Syria Post-Assad: Scenarios and Regional Dynamics

The Middle East Council on Global Affairs (ME Council) in partnership with the Politics and Society Institute (PSI) organized a two-day dialogue meeting to examine Syria’s evolving political landscape under the transitional administration of President Ahmed al-Sharaa, former leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Discussions centered on current realities and future prospects as efforts advance to convene a landmark national dialogue, establish security institutions, and unify armed factions into a national army. The meeting took place at a time when the transitional government is seeking regional and international support.

Participants explored immediate and medium-term political, security, and economic scenarios for post-Assad Syria.

Employing a Track II methodology, the dialogue also examined the roles of key regional actors, including Türkiye, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, the Gulf states, and Egypt, in shaping Syria’s transition. Attendees developed actionable policy recommendations to foster multilateral cooperation, addressing challenges and seizing opportunities during this transformative period. The event brought together diverse regional and international actors to analyze Syria’s evolving landscape from multiple perspectives and its broader implications for the MENA region. It underscored the importance of strategic pathways for Syria’s future and the role of regional and international stakeholders in supporting this critical, hopeful, yet challenging moment in the Middle East’s history.