Toward a New Middle East?

The Middle East stands at a critical inflection point in its modern security history. Following a large-scale escalation involving the United States and Israel — including direct strikes on Iranian leadership and military infrastructure and the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — the region faces profound uncertainty. Tehran has responded with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. assets and regional partners, while heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about maritime security and the stability of global energy markets. Simultaneously, renewed hostilities involving Iran-aligned actors in Lebanon and intensified exchanges between Hezbollah and Israeli forces signal the risk of broader regional spillover.

Beyond the immediate military exchanges, the death of Iran’s long-serving Supreme Leader introduces a consequential internal dimension. Questions surrounding succession, elite cohesion, and the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will shape not only Iran’s domestic trajectory but also its regional posture. Will Tehran adopt a more confrontational strategy to consolidate internal authority, or could leadership transition generate recalibration in foreign policy priorities?

Against this backdrop, the Middle East Council on Global Affairs (ME Council) will convene an online expert panel to assess how these developments may reshape the regional order and the security architecture that underpins it. The discussion will examine whether the current escalation represents a breakdown of established deterrence frameworks or the emergence of a more volatile balance of power. Panelists will explore how regional middle powers are recalibrating their strategies, how patterns of alignment may evolve, and what role external actors will play in structuring the next phase of regional security.

Particular attention will be devoted to the Gulf region. As U.S. military facilities across the Gulf face direct threats and energy markets confront renewed volatility, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states must navigate heightened risk while reassessing long-term defense strategies. Will this crisis accelerate deeper regional defense integration? Will Gulf states diversify security partnerships beyond traditional alliances? And what might a more autonomous, regionally driven security architecture look like in practice?

Bringing together leading regional and international experts, this timely discussion will provide forward-looking analysis of the strategic shifts now underway and their implications for the future stability of the Middle East.

Mahjoob Zweiri 

• There are two key views in this war: one concerns the perception of this war by Iran, with the dominant understanding being that this war is a fundamental threat to the regime and its establishment, while the second view is in terms of its cost. Iran, not so unlike Israel in Lebanon and Gaza, is viewing this as a war of attrition, making all parties involved pay as high a cost as Iran.  
• The lack of purpose and cause for the beginning of this war makes its end unpredictable. Like the 12-day war in June 2025, the situation could change dramatically without prior hints. Since for Iran the ultimate goal is regime survival, they are willing to overlook the massive economic and global cost of this war.  
• The post-war situation in Iran is crucial to regional security. Should the country deteriorate into a failed state or if the regime feels more empowered by this war, both pose security, economic,c and political challenges to the region. 
• The succession after Ali Khamenei will be difficult given his influential leadership. However, the regime’s priority remains survival, meaning the next leadership will focus less on ideological divisions and more on maintaining stability while shaping a more radical relationship with the United States and rejecting normalization with the Western world. 

Mohammad Baharoon 

• Iran is intentionally raising the economic cost of the war, extending its impact beyond the region to the global economy, including energy prices affecting consumers as far as the United States. 
• Iran’s targeting of GCC states, despite their attempts to de-escalate tensions, has transformed the conflict into an existential security challenge for Gulf countries. 
• Significant shifts are emerging in the region’s security architecture, with reduced reliance on the United States and growing momentum toward deeper intra-Gulf security cooperation through shared systems, intelligence, and resources. 
• Although the United States is increasingly viewed as a challenge in regional dynamics, it remains a crucial security and investment partner that GCC states cannot replace in the short term, even as they prioritize greater defense self-reliance. 
• Despite escalating tensions, diplomacy remains part of the GCC’s strategic calculation toward Iran, whose historical traits of survivability and adaptability suggest that negotiation may still be possible. 

Mohammad Abu Rumman 

• The October 7th war changed the regional security dynamics; who are the regional powers, what are the rules, and the relationship between the sub-security systems with competing visions like that of the GCC states, Iran, and Israel. 
• Another shift between these two wars was in Israeli security theory, moving from defense to offense, in order to establish itself as the new regional hegemon. 
• Gulf countries are rethinking their security structure and whether they will consider more involvement in the Abraham Accords, rekindling the understanding of a delinking between the Middle East and Gulf security through the Accords. 
• The old order has collapsed in the region, and a new power struggle is about to emerge, with wider implications for countries such as Iraq, whose sectarian political system and religious affiliations will be shaken as a result of this war and changing perceptions about Iran as an ally or an enemy. 
• The Iranian regime is torn between two opposing wars: an external war waged against the US and Israel, and an internal war fought against the opposition movements recently breaking out in protest.