{"id":480172,"date":"2026-07-28T08:45:31","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T08:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/?post_type=publication&#038;p=480172"},"modified":"2026-07-28T08:51:33","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T08:51:33","slug":"%d8%a5%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%b1%d8%a8%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%af","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/publication\/%d8%a5%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%b1%d8%a8%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%af\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u0645\u0646 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\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0647\u064a\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0645\u064a\u0642\u0629\u060c \u0644\u0643\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0645\u062a\u0644\u0643 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0631\u0635\u064a\u062f\u0627\u064b \u0643\u0627\u0645\u0646\u0627\u064b \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0639\u0632\u0651\u0632 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0634\u0645\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0648\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0645\u0648\u062f. \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u060c \u062a\u0632\u062e\u0631 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u0631\u0623\u0633\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0634\u0631\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062a\u0645\u062a\u0651\u0639 \u0628\u0645\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u062c\u063a\u0631\u0627\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a \u064a\u0631\u0628\u0637 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\u064a\u0633\u0644\u0651\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0648\u0621 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0627\u0641\u0630\u0629 \u0641\u0631\u0635 \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0625\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0625\u0635\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0624\u0633\u0633\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0628\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0643\u064a\u0651\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"rtl\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0648\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u063a\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0647\u064a\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u0633\u062e\u0629\u060c \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0632\u0627\u0644 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0641\u0631\u0635\u0629 \u0623\u0645\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0636\u064a \u0646\u062d\u0648 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0627\u064b \u0641\u064a \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639. \u0648\u064a\u062a\u062c\u0644\u0649 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0648\u0636\u0648\u062d\u060c \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0628\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0634\u0647\u062f\u0647\u0627 \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0627.<a href=\"#endnote15\"><sup>15<\/sup><\/a> \u0644\u0639\u0644\u0651 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0644\u0627 \u0633\u064a\u0651\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0636\u0648\u0621 \u0633\u062a\u0629 \u0639\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a \u064813 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0647\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0645\u0651\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062e\u0644\u0651\u0644\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u064a\u0641\u0629\u060c \u062a\u064f\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0623\u0646\u0651 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0635\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u0647\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062c\u0651\u0647\u0629 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0634\u0642\u0651 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0646\u062d\u0648 \u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0623\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u062a\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629\u060c \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0627 \u0641\u062d\u0633\u0628\u060c \u0628\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a \u0628\u0631\u0645\u062a\u0647\u0627.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0647\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0634<\/strong><\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote1\">1<\/sup> William L. Cleveland and Martin Bunton, <em>A History of the Modern Middle East<\/em>, 6th ed. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2016).<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote2\">2<\/sup> Samir Makdisi and Youssef El-Khalil, <em>Lebanon: The Legacy of Sectarian Consociationalism and the Transition to a Fully-fledged Democracy<\/em>, Working Paper Series no. 14 (Beirut: Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut, March 2013), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aub.edu.lb\/ifi\/Documents\/20130301samir_makdesi_youssef_khalil_rapp_wp.pdf\">https:\/\/www.aub.edu.lb\/ifi\/Documents\/20130301samir_makdesi_youssef_khalil_rapp_wp.pdf<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote3\">3<\/sup> Omar Dahi, &#8220;Syrian Refugees and the Regional Crisis,&#8221; Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 30, 2014, <a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/russia-eurasia\/research\/2014\/12\/syrian-refugees-and-the-regional-crisis\">https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/russia-eurasia\/research\/2014\/12\/syrian-refugees-and-the-regional-crisis<\/a>; World Bank and UNHCR, <em>The Welfare of Syrian Refugees: Evidence from Jordan and Lebanon<\/em> (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/topic\/poverty\/publication\/the-welfare-of-syrian-refugees-evidence-from-jordan-and-lebanon\">https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/topic\/poverty\/publication\/the-welfare-of-syrian-refugees-evidence-from-jordan-and-lebanon<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote4\">4<\/sup> United States, The White House, <em>National Security Strategy of the United States of America<\/em> (Washington, DC: The White House, December 2025), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf\">https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote5\">5<\/sup> Ibid.