Iran in the Middle East:

In collaboration with the Middle East Studies Forum (MESF) at Deakin University, the Middle East Council on Global Affairs (ME Council) hosted an online panel discussion on “Iran’s role in the Middle East: Building Bridges or Expanding Influence?” The event marked the launch of an ME Council dossier encompassing the same topic, edited by Shahram Akbarzadeh, a nonresident senior fellow at the ME Council, and Hamidreza Azizi, a nonresident fellow at the ME Council. Shahram Akbarzadeh moderated the event and highlighted the session’s significance against the backdrop of escalating regional tensions amid the ongoing war in Gaza. The panel featured Hamidreza Azizi alongside experts Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, and Azadeh Zamirirad, deputy head of the Africa and the Middle East division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).  

Azadeh Zamirirad began the discussion by emphasizing a pivotal shift in Iran’s foreign policy from strategic patience to a more assertive approach, underscored by recent confrontations with Israel. She detailed how external pressures, such as sanctions, and internal factors, including political succession and public unrest, have influenced Iran’s foreign policy. Zamirirad argued that these dynamics have pushed Iran towards a revisionist approach, seeking to reshape the global order, and accelerated a shift towards alliances with Eastern powers through the “Look East” policy. 

Mehran Kamrava expanded on Iran’s regional aspirations through the lens of the “Good Neighbor” policy, highlighting Tehran’s strategic re-engagement with neighboring states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Kamrava pointed out the pragmatic shifts in Iran’s diplomacy, particularly in light of the reduced military support from the United States (U.S.) for Gulf states. He also touched on Tehran’s complex relationships with Türkiye and Pakistan, which potentially signal a broader recalibration. 

Hamidreza Azizi then focused on the tactical aspects of the Iran-Israel conflict, particularly the implications of Hamas’s October 7 attack and subsequent Israeli actions. He noted that Russia’s role as a potential de-escalator has diminished since the onset of the war in Ukraine, which has further complicated Middle Eastern dynamics. Azizi emphasized that the lack of deterrence on both sides sets new rules of engagement, potentially leading to a more volatile regional security environment. 

In the question and answer session, Kamrava responded to the first question by highlighting Qatar’s nuanced relations with regional powers. While Qatar maintains warm ties with Iran, these relationships are mainly superficial, shaped by Doha’s need to balance its strong security alliances with the United States against its regional ties. Qatar’s mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas exemplify this balancing act, where it faces significant pressure from the U.S. to influence the outcomes, particularly concerning the release of hostages. Iran’s direct warning to regional states about the potential targeting of U.S. bases on their soil if used in attacks against Iran further complicates this balancing act. This threat represents a significant departure from previous diplomatic caution, signaling a more assertive stance in Iran’s regional engagements. 

Azizi then turned the discussion to Iran’s support for proxies, particularly in Iraq and Yemen, which he noted extends beyond mere neighborly relations into strategic, security, and economic realms. Tehran’s complex relationships with various Iraqi groups and the Houthis in Yemen underscore its substantial regional influence, which has been a contentious point in Saudi-Iran relations. The recent ceasefire agreement between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia was highlighted as a positive resolution to some of these tensions, suggesting a potential for more regional stability. However, the broad influence of Iran-backed groups introduces complexities in understanding the full scope and long-term implications of Tehran’s regional influence. 

In response to inquiries about the potential emergence of a unified bloc following the Abraham Accords, Zamirirad expressed skepticism. She noted that while there is a trend towards de-escalation and conflict management among Arab states and Iran, these efforts fall short of forming a cohesive alliance with shared norms and interests. The prevailing view among regional states is to see each other as competitors rather than allies. Zamirirad emphasized that the normalization agreements are more about pragmatically managing conflicts rather than establishing any substantive alliance. She argued that Iran’s strategic focus remains aligned with global powers like Russia and China, which Tehran perceives as capable of influencing the global order, rather than forming a new geopolitical bloc. 

These discussions highlight the blend of strategic interests, diplomacy, and the evolving nature of alliances in the Middle East. Iran’s regional strategy, marked by confrontations and emerging diplomatic engagements, underscores a transitional phase in its foreign policy. The implications of these strategies are profound, potentially reshaping the regional security landscape and influencing future geopolitical alignments. Throughout the discussion, panelists concurred that Iran’s regional maneuvers are indicative of a broader strategy aimed both at immediate gains and reshaping its long-term strategic environment by strengthening economic partnerships with Eastern powers, enhancing its military capabilities, and leveraging relationships with non-state actors in the region.