerability, deterrence, and the evolving regional security landscape especially for gulf states.

In this context, the Middle East Council on Global Affairs (ME Council) will host a webinar to assess the fallout of the recent Iran-Israel confrontation and its broader implications. Panelists will explore key questions, including: What does the Iranian strike on Al Udeid signal about shifting threat perceptions and the credibility of U.S. security guarantees? How are Gulf states recalibrating their military and diplomatic strategies in response to new risks, including proxy activity from groups like the Houthis? How did Qatar navigate its delicate role as both host to CENTCOM and a trusted interlocutor with Tehran? What does this crisis reveal about the future of Iran’s nuclear file, and what paths lie ahead for a more permanent ceasefire or the revival of a nuclear deal? What political, strategic, and regional challenges stand in the way of such efforts?