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote6\">6<\/sup> &#8220;T\u00fcrkiye Charts a Distinctive Course amid Middle East Turmoil,&#8221; International Crisis Group, May 5, 2026, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.crisisgroup.org\/cmt\/europe\/turkiye-israelpalestine-iran-united-states\/turkiye-charts-distinctive-course-amid-middle-east-turmoil\">https:\/\/www.crisisgroup.org\/cmt\/europe\/turkiye-israelpalestine-iran-united-states\/turkiye-charts-distinctive-course-amid-middle-east-turmoil<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote7\">7<\/sup> Hugo Bachega, &#8220;Hezbollah at Crossroads after Blows from War Weaken Group,&#8221; <em>BBC News<\/em>, April 4, 2025, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cy48l4wk7mko\">https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cy48l4wk7mko<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote8\">8<\/sup> Kheder Khaddour, &#8220;An Army of &#8216;Sons of the Regions&#8217;: Syria&#8217;s Post-Assad Military Order,&#8221; Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 1, 2026, <a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/research\/2026\/06\/an-army-of-sons-of-the-regions-syrias-post-assad-military-order\">https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/research\/2026\/06\/an-army-of-sons-of-the-regions-syrias-post-assad-military-order<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote9\">9<\/sup> Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt, <em>Pieces in Motion: Rebalancing Power in a New Levantine Order<\/em>, Policy Brief (European Council on Foreign Relations, May 2025), <a href=\"https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Pieces-in-motion-Rebalancing-power-in-a-new-Levantine-order.pdf\">https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Pieces-in-motion-Rebalancing-power-in-a-new-Levantine-order.pdf<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote10\">10<\/sup> Ibid.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote11\">11<\/sup> Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, <em>Constitutions and Democratic Transition in the Arab Region<\/em> (Doha: Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, 2020), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dohainstitute.org\/en\/Lists\/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary\/Constiutions-and-Democratic-Transition-in-the-Arab-Region-Booklet-En.pdf\">https:\/\/www.dohainstitute.org\/en\/Lists\/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary\/Constiutions-and-Democratic-Transition-in-the-Arab-Region-Booklet-En.pdf<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote12\">12<\/sup> Nourah Shuaibi, &#8220;The Distant Anchor: How Diasporas Can Stabilize Fragile States,&#8221; Middle East Council on Global Affairs, October 2025, <a href=\"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/publication\/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d8%b9%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%ac%d9%8a-%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%82%d9%8a%d9%82-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%82\/\">https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/publication\/the-distant-anchor-how-diasporas-can-stabilize-fragile-states\/<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote13\">13<\/sup> Haid Haid, &#8220;Cutting Lifelines: How Humanitarian Aid Reductions Threaten Survival in Northwest Syria,&#8221; The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, May 23, 2024, <a href=\"https:\/\/timep.org\/2024\/05\/23\/cutting-lifelines-how-humanitarian-aid-reductions-threaten-survival-in-northwest-syria\/\">https:\/\/timep.org\/2024\/05\/23\/cutting-lifelines-how-humanitarian-aid-reductions-threaten-survival-in-northwest-syria\/<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote14\">14<\/sup> &#8220;Hezbollah Maintains Influence through Social Services State Cannot Provide,&#8221; <em>The Arab Weekly<\/em>, August 12, 2025, <a href=\"https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/hezbollah-maintains-influence-through-social-services-state-cannot-provide\">https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/hezbollah-maintains-influence-through-social-services-state-cannot-provide<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup id=\"endnote15\">15<\/sup> Mirette Magdy, &#8220;Syria Sees Economic Growth Doubling to Near 10% After Trump Eased Sanctions,&#8221; <em>Bloomberg<\/em>, February 12, 2026, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-12\/syria-sees-economic-growth-doubling-to-near-10-after-trump-eased-sanctions\">https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-12\/syria-sees-economic-growth-doubling-to-near-10-after-trump-eased-sanctions<\/a>.<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u064a\u062d\u0644\u0651\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0634\u0647\u062f\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0643\u062a\u0648\u0628\u0631 2023\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639 \u0646\u0641\u0648\u0630 \u062d\u0632\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647 \u0648\u0633\u0642\u0648\u0637 \u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0648\u0643\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0625\u0635\u0644\u0627\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0633\u0633\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0625\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0639\u0644\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0639\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0631\u0648\u0637 \u0628\u0648\u0635\u0641\u0647\u0627 \u0631\u0643\u0627\u0626\u0632 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0645\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":480183,"template":"","categories":[64],"institution":[],"geographic_area":[],"programs":[],"publication_type":[90],"class_list":["post-480172","publication","type-publication","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-64","publication_type-90","entry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/480172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publication"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/480183"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=480172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=480172"},{"taxonomy":"institution","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/institution?post=480172"},{"taxonomy":"geographic_area","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geographic_area?post=480172"},{"taxonomy":"programs","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/programs?post=480172"},{"taxonomy":"publication_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mecouncil.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type?post=480172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}