Ceasefire’s Chokepoint: What Will it Take to Re-Open the Strait of Hormuz?

The announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has momentarily paused active hostilities; but the strategic weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz remains a primary tension point. While Tehran has conditionally agreed to allow vessel passage during this period, it has already fundamentally redefined the dynamics of this integral maritime corridor. The institution of military management and the imposition of transit fees signal potential structural shifts in the management of this critical node that will ultimately shape the future of global energy and trade security.

Against this backdrop, the Middle East Council on Global Affairs (ME Council) convened a panel of experts to examine the economic, political, and security implications of the future of this key maritime chokepoint. Panelists discussed various questions, including how Iranian control of the strait is recalibrating the global economy? What are the primary military and technical hurdles to securitizing Hormuz? How will these dynamics shape the future of Iran-GCC relations? And will the transformation of the Strait into a tool of political leverage permanently alter the strategic architecture of this critical maritime corridor?

Camille Lons, Policy Fellow and Deputy Head, Paris Office, European Council on Foreign Relations 

• The conflict has re-exposed Europe’s structural vulnerability to energy price shocks, with the primary risk stemming from global price surges driving inflation and industrial costs, not Gulf supply dependence.  

• Rising energy prices are intensifying political pressures within Europe, contributing to populism and undermining intra-EU solidarity on energy and broader policy coordination. 

• The Iran war is indirectly affecting the war in Ukraine by increasing Russian revenues through higher energy prices, thus weakening the impact of Western sanctions. 

• Long-term energy transition policies are facing uncertainty; the Iran war presents a moment to transition towards renewable energy sources, or it could help lessen the existing EU regulations regarding fossil fuels. 

• U.S. policy ambiguity, Iran’s persistence, and risks of escalation in the Gulf and Red Sea have complicated conflict resolution and heightened regional insecurity. 

• Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and the erosion of norms around targeting Gulf infrastructure threaten global trade flows, investor confidence in the region, and complicate European efforts to coordinate a maritime security response. 

Kabir Taneja, Executive Director, Observer Research Foundation, Middle East Office 

• Asian economies are facing energy security risks due to disrupted GCC supply flows, particularly for import-dependent states lacking strategic reserves. 

• Rising energy prices are driving inflation across Asia, pushing governments to explore multilateral coordination mechanisms, though these efforts remain limited in effectiveness. 

• Control and contestation over the Strait of Hormuz make Iran more strategically relevant, with geographic proximity and recent disruptions signaling its intent to shape regional security dynamics. 

• The U.S. is the only actor with the capacity to lead mine-clearing and maritime security operations, with other capable states, such as Japan and South Korea, only able to participate effectively under its security umbrella due to escalation risks. 

• Iran has incentives to maintain the Strait’s status as an international waterway, as global dependence on energy flows, including its own, reinforces pressure to preserve freedom of navigation. 

Ali Bakir, Assistant Professor of International Affairs, Security, and Defense, Qatar University 

• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts not only energy markets but also critical industrial supply chains (petrochemicals, helium, plastics), amplifying global economic shocks.  

• Supply disruptions lead to higher food prices by increasing costs of fertilizers, agricultural production, and transportation. 

• Rise in energy prices will increase inflation, decrease GDPs and impact countries with financial problems and rely on imported energy. 

• The crisis reveals the fragility of narrow trade chokepoints, reinforcing the urgency of diversifying energy sources and trade routes globally. 

• The U.S. blockade strategy aims to economically pressure Iran into reopening the Strait, particularly under pressure from states dependent on Iranian exports. 

• Regional dynamics are shifting toward alternative security arrangements: Pakistan emerges as a credible mediator; proposals for a Turkiye-Saudi-Pakistan-led framework (potentially including Iran and Egypt) could reduce external dependence.  

• GCC countries need to: increase their domestic defense capabilities, increase security diversification strategies, and, lastly, rework their existing security architecture with the involvement of countries like Turkiye, Egypt and Pakistan